Cubs at Pirates
O/U 8.5 · RL Pirates -1.5 · PNC Park
Pirates ML-134
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 1-12
The read
We're under the lights at PNC Park for a pivotal NL Central clash as the reeling Chicago Cubs try to stop the bleeding against the surging Pittsburgh Pirates. The most glaring mismatch in this contest sits right on the mound. Braxton Ashcraft takes the ball for Pittsburgh in peak mid-season form, boasting a brilliant 1.91 ERA over his last four starts and elite command that keeps runners off the basepaths. Conversely, the Cubs are handing the ball to Jordan Wicks for his 2026 season debut. Thrust into action after Edward Cabrera's recent blister issue, Wicks is returning from left elbow inflammation and will inevitably be operating on a strict pitch count. Asking a starter to find his major-league rhythm in his first outing while trying to snap a nine-game losing streak is a monumental task.
The cascading effect of Wicks' expected short outing spells disaster for Chicago's relief corps. With Wicks likely capped around 75 to 85 pitches, the Cubs will be forced to rely on a middle relief unit that has been severely thinned out over the course of the season. Chicago simply does not have the high-leverage bridge required to comfortably suppress the Pirates' bats in the middle innings. On the other side, Pittsburgh holds a massive structural advantage in the late innings. If Ashcraft can hand a lead over to the bullpen, the Pirates can confidently turn to their high-end leverage arms, including Gregory Soto and his 0.79 WHIP, to slam the door.
Offensively, the teams are trending in completely opposite directions. The Cubs are mired in a miserable slump, failing to eclipse two runs in four of their last five games and consistently struggling to capitalize on scoring opportunities. While Chicago's left-handed and switch-hitters like Ian Happ and Michael Busch theoretically get the platoon advantage against Ashcraft, Pittsburgh's pitching staff has already proven they can neutralize this lineup, evident in yesterday's tight 2-1 series-opening victory. With a locked-in starter on the mound, a much more stable bullpen situation, and the confidence of a team playing well in their home ballpark, the Pirates are perfectly positioned to extend Chicago's misery tonight.
Injuries noted
Pirates: [KNOWN] Chris Devenski (RP) — Illness (Not Specified): Devenski (illness) was cleared to resume all baseball activities last week and began throwing bullpen sessions May 13, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. (May 21 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Joey Bart (C) — Foot (Left): Manager Don Kelly said Bart, who is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Rockies, is "banged up," Chris Halicke of DK Pittsburgh Sports reports. (May 12 — 13d ago) [KNOWN] Will Robertson (Left Fielder) — Undisclosed (Not Specified): The Orioles reassigned Robertson to minor-league camp Wednesday, Jacob Calvin Meyer of The Baltimore Sun reports. (May 8 — 18d ago) [NEW] Ryan O'Hearn (RF) — Quadriceps (Right): O'Hearn (quadriceps) worked out in the outfield ahead of Monday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports. (May 25 — 0d ago) Cubs: [KNOWN] Riley Martin (RP) — Elbow (Left): Martin has been diagnosed with flexor strain in his left elbow and is expected to miss eight weeks, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Horton (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday, Andy Martinez of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 18d ago) [NEW] Edward Cabrera (SP) — Finger (Right): Cabrera was removed from Wednesday's game against the Brewers with a blister on his right middle finger, Jared Wyllys of AllCHGO.com reports. (May 24 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Matt Shaw (RF) — Back: Shaw went 3-for-4 with a double, a solo home run and an additional run scored in Wednesday's 5-4 win over the Padres. (May 22 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): The Cubs moved Harvey (triceps) from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday. (May 17 — 9d ago) [KNOWN] Matthew Boyd (SP) — Knee (Left): Boyd (knee) is scheduled to throw off a mound Saturday and is on track for a full bullpen session next week, Tony Andracki of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 15 — 10d ago) [KNOWN] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (May 8 — 18d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): Merryweather (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with the Twins' rookie-level Florida Complex League affiliate Tuesday, Theodore Tollefson of ZoneCoverage.com reports. (May 8 — 18d ago)
Props on this game
2Marcell OzunaOVER 0.5 Total Bases Total Bases-140
WActual 1
Marcell Ozuna provides a high-floor option in this matchup due to his season-long consistency (.311 AVG) and a favorable platoon advantage. Ozuna, a right-handed power hitter, faces the left-handed Jordan Wicks, who is making his 2026 debut and likely faces a limited pitch count and potential rust.
Ozuna has recorded at least one hit (clearing the 0.5 total bases mark) in 7 of his last 10 games, including three multi-hit efforts. As the designated hitter, he is shielded from defensive substitutions and is guaranteed at least 4 plate appearances in a middle-of-the-order role.
Given his ability to drive the ball for extra bases (as seen in his 2-HR game recently), he only needs one single to clear this low threshold against a returning pitcher.
Oneil CruzOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI+100
WActual 5
Oneil Cruz enters this matchup as the hottest hitter in the Pirates' lineup, slashing .366 over his last 10 games with significant power production (3 HR, 10 RBI). He has cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line in 6 of his last 10 contests, frequently recording multi-hit games or multi-RBI performances.
Tonight he faces Jordan Wicks, a left-hander making his season debut after returning from an elbow injury. Pitchers in their first major league start after a long IL stint often struggle with command and consistency, and Cruz is in the perfect form to capitalize on any mistakes.
Batting in the heart of a Pirates order that includes high-OBP threats like Bryan Reynolds and Brandon Lowe, Cruz should have multiple opportunities to drive in runs or score himself, even outside of his own hit production.
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