Yankees at Rangers
O/U 8 · RL Yankees -1.5 · Globe Life Field
Yankees ML-168
CONF 82%
WCashedFinal 4-2
The read
Monday night in Arlington features a heavyweight clash at Globe Life Field as the New York Yankees bring the best record in the American League to town for a high-stakes series opener against the Texas Rangers. The Yankees have been the most consistent team in baseball through the first month, and they are catching a Rangers squad that is currently fundamentally broken when it comes to facing left-handed pitching.
The handicap here starts and ends with Max Fried facing this Texas lineup. The Rangers are hitting a dismal .207 as a team against southpaws this season, ranking near the bottom of the league. Fried is in peak form, coming off an eight-inning masterpiece against Boston, and his historical dominance over the Rangers’ primary weapons is impossible to ignore. Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager, the engines of that Texas offense, have combined for just six hits in 51 career at-bats against Fried. With rookie Wyatt Langford sidelined on the injured list, there simply isn't enough right-handed depth in this Texas order to threaten a pitcher of Fried's caliber.
On the other side, Jack Leiter is a young arm with elite potential, but his 4.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP suggest he is still finding his footing, especially after a recent ankle scare. His biggest weakness is a .414 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters, which is a massive problem against a Yankees lineup starting seven lefties or switch-hitters tonight. Ben Rice is currently one of the hottest hitters in the game, batting .355 with four homers in his last ten starts, and the promotion of Jasson Dominguez adds another elite left-side threat to the middle of the order. The Yankees have the offensive depth to exploit Leiter's splits early and a rested bullpen to lock it down late. I'm laying the juice with the Bronx Bombers.
Injuries noted
Rangers: [NEW] Carter Baumler (RP) — Ribs (Right): Baumler (intercostal) allowed one run on two hits over one inning in a rehab appearance at Triple-A Round Rock last Wednesday. (Apr 26 — 1d ago) [KNOWN] Robert Garcia (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Left): The Rangers placed Garcia on the 15-day injured list Thursday with left shoulder inflammation. (Apr 23 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Wyatt Langford (Left Fielder) — Forearm (Right): The Rangers placed Langford (forearm) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday. (Apr 22 — 5d ago) [KNOWN] Luis Curvelo (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Rangers placed Curvelo on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a right shoulder impingement, Kennedi Landry of MLB.com reports. (Apr 15 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Chris Martin (Relief Pitcher) — Biceps (Right): Martin (1-1) picked up the loss Friday, allowing two runs on two hits over one inning in a 5-3 loss to the Reds. (Apr 15 — 11d ago) Yankees: [NEW] Giancarlo Stanton (Designated Hitter) — Calf (Right): Stanton (calf) will not be placed on the 10-day injured list prior to Monday's game versus the Rangers, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports. (Apr 27 — 0d ago) [NEW] Angel Chivilli (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): The Yankees recalled Chivilli from Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Wednesday. (Apr 25 — 2d ago) [NEW] Gerrit Cole (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Monday that Cole (elbow) will pitch in a rehab game with Double-A Somerset on Wednesday, Erik Boland of Newsday reports. (Apr 27 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Scott Effross (Relief Pitcher) — Oblique (Left): Effross (oblique) will throw a bullpen session Friday, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports. (Apr 2 — 25d ago)
Props on this game
2Jack LeiterUNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs Pitcher Outs-116
LActual 18
Jack Leiter enters this matchup with significant efficiency concerns, evidenced by his 1.46 WHIP and 4.97 ERA through five starts. Most critically, Leiter has failed to record more than 15 outs (5.0 IP) in any of his last five outings, recording exactly 15, 12, 15, 10, and 15 outs respectively.
Facing a Yankees offense that leads the American League in runs per game (5.2) and OPS (.760), Leiter will be forced to navigate a lineup with elite plate discipline and power. The Yankees rank 8th in the league in walks, which typically drives up pitch counts for erratic starters like Leiter.
Furthermore, Leiter is coming off a recent ankle scare, which likely results in a shorter leash if he encounters early trouble. Given his lack of length in recent starts and the elite quality of the opposing lineup, the probability of him completing 5.1 innings is statistically low.
Ben RiceOVER 1.5 H+R+RBI H+R+RBI-130
WActual 4
Ben Rice has become a fixture at the top of the Yankees' order, and his recent production justifies the confidence. Over his last 10 games, Rice is hitting .355 with 4 home runs and 12 RBIs, clearing the 1.5 hits-runs-rbis line in 70% of those contests.
He benefits from a favorable platoon matchup tonight against the right-handed Jack Leiter; Rice has consistently crushed righties this season with a .317 average and 5 home runs. Batting second, Rice is ideally positioned to benefit from the on-base skills of Trent Grisham ahead of him and the elite run-producing power of Aaron Judge and Cody Bellinger directly behind him.
His high walk rate (9 BB in L10) further bolsters his floor for runs scored, as he is frequently on base for the heart of the order to drive him in. Facing a pitcher with a 1.46 WHIP, Rice should see multiple opportunities to produce.
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