MLB · Tue, Jun 16 · 7:10 PM

Mets at Reds

O/U 11.5 · RL Reds -2.5 · Great American Ball Park

GARY'S PICK

MLB@ Reds· -124

We are live under the partly cloudy skies of Great American Ball Park as the New York Mets look to shake off a brutal blowout and establish their dominance behind a returning ace, while the Cincinnati Reds aim to keep their bats blazing in this high-stakes NL clash. The public is overreacting to Cincinnati's 12-0 victory yesterday, but that has created value on the Mets at -124 on the moneyline. While the Mets’ bullpen was pushed to its limits after throwing 8.0 innings in Monday's loss, this game is defined by how the starting pitchers match up against the opposing lineups. The Mets are sending six left-handed hitters to face Brady Singer, who is defenseless against lefties, allowing a massive .997 OPS and .346 average to them. Superstar Juan Soto, sporting a 1.006 OPS against righties, is a nightmare matchup for Singer’s sinker-slider mix, especially with the 9 mph wind blowing from right to left aiding the Mets' lefties pulling the ball. The strongest counterargument to backing the Mets is the clear rust risk for Kodai Senga, who is making his first appearance since late April due to injury, combined with New York's heavily taxed middle relief. Senga’s surface-level 9.00 ERA is alarming, but the market is overpaying for a fragile number here. Senga's underlying metrics show significant positive regression indicators, with his expected ERA sitting at 4.76 and his opponent xwOBA at .339 compared to an actual .417 wOBA. Even if Senga is limited, the Mets' offense is primed for a major bounce-back. Yesterday, they moved runners constantly but suffered from bad luck, leaving 12 men on base and going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. They now face a struggling Singer, whose 5.61 ERA is backed by a 5.80 expected ERA, and the Reds have lost seven straight of his starts while he has yielded 9 home runs in his last 22.2 innings. While the Reds' offense had a banner day on Monday, they remain without Elly De La Cruz, which reduces their overall speed and pressure on the basepaths. Senga’s elite "Ghost Fork" remains a premium put-away pitch that can neutralize right-handed bats like Eugenio Suarez, preventing them from repeating yesterday's blowout. This is a classic spot where the market is inflating Cincinnati's value based on a single blowout while underestimating New York's immense tactical advantage. Expect the Mets to strike early, leverage their extreme platoon advantage, and walk away with a much-needed victory to even the series.

The strongest counterargument to backing the Mets is the clear rust risk for Kodai Senga, who is making his first appearance since late April due to injury, combined with New York's heavily taxed middle relief. Senga’s surface-level 9.00 ERA is alarming, but the market is overpaying for a fragile number here. Senga's underlying metrics show significant positive regression indicators, with his expected ERA sitting at 4.76 and his opponent xwOBA at .339 compared to an actual .417 wOBA. Even if Senga is limited, the Mets' offense is primed for a major bounce-back. Yesterday, they moved runners constantly but suffered from bad luck, leaving 12 men on base and going 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position. They now face a struggling Singer, whose 5.61 ERA is backed by a 5.80 expected ERA, and the Reds have lost seven straight of his starts while he has yielded 9 home runs in his last 22.2 innings.

While the Reds' offense had a banner day on Monday, they remain without Elly De La Cruz, which reduces their overall speed and pressure on the basepaths. Senga’s elite "Ghost Fork" remains a premium put-away pitch that can neutralize right-handed bats like Eugenio Suarez, preventing them from repeating yesterday's blowout. This is a classic spot where the market is inflating Cincinnati's value based on a single blowout while underestimating New York's immense tactical advantage. Expect the Mets to strike early, leverage their extreme platoon advantage, and walk away with a much-needed victory to even the series.

The pick & result

Published pick: Mets ML -124
Published odds: -124
Result: Lost
Final score: 3-5

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Injuries noted

Reds: [NEW] Elly De La Cruz (SS) — Hamstring (Right): De La Cruz (hamstring) is scheduled to begin running Tuesday and Wednesday, and will begin his rehab assignment on Friday with Triple-A Gwinnett, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. (Jun 16 — 0d ago) [NEW] Pierce Johnson (RP) — Elbow (Right): Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to face live hitters in a simulated game or batting practice Monday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [NEW] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Saturday and is expected to throw another Monday, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) is slated to begin a rehab assignment Thursday in the rookie-level Arizona Complex League, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (Jun 14 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Graham Ashcraft (RP) — Elbow (Right): Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 3 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back (Not Specified): Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 25d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 39d ago) Mets: [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Lindor (calf) played three innings in a simulated game Friday, and he could begin an official rehab assignment Monday, MLB.com reports. (Jun 16 — 0d ago) [NEW] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): Mauricio (thumb) could begin a rehab assignment later this week, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (Jun 15 — 0d ago) [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): An MRI on Polanco's left ankle/Achilles tendon came back negative Tuesday, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [NEW] Christian Scott (SP) — Hip (Right): The Mets placed Scott on the 15-day injured list Monday due to a right hip impingement. (Jun 15 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Robert (spine) said Thursday that his back has been responding better in recent days and he expects to return before the end of this season, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports. (Jun 11 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Tyrone Taylor (CF) — Hip (Right): Taylor (hip) began running this past week but has yet to resume full baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (Jun 8 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Waddell (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre. (May 31 — 15d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 28d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 39d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs (Not Specified): The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 39d ago)

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

STARTER FORM

Brady Singer is dealing: 3.60 ERA over his last 3 starts
3.60
The last 3 times out: 15 innings, 6 earned runs, 13 Ks. That 3.60 ERA sits 2.01 runs under his 5.61 season number.

BATTER VS ARM

Juan Soto is 4-for-10 (.400) off Brady Singer
.400
Juan Soto's career line off Brady Singer is 4-for-10, a .400 average over 10 at-bats — they meet again tonight. He enters steady (.777 OPS, L15).

PLATOON EDGE

A.J. Ewing (bats L) hits 5th against Brady Singer (RHP)
.810
Over 80 AB vs. Right, A.J. Ewing owns a .810 OPS versus .408 in 28 AB the other way. He sees RHP Brady Singer tonight hitting 5th, where the platoon side lines up his way.

HEAT CHECK

Bo Bichette is scorching: 1.018 OPS in Last 15 Days
1.018
That 1.018 OPS spans the last 15 days (53 PA) against a .662 season baseline, a 0.356 swing. He has 8 home runs on the season. His total-bases line tonight: 0.5.

COOLING OFF

Sal Stewart cold (.584 OPS, L15) — draws RHP Kodai Senga
.584
Sal Stewart's .584 OPS over the last 15 days (49 PA) trails his .787 season mark, down 0.203. Tonight he draws RHP Kodai Senga — his weaker side: a .755 OPS vs RHP across 207 AB.

BALLPARK

Brady Singer owns a 4.50 ERA at Great American Ball Park — 6.32 everywhere else
4.50
Across 5 games (24 IP) at this venue, Brady Singer has a 4.50 ERA against 6.32 at his other parks (37 IP). Hitters bat .293 off him here. He draws the start here tonight.

REGRESSION

Kodai Senga: 9 ERA vs 4.76 xERA
4.76
Kodai Senga carries a 9 ERA against a 4.76 expected ERA (4.24 run gap), so he has been underperforming his contact quality. Opponents hit .313 off him vs a .247 expected (xBA). Most lines price off his season ERA, which may not reflect that gap.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored June 16, 2026 at 11:28 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, fanatics, draftkings, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

GARY'S PICK
KODAI SENGAPITCHER OUTS UNDER 14.5
MLBMets· -130
✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 12
Kodai Senga's durability and command have been major issues in 2026, leading to early exits in a majority of his appearances. He failed to reach 5.0 innings (15 outs) in three of his five starts, logging outings of 2.2, 3.1, and 2.1 innings. His 1.95 WHIP and tendency to walk batters (13 BB in 20 IP) consistently drive up his pitch counts, shortening his leash. Furthermore, this is Senga's first start back from the 15-day IL due to ulnar nerve and spine issues that have sidelined him since late April; the Mets are likely to monitor his workload closely in a high-scoring park. Against a Reds offense that just scored 12 runs in the series opener, Senga faces a high risk of another abbreviated outing.
Kodai Senga
Pitcher Outs under 14.5
-130 · CASHED · ACTUAL 12
Mets
Kodai Senga's durability and command have been major issues in 2026, leading to early exits in a majority of his appearances. He failed to reach 5.0 innings (15 outs) in three of his five starts, logging outings of 2.2, 3.1, and 2.1 innings.
His 1.95 WHIP and tendency to walk batters (13 BB in 20 IP) consistently drive up his pitch counts, shortening his leash. Furthermore, this is Senga's first start back from the 15-day IL due to ulnar nerve and spine issues that have sidelined him since late April; the Mets are likely to monitor his workload closely in a high-scoring park.
Against a Reds offense that just scored 12 runs in the series opener, Senga faces a high risk of another abbreviated outing.
GARY'S PICK
JJ BLEDAYTOTAL BASES OVER 1.5
MLBReds· +125
LOST · ACTUAL 0
JJ Bleday enters this matchup as the Reds' most consistent power threat, leading the team with 13 home runs and a .953 OPS. He faces Kodai Senga, who has struggled significantly with command and performance against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .366 batting average and a 1.079 OPS to the platoon. Bleday has been on a hot streak, recording at least two total bases in four of his last five games, including performances of 5 and 4 total bases. The hitter-friendly environment of Great American Ball Park (1.1 park factor) further amplifies Bleday's power potential against a pitcher who has allowed five home runs in just 20.0 innings of work this year. Batting second in the lineup, Bleday will see high volume (4-5 PA) to clear this line.
JJ Bleday
Total Bases over 1.5
+125 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Reds
JJ Bleday enters this matchup as the Reds' most consistent power threat, leading the team with 13 home runs and a .953 OPS. He faces Kodai Senga, who has struggled significantly with command and performance against left-handed hitters this season, surrendering a .366 batting average and a 1.079 OPS to the platoon.
Bleday has been on a hot streak, recording at least two total bases in four of his last five games, including performances of 5 and 4 total bases. The hitter-friendly environment of Great American Ball Park (1.1 park factor) further amplifies Bleday's power potential against a pitcher who has allowed five home runs in just 20.0 innings of work this year.
Batting second in the lineup, Bleday will see high volume (4-5 PA) to clear this line.
THE LONG SHOT
JUAN SOTOHR OVER 0.5
MLBMets· +285
LOST · ACTUAL 0
Juan Soto is in an elite statistical position tonight facing Brady Singer. Singer has struggled immensely against left-handed power this season, surrendering 11 home runs in just 159 at-bats to lefties—a rate of one home run every 14.4 at-bats. Soto, who hits from the left side, enters this game with a 1.006 OPS against right-handed pitching and has shown significant power recently with home runs in two of his last three games. The venue, Great American Ball Park, is notorious for its short fences and high home run factor (1.1), which significantly boosts the profile of an elite fly-ball hitter like Soto. Given Singer's inability to suppress left-handed slugging, Soto is the primary candidate to capitalize on a pitcher who has lost seven consecutive starts.
Juan Soto
HR over 0.5
+285 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Mets
Juan Soto is in an elite statistical position tonight facing Brady Singer. Singer has struggled immensely against left-handed power this season, surrendering 11 home runs in just 159 at-bats to lefties—a rate of one home run every 14.4 at-bats.
Soto, who hits from the left side, enters this game with a 1.006 OPS against right-handed pitching and has shown significant power recently with home runs in two of his last three games. The venue, Great American Ball Park, is notorious for its short fences and high home run factor (1.1), which significantly boosts the profile of an elite fly-ball hitter like Soto.
Given Singer's inability to suppress left-handed slugging, Soto is the primary candidate to capitalize on a pitcher who has lost seven consecutive starts.
THE LONG SHOT
JJ BLEDAYHR OVER 0.5
MLBReds· +280
LOST · ACTUAL 0
JJ Bleday is the hottest hitter in the Reds' lineup, having launched three home runs over his last five games, including one in yesterday's series opener. He faces Kodai Senga, who has been historically vulnerable to left-handed hitters since returning from the IL. Senga is allowing a 1.079 OPS and a .366 batting average to lefties, and his command has been a major liability, evidenced by his 1.95 WHIP and 9.00 ERA. Senga's tendency to fall behind in counts (13 walks in 20.0 IP) will likely force him to throw strikes to Bleday, who currently leads the Reds with 13 home runs and a .953 OPS. In the hitter-friendly environment of Cincinnati, Bleday's current trajectory and Senga's lack of command against lefties create a high-probability power opportunity.
JJ Bleday
HR over 0.5
+280 · LOST · ACTUAL 0
Reds
JJ Bleday is the hottest hitter in the Reds' lineup, having launched three home runs over his last five games, including one in yesterday's series opener. He faces Kodai Senga, who has been historically vulnerable to left-handed hitters since returning from the IL.
Senga is allowing a 1.079 OPS and a .366 batting average to lefties, and his command has been a major liability, evidenced by his 1.95 WHIP and 9.00 ERA. Senga's tendency to fall behind in counts (13 walks in 20.0 IP) will likely force him to throw strikes to Bleday, who currently leads the Reds with 13 home runs and a .953 OPS.
In the hitter-friendly environment of Cincinnati, Bleday's current trajectory and Senga's lack of command against lefties create a high-probability power opportunity.

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