Reds at Mets
O/U 7.5 · RL Reds -1.5 · Citi Field
Reds ML-118
CONF 85%
WCashedFinal 7-2
The read
We're under the lights at Citi Field as the surging Cincinnati Reds look to secure a series victory against a reeling New York Mets squad. The defining feature of this contest is the stark contrast on the mound. Cincinnati hands the ball to rookie sensation Chase Burns, who has been nothing short of dominant, carrying a 1.83 ERA and a microscopic 0.95 WHIP. He is missing bats at an elite clip and enters this matchup in peak form, having allowed one or fewer runs in four consecutive starts. On the other side, the Mets turn to David Peterson, who has labored heavily this season. Peterson is carrying a 5.03 ERA and a bloated 1.55 WHIP, consistently putting traffic on the basepaths. More concerning for New York is his severe vulnerability in this exact environment, holding an 8.41 ERA in night games and a 6.33 ERA at his home park.
The offensive context only widens the gap between these two teams. Cincinnati has built a lineup specifically designed to punish left-handed pitching, stacking eight right-handed bats against Peterson tonight. Switch-hitting star Elly De La Cruz anchors this attack, bringing a massive .971 OPS against southpaws to the plate, while Tyler Stephenson and rookie Blake Dunn have both proven highly effective in these exact platoon splits. The Reds are swinging the bats with authority, plating seven or more runs in three of their last four games. Conversely, the Mets' lineup is in a severe rut, managing just four total runs over their current four-game losing streak. While they receive a boost with Juan Soto returning to the designated hitter spot, a fresh injury absence to Tyrone Taylor leaves this outfield thin and the lineup lacking the depth required to consistently threaten an elite arm like Burns.
When the starters eventually exit, the situation heavily favors the visitors. Peterson has failed to complete six innings in any of his last five starts, meaning the Mets will likely have to expose a shaky, taxed middle relief corps early in the game. Cincinnati's bullpen is in a much stronger position, largely because Burns consistently pitches deep into his starts and limits the exposure of their relievers. The Reds are playing with significant momentum and hold all the tangible advantages in terms of starting pitching, platoon matchups, and overall offensive firepower. With the Mets struggling to manufacture run support and attempting to snap a losing skid, Cincinnati is perfectly positioned to control this matchup from the first pitch and secure a decisive road victory.
Injuries noted
Mets: [NEW] Tyrone Taylor (CF) — Hip (Right): Taylor (hip) will be sent for an MRI, but the team expects that he'll require a stint on the injured list, Andrew Tredinnick of The Bergen Record reports. (May 26 — 0d ago) [NEW] Francisco Alvarez (C) — Knee (Right): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Monday that Alvarez (knee) has already resumed hitting and could return well before his projected eight-week timetable, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (May 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Francisco Lindor (Shortstop) — Calf (Left): Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Monday that Lindor (calf) has begun a running progression, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports. (May 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Jorge Polanco (Second Baseman) — Achilles (Left): Polanco (Achilles) has been taking live at-bats at the Mets' spring training complex at St. Lucie and could begin a rehab assignment soon, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports. (May 25 — 1d ago) [NEW] Kodai Senga (Starting Pitcher) — Back (Not Specified): Senga (back) gave up two earned runs on four hits and a walk over 3.1 innings in a rehab start for Single-A St. Lucie on Friday. He struck out two. (May 23 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Clay Holmes (SP) — Leg (Right): The Mets transferred Holmes (fibula) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Tuesday. (May 19 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Robert Jr. (Center Fielder) — Back (Not Specified): Mets manger Carlos Mendoza said Tuesday that Robert (back) is still experiencing lingering symptoms and "is not progressing the way we would like," Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports. (May 12 — 14d ago) [KNOWN] Kevin Herget (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports. (May 8 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Justin Hagenman (Relief Pitcher) — Ribs: The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture. (May 8 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Ronny Mauricio (SS) — Thumb (Left): The Mets placed Mauricio (thumb) on the 10-day injured list Sunday. (May 8 — 18d ago) Reds: [NEW] Hunter Greene (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Greene (elbow) threw a successful bullpen session Tuesday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 26 — 0d ago) [NEW] Rhett Lowder (SP) — Shoulder (Right): Lowder (shoulder) is expected to face hitters Wednesday, MLB.com reports. (May 26 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Ke'Bryan Hayes (3B) — Back: Hayes is out of the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Phillies. (May 22 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Emilio Pagan (RP) — Hamstring (Left): Pagan (hamstring) is throwing from his knees in order to keep throwing while not putting stress on his strained hamstring, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox19.com reports. (May 20 — 6d ago) [KNOWN] Jose Trevino (C) — Hamstring (Left): Trevino is expected to miss 3-to-4 weeks after being diagnosed with a Grade 1 left hamstring strain, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports. (May 18 — 8d ago) [KNOWN] Brandon Williamson (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday. (May 8 — 18d ago)
Props on this game
2Chase BurnsOVER 6.5 Strikeouts Strikeouts-118
WActual 8
Chase Burns is arguably the most dominant young arm in baseball right now, entering this matchup with a 1.83 season ERA and a massive strikeout surge. Over his last five starts, he is averaging over 10 strikeouts per nine innings and has consistently pitched deep into games (at least 6 innings in 4 of his last 5).
He faces a New York Mets offense that has completely bottomed out, scoring only four runs over their current four-game losing streak. The Mets are currently deploying a lineup filled with high-strikeout rookies and replacements due to injuries to Lindor, Robert Jr., and Alvarez.
Even if Juan Soto plays through his illness, the rest of the order (Benge, Ewing, Melendez, Torrens) offers very little resistance to Burns' high-velocity four-seamer and wipeout breaking stuff. Given the Mets' current 1.0 run-per-game average over the last four games, Burns should work with a lead and have the volume to clear this 6.5 mark comfortably.
Elly De La CruzOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-112
WActual 4
Elly De La Cruz enters this matchup in a prime position to produce against Mets starter David Peterson. While De La Cruz is a threat against anyone, he has been significantly more productive against left-handed pitching this year, posting a .971 OPS.
He faces a struggling Peterson who has been a 'gas can' lately, posting an 8.88 ERA over his last five outings and struggling with both hits (over one per inning) and walks (14 in last 22.3 IP). Elly's speed and power combination makes him a threat to clear this 1.5 HRR line with a single swing (HR) or by drawing a walk and utilizing his league-leading base-running to score.
Batting second in a Reds lineup that has scored 7+ runs in three of their last four games, he will have ample opportunities to drive in runs or be driven in by the equally hot Sal Stewart (.448 AVG) and Spencer Steer.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. In the app you can ride or fade any of them, and your book keeps score against Gary's.
Download on the App Store