Daily archive

2026-04-27

The stored Gary board for Mon, Apr 27. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.

Game picks

MLB6:10 PM

Rays @ Guardians

Monday night at Progressive Field brings a collision of divisional leaders as the red-hot Rays look to extend their winning streak against a Cleveland squad sending their rookie ace to the mound. In thirty years of betting this game, you learn when the weather and the mound matchup are screaming the same thing. Tonight, Steven Matz is walking into a nightmare. He is coming off a shellacking where he served up three homers in three innings, and now he is pitching in a park with a 13 mph wind blowing straight out to left field. For a guy with a 1.85 HR/9 who has surrendered every one of his home runs to righties this year, facing a heart of the order with Jose Ramirez and Rhys Hoskins is a disaster waiting to happen. Ramirez has been elite against southpaws with a 1.049 OPS, and the Guardians are perfectly constructed to pull the ball right into that jet stream. On the other side, Parker Messick is the real deal until proven otherwise. The Guardians are a perfect 5-0 in his starts, and while his 1.76 ERA might see some regression eventually, his 0.88 WHIP tells you he isn't giving away free passes. He has a unique ability to shut down right-handed bats, which neutralizes Tampa Bay’s typical strategy of stacking the lineup against lefties. Having Austin Hedges behind the plate—who is 8-0 in his starts this season—gives the rookie a massive framing advantage that often turns borderline balls into strikes, a factor that does not show up in a box score but absolutely dictates the flow of a game. The Rays are playing well, but their pitching staff is currently held together by tape and prayers. With Steven Wilson being moved to the 60-day IL today and several other key arms already out, their bullpen is thin and prone to giving up the long ball. Tampa Bay ranks 26th in bullpen ERA and has already coughed up 20 homers this season. If Matz gets chased early by this Cleveland lineup, the Rays do not have the fresh, high-leverage arms to stop the bleeding. The Guardians at home with their best arm on the mound is the right side of this equation.

Guardians ML-138

CONF

78%

MLB6:40 PM

Cardinals @ Pirates

We've got a classic divisional clash at PNC Park tonight where the atmosphere is thick with rivalry and the wind is doing the pitchers some favors. St. Louis arrives on a four-game skid, but looking past the results, their underlying process suggests they’re hitting the ball better than the scoreboard shows, evidenced by a massive 11.5% barrel rate over the weekend. The real story here is the mound matchup and the environment. Dustin May has completely flipped his season around, posting a 1.56 ERA over his last three outings while leaning into a heavy sinker that produces ground balls 54% of the time. That is the gold standard for tonight’s conditions, where a 13-mph wind is blowing directly in from right field. This wind effectively neutralizes the Pirates' biggest offensive threat: their left-handed power. With the breeze knocking down fly balls, Pittsburgh's primary left-handed bats like Brandon Lowe and Ryan O'Hearn lose their leverage, forcing them to beat a pitcher who thrives on keeping the ball out of the air. Meanwhile, the Pirates are scrambling with a bullpen game after losing scheduled starter Braxton Ashcraft to the bereavement list just 48 hours ago. Starting a lefty opener in Mason Montgomery against Jordan Walker is a dangerous game, as Walker is currently sporting a massive 1.193 OPS against southpaws. Behind Montgomery is rookie Wilber Dotel, who has shown significant command issues with a 1.88 WHIP in his limited MLB action. While the Cardinals' bullpen is undeniably fatigued, Dustin May is the one pitcher in this matchup capable of working deep into the seventh to protect his relievers. I’m betting on the veteran arm and the wind-aided matchup advantage to snap the Cardinals' streak at a plus-money price.

Cardinals ML+104

CONF

68%

MLB7:07 PM

Red Sox @ Blue Jays

It is a high-tension night at Rogers Centre as the reigning AL champion Blue Jays look to stabilize their season behind their $210 million ace against a Red Sox squad navigating one of the most turbulent weeks in franchise history. While both teams are hovering near the bottom of the division, the statistical gulf between the two starting pitchers tonight is wide enough to drive a truck through. Dylan Cease has been nothing short of a revelation for Toronto, leading the American League with a staggering 15.4 K/9 and a 2.10 ERA. Even if he runs high pitch counts, his ability to miss bats is the ultimate equalizer against a Boston lineup that is mentally taxed following the sudden firing of Alex Cora. On the other side, Ranger Suarez is a massive regression candidate. While his 4.00 ERA looks serviceable, his underlying 4.99 xERA and 4.90 FIP suggest he has been living on borrowed time. Suarez has struggled to get through five innings in the majority of his starts this year, and he is walking into a buzzsaw tonight. The Blue Jays are starting seven right-handed hitters specifically to exploit the southpaw Suarez. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a certified lefty-slayer this season, carrying a .412 average and a massive 1.330 OPS against left-handed pitching. Even with George Springer and Andres Gimenez sidelined today, the middle of this Toronto order—featuring Guerrero, Kazuma Okamoto, and Eloy Jimenez—is perfectly positioned to punish a pitcher who allows as much hard contact as Suarez does. Furthermore, the Red Sox bullpen is in a precarious spot. Their primary high-leverage arms, including Aroldis Chapman and Garrett Whitlock, are coming off back-to-back usage in yesterday's win. If Suarez exits early as the data predicts, interim manager Chad Tracy will be forced to lean on a middle relief unit that is ill-equipped to handle Toronto's righty-heavy power. With Cease on the mound and a significant platoon advantage, the Blue Jays are the clear side here.

Blue Jays ML-138

CONF

85%

MLB7:40 PM

Angels @ White Sox

It is a breezy, desperation-soaked night on the South Side as two struggling clubs try to stop the bleeding at Rate Field. Both teams are mired in fourth place and reeling from multi-game losing streaks, but the tactical alignment for this opener points toward a specific advantage for the visitors despite their recent bullpen meltdown. The deciding factor tonight is the staggering mismatch between the Angels' lineup and White Sox starter Anthony Kay. Kay enters this game with a 7.73 xERA, the kind of number that suggests every ball put in play is a high-velocity threat. He has struggled immensely with command, walking 15 batters in just 21 innings, and he faces a Los Angeles lineup specifically built to punish left-handed pitching. The Angels are rolling out eight right-handed or switch-hitting bats, including Mike Trout and Zach Neto. Given that all four home runs Kay has surrendered this season have come against righties, he is walking into a tactical buzzsaw. Even with the Angels losing catcher Logan O’Hoppe to a wrist fracture yesterday, the veteran presence of Travis d’Arnaud stabilizes a lineup that should feast on Kay’s lack of control. While Jack Kochanowicz is overperforming his own peripherals, he is a significantly more stable option than Kay, particularly against this Chicago roster. Kochanowicz boasts a 2.77 career ERA against the White Sox and relies on a heavy 50% ground-ball rate. This style is perfectly suited for tonight's conditions, as a massive 20-mph wind blowing in from right field will act as a natural equalizer against the White Sox's primary power threats. Specifically, MLB home run leader Munetaka Murakami and shortstop Colson Montgomery—both left-handed—will be hitting directly into that gale. If Kochanowicz can maintain his history of success against Chicago and pitch deep enough to bypass the middle of a weary Angels bullpen, the Los Angeles offense should provide more than enough run support to snap their three-game skid.

Angels ML-108

CONF

65%

MLB7:40 PM

Mariners @ Twins

The lights are on at Target Field as the Minnesota Twins (12-16) look to snap out of a mid-April funk against a Seattle Mariners (14-15) squad that has been playing some of the most efficient baseball in the American League over the last week. While the surface-level momentum points directly toward the Pacific Northwest, the underlying metrics of this pitching matchup suggest the value is sitting right in the home dugout. The core of this play is the massive divergence in pitching quality that the standard ERA doesn't capture. Luis Castillo is struggling with a 1.71 WHIP and has historically been a punching bag at this venue, carrying a dismal 6.85 career ERA in Minneapolis. He faces a Twins lineup specifically constructed with six left-handed or switch hitters to exploit his command issues, all while a 14-mph wind is blowing out to the short porch in right field. On the other side, rookie Connor Prielipp is the definition of a "buy-low" candidate. His 4.50 ERA hides an elite 2.63 xERA and a 1.00 WHIP from his debut; he isn't just a placeholder, he’s a high-strikeout southpaw with a slider that is already flashing elite potential. Seattle’s recent .380 batting average against lefties is an unsustainable outlier that is bound for a reality check against a pitcher with Prielipp’s profile. While the Mariners get Josh Naylor back in the cleanup spot today after a one-game absence, the Twins are in a classic "reset spot" returning home for a long stand. With Minnesota's lineup stacking lefties like Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach to take advantage of the wind and Castillo's location struggles, I’m taking the plus money on the home dog. The market is paying too much attention to the win streaks and not enough to the fact that the Twins have the better-performing arm on the mound tonight.

Twins ML+110

CONF

68%

NBA8:00 PM

Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

The lights are bright in Central Florida tonight as the Eastern Conference's top seed tries to avoid a 3–1 series hole against an Orlando Magic squad that has turned the Kia Center into a fortress. While Detroit dominated the regular season with 60 wins, they have struggled to find their rhythm in a series that has slowed to a grueling half-court pace, favoring Orlando’s physical defensive identity. The primary factor driving this pick is Orlando's dominance in the possession game. Through three playoff games, the Magic have successfully neutralized Detroit’s offensive efficiency by winning the shot-volume battle. Orlando is averaging 12.7 offensive rebounds per game in the series while forcing the Pistons into 17.7 turnovers per contest—nearly three more than Detroit's season average. This pressure has directly impacted Detroit’s stars; while Cade Cunningham is scoring at a high volume, his nine turnovers in Game 3 highlight a lack of ball security that Orlando is ruthlessly exploiting. Additionally, the regression of Jalen Duren, who is averaging just 9.0 PPG in the series compared to 19.5 in the regular season, has allowed Wendell Carter Jr. to control the interior and give Orlando a significant second-chance scoring edge. Furthermore, the situational context heavily favors the home underdog. Orlando (45-37) is a perfect 3–0 at home against Detroit (60-22) this season, including the regular season, with an average margin of victory of 9.0 points. Detroit’s bench production has also cratered under playoff pressure, dropping from a 36.3% scoring share during the regular season to just 23.3 PPG in this series. With Kevin Huerter’s availability in question following a scoreless Game 3 and Orlando’s bench getting healthier with the return of Jevon Carter and Jett Howard, the Magic possess the depth and momentum to keep this game within a possession or win it outright. Getting 3.5 points with a team that has clearly solved the #1 seed's offensive puzzle is the sharp play tonight.

Orlando Magic +4-110

CONF

72%

MLB8:05 PM

Yankees @ Rangers

Monday night in Arlington features a heavyweight clash at Globe Life Field as the New York Yankees bring the best record in the American League to town for a high-stakes series opener against the Texas Rangers. The Yankees have been the most consistent team in baseball through the first month, and they are catching a Rangers squad that is currently fundamentally broken when it comes to facing left-handed pitching. The handicap here starts and ends with Max Fried facing this Texas lineup. The Rangers are hitting a dismal .207 as a team against southpaws this season, ranking near the bottom of the league. Fried is in peak form, coming off an eight-inning masterpiece against Boston, and his historical dominance over the Rangers’ primary weapons is impossible to ignore. Brandon Nimmo and Corey Seager, the engines of that Texas offense, have combined for just six hits in 51 career at-bats against Fried. With rookie Wyatt Langford sidelined on the injured list, there simply isn't enough right-handed depth in this Texas order to threaten a pitcher of Fried's caliber. On the other side, Jack Leiter is a young arm with elite potential, but his 4.97 ERA and 1.46 WHIP suggest he is still finding his footing, especially after a recent ankle scare. His biggest weakness is a .414 wOBA allowed to left-handed hitters, which is a massive problem against a Yankees lineup starting seven lefties or switch-hitters tonight. Ben Rice is currently one of the hottest hitters in the game, batting .355 with four homers in his last ten starts, and the promotion of Jasson Dominguez adds another elite left-side threat to the middle of the order. The Yankees have the offensive depth to exploit Leiter's splits early and a rested bullpen to lock it down late. I'm laying the juice with the Bronx Bombers.

Yankees ML-168

CONF

82%

NBA9:30 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns

The Phoenix Suns walk into the Mortgage Matchup Center tonight facing a 0-3 deficit against a relentless Oklahoma City squad looking to hammer home a sweep. While double-digit spreads are usually a red flag for road favorites in the postseason, the statistical profile of this series suggests the Thunder are simply operating at a level the Suns cannot reach. Oklahoma City has controlled the tempo and the efficiency in all three games, posting a postseason Net Rating of +8.9 while the Suns have bottomed out at -12.6 during this series. The defining characteristic of this matchup is the massive disparity in ball security. Oklahoma City is playing nearly perfect basketball, averaging a playoff-low 8.7 turnovers per game, while Phoenix has seen their turnover rate spike to 17.7% over their last five games. In Game 3, the Thunder turned those Phoenix mistakes into easy transition opportunities, negating the Suns' marginal advantage on the offensive glass. Even without Jalen Williams, the Thunder's depth has held firm; rookie Ajay Mitchell has been fearless in the starting lineup, and the return of Isaiah Joe to the second unit provides a spacing threat that Phoenix’s bench—which contributed a meager 12 points on Saturday—simply cannot match. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is putting on a clinical performance that the Phoenix defense, led by Oso Ighodaro and Dillon Brooks, has no answer for. SGA’s 42-point masterclass on 15-of-18 shooting in the last game wasn't an outlier; it was a continuation of a season where he led the league in clutch scoring. While Dillon Brooks has stepped up with high-volume scoring, Devin Booker’s efficiency has plummeted to 37.5% from the field in the most recent contest. With OKC winning four of the five head-to-head meetings this season by double digits and the Suns' defensive rating ballooning to 119.5 in the playoffs, I'm laying the points with the top seed to finish the job.

Oklahoma City Thunder -11-114

CONF

82%

MLB9:40 PM

Cubs @ Padres

A rematch of the 2025 NL Wild Card series kicks off under the lights at Petco Park as the Chicago Cubs look to snap a short skid against a San Diego Padres team that has spent the last month as one of the hottest squads in the National League. This is a classic surface-versus-substance matchup where the betting market is paying a premium for a Padres record (18-9) that might be hiding some cracks in the foundation. The case for the Cubs (17-11) starts with the massive discrepancy in starting pitching value. Randy Vasquez has been a darling for San Diego, with the team going 5-0 in his starts, but his 1.88 ERA is a house of cards sitting on a 4.33 xERA. He’s been remarkably lucky, and tonight he faces a Chicago offense that ranks second in MLB with a 122 wRC+. On the flip side, Matthew Boyd is the ultimate buy-low candidate. His 5.79 ERA is bloated by one bad outing, but his 1.86 xFIP and elite 39.3% strikeout rate indicate he is pitching like an ace. Most importantly, San Diego has been abysmal against left-handed pitching this season, posting a bottom-five 77 wRC+. Boyd has historically owned this park with a 1.59 career ERA at Petco, and his high-strikeout profile is a nightmare for a Padres lineup currently struggling to make meaningful contact against southpaws. While the Cubs' bullpen is currently navigating a crisis with eight relievers on the shelf, the return of Phil Maton tonight provides a critical stabilizer for the high-leverage innings. The Padres’ advantage with Mason Miller at the back end is real, but the Cubs' defense—which leads the league in runs prevented—should keep this close enough for their superior lineup to get to Vasquez before the San Diego bullpen becomes the primary factor. We’re getting the better offense and the better underlying pitcher at near-even money. I’ll take the stuff over the luck every time.

Cubs ML-102

CONF

68%

MLB10:10 PM

Marlins @ Dodgers

The lights are bright at UNIQLO Field as the reigning champion Dodgers look to extend their National League lead against a rebuilding Marlins squad in this series opener. This matchup is defined by the massive disparity between the two arms on the mound. Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been the picture of efficiency this season, churning out five consecutive quality starts while maintaining a stellar 2.48 ERA and a 5.60 K/BB ratio. He isn’t just getting outs; he’s eating innings and dominating hitters for 6.0 or more frames every time he touches the rubber. Conversely, Chris Paddack has been a significant liability for Miami, entering tonight winless in five starts with a bloated 6.38 ERA. Paddack’s biggest issue has been the long ball—surrendering five home runs already—and bringing that struggle into a stadium with a breeze blowing out toward right-center against lefties like Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Max Muncy is a recipe for a short night. While the Dodgers are without Mookie Betts, their depth has proven more than capable of absorbing the blow. Young contributors like Andy Pages and Hyeseong Kim are providing high-level production, and the team’s 11-4 home record suggests they are nearly untouchable at Dodger Stadium. Miami, on the other hand, possesses the worst road record in the National League at 3-9 and is prone to defensive lapses, leading the league with 21 errors. Even with the fresh activation of Christopher Morel providing some much-needed power to the Marlins' lineup, they are facing a Dodgers bullpen that is fully rested and statistically elite. The market has priced this as a mismatch for a reason. With a rested Dodgers relief core ready to back up Yamamoto’s consistency and a lineup that routinely punishes fly-ball pitchers like Paddack, the Marlins are fighting an uphill battle. Expect the Dodgers' power and defensive discipline to be the deciding factors as they look to capitalize on Miami’s road struggles and overall lack of stability in the rotation.

Dodgers -1.5-152

CONF

85%

Player props

MLB · Rays @ Guardians

Jose Ramirez

José Ramírez enters this matchup in an ideal situational spot. Facing LHP Steven Matz, Ramírez moves to the right side of the plate where he has been significantly more dangerous this season, hitting four of his six home runs against southpaws.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-135

· 4 of 6 HR came against LHP this season
· Opposing SP Matz allowed 3 HR in 3 IP last start
· Wind blowing 13 mph OUT to Left Field (J-Ram's pull side as RHH)

MLB · Rays @ Guardians

Yandy Diaz

Yandy Díaz is currently the hottest hitter in the Rays' lineup, punctuated by a massive 5-for-6 performance and a .351 average over his last 10 games. While he faces a tough young lefty in Parker Messick, Díaz is a perennial 'lefty-crusher' and holds a career .910 OPS against Cleveland pitching. As the leadoff hitter, Díaz is guaranteed the highest volume of plate appearances, and his ability to put the ball in play (only 5 strikeouts in his last 37 at-bats) minimizes the risk against a pitcher with Messick's profile. Given his current streak and historical comfort against this opponent, he is well-positioned to clear the H+R+RBI line.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-125

· .351 AVG (13-for-37) over last 10 games
· 5-for-6 performance in most recent outing
· Career .910 OPS against Cleveland pitching

MLB · Cardinals @ Pirates

Brandon Lowe

Brandon Lowe faces a triple-threat of negative factors tonight that make his 1.5 total bases line an attractive Under. First, he is in the midst of a significant slump, hitting just .167 over his last 10 games and failing to record more than a single in 9 of those 10 outings.

UNDER 1.5 Total Bases-157

· Brandon Lowe: .167 AVG (6-for-36) over last 10 games
· Lowe: Under 1.5 Total Bases in 9 of last 10 games
· Weather: 13 mph wind blowing straight in from RF (Lowe's pull side)

MLB · Cardinals @ Pirates

Jordan Walker

Jordan Walker is the clear offensive engine for the Cardinals right now, and tonight's matchup against southpaw Mason Montgomery plays directly into his primary strength. Walker has been elite against left-handed pitching this season, posting a 1.193 OPS and .318 average.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+126

· Jordan Walker: .318 AVG / 1.193 OPS vs LHP this season
· Walker: 4 HR and 11 RBI in last 10 games (.306 AVG)
· Mason Montgomery: LHP starter with 1.50 WHIP

MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Dylan Cease

Dylan Cease is the most dominant strikeout pitcher in the American League through the first month of 2026, racking up 44 strikeouts in just 25.2 innings. He faces a Red Sox lineup that is currently in organizational free-fall following the firing of Alex Cora and is struggling immensely with contact.

OVER 7.5 Strikeouts-110

· 44 strikeouts in 25.2 innings (15.4 K/9)
· Recorded 12 strikeouts in 2 of last 5 starts
· Red Sox lineup includes three starters hitting under .200 in L10 (Story, Duran, Mayer)

MLB · Red Sox @ Blue Jays

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is the hottest hitter in this series, entering with a .351 average over his last 10 games and 13 total hits in that span.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-138

· Hitting .351 with 13 hits in his last 10 games
· Ranger Suarez xERA is 4.99 (0.99 higher than actual ERA)
· Recorded multiple hits in 4 of his last 7 games

MLB · Angels @ White Sox

Mike Trout

The most consistent element of Mike Trout's 2026 performance has been his elite plate discipline. Over his last 10 games, Trout has drawn 13 walks, recording at least one walk in eight of those contests.

OVER 0.5 Walks-189

· 13 walks in last 10 games (80% hit rate)
· Opposing SP Anthony Kay 5.85 BB/9 rate (13 BB in 20 IP)
· Angels lineup protection reduced with Logan O'Hoppe on IL

MLB · Angels @ White Sox

Munetaka Murakami

Munetaka Murakami is in the midst of a significant cold stretch, batting just .100 over his last 30 at-bats. While he possesses elite power, he has cleared this 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs line only once in his last 10 games.

UNDER 1.5 H+R+RBI+110

· Hitting .100 (3-for-30) over his last 10 games
· 20 mph wind blowing directly IN from right field (power alley)
· Under this line in 9 of his last 10 games

MLB · Mariners @ Twins

Randy Arozarena

Randy Arozarena has a massive platoon advantage tonight against rookie left-hander Connor Prielipp. Arozarena is slashing .360 with a .974 OPS against left-handed pitching this season.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+140

· Randy Arozarena .360 AVG / .974 OPS vs LHP this season
· Mariners team hitting .380 vs LHP over the last five games
· Target Field wind blowing 14 mph OUT to RF tonight

MLB · Mariners @ Twins

Byron Buxton

Byron Buxton is currently the most consistent power threat in a struggling Twins lineup, batting .286 with three home runs over his last 10 games. He faces Luis Castillo, who has been unusually vulnerable this season with a 5.01 ERA and a bloated 1.71 WHIP.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases+115

· Byron Buxton .286 AVG with 3 HR over his last 10 games
· Luis Castillo 5.01 ERA and career 6.85 ERA at Target Field
· Target Field wind blowing 14 mph OUT to RF favoring fly balls

NBA · Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

Jalen Duren

Jalen Duren has hit a statistical wall in this series. While he was a double-double machine in the regular season (19.5 PPG), the playoff matchup against Orlando's interior wall has been a nightmare for him. He is averaging just 9.0 points through the first three games, failing to reach even 12 points in any single contest.

UNDER 15.5 Points-105

· 9.0 PPG series average vs Orlando Magic (8, 11, and 8 points)
· 5.0 fouls per game in the series, limiting court time to 27 MPG
· Detroit paint scoring limited to 42.7 PPG over the last three games

NBA · Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic

Paolo Banchero

Paolo Banchero has established himself as the clear alpha in this series, averaging 22.0 PPG and coming off a dominant 25-point performance in Game 3. His scoring profile is built for the playoffs; unlike perimeter-reliant shooters, Banchero generates nearly 30% of his points from the free-throw line, giving him a massive floor even on nights when his jumper isn't falling.

OVER 21.5 Points-104

· 22.0 PPG series average (25, 18, 23 in first three games)
· 27.4% usage rate as the primary offensive engine for Orlando
· 28% of total scoring comes from the free-throw line, a high floor in playoff environments

MLB · Yankees @ Rangers

Jack Leiter

Jack Leiter enters this matchup with significant efficiency concerns, evidenced by his 1.46 WHIP and 4.97 ERA through five starts. Most critically, Leiter has failed to record more than 15 outs (5.0 IP) in any of his last five outings, recording exactly 15, 12, 15, 10, and 15 outs respectively.

UNDER 15.5 Pitcher Outs-116

· Leiter has not exceeded 15 outs (5.0 IP) in any of his last 5 starts.
· Yankees lead the AL in runs per game (5.2) and OPS (.760).
· Leiter carries a 1.46 WHIP and 4.97 ERA into the matchup.

MLB · Yankees @ Rangers

Ben Rice

Ben Rice has become a fixture at the top of the Yankees' order, and his recent production justifies the confidence. Over his last 10 games, Rice is hitting .355 with 4 home runs and 12 RBIs, clearing the 1.5 hits-runs-rbis line in 70% of those contests.

OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI-130

· Rice is batting .355 with 4 HR and 12 RBI over his last 10 games.
· Rice has cleared 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in 7 of his last 10 games.
· Rice hits .317 with a 1.156 OPS against right-handed pitching.

NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at a level that Phoenix simply cannot solve. In this series, he is averaging nearly 35 points per game and is coming off a 42-point masterclass where he was nearly perfect from the floor.

OVER 31.5 Points-111

· 34.7 PPG in this series
· 42 points on 15-of-18 FG in Game 3
· 32.3% Usage Rate with Jalen Williams (OUT) absent from lineup

NBA · Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns

Dillon Brooks

The market has not fully adjusted to the radical role shift Dillon Brooks has undergone in Phoenix following the roster restructuring. Brooks has 'officially assumed an incredible and unlikely role,' leading the Suns in scoring for two consecutive games with 30 and 33 points.

OVER 17.5 Points-114

· 30 and 33 points in the last two playoff games
· 30.4% Team Field Goal Attempt share during this series
· Averaging 22.8 PPG over his last five games overall

MLB · Cubs @ Padres

Randy Vasquez

Randy Vasquez has emerged as the Padres' most consistent arm early in 2026, and his strikeout metrics are significantly undervalued at this line. Over his last five starts, Vasquez has tallied 30 strikeouts in 28.2 innings, averaging over a strikeout per inning.

OVER 4.5 Strikeouts+140

· 30 K in last 28.2 IP (9.42 K/9)
· Cleared 4.5 K in 4 of last 5 starts
· Cubs lineup features high-K targets like Ian Happ and PCA

MLB · Cubs @ Padres

Ty France

Ty France has been a model of consistency since returning to San Diego, currently hitting .341. Tonight he gets a premium matchup against Matthew Boyd, a left-hander who has struggled significantly with hit suppression and efficiency since returning to the rotation.

OVER 0.5 Total Bases-164

· Hitting .341 on the season
· Facing Matthew Boyd who has a 7.73 ERA in last 5 starts
· Boyd has allowed 22 hits and 4 HR in his last 18.1 innings

MLB · Marlins @ Dodgers

Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani has fully rediscovered his power stroke, entering this series with 4 home runs in his last 10 games and multi-hit performances in each of his last two outings. He faces Chris Paddack, a right-handed veteran who has been heavily susceptible to the long ball this season, surrendering five home runs in just 22.4 innings of work.

OVER 1.5 Total Bases-130

· 4 HR in last 10 games (scorching power surge)
· Facing Chris Paddack (6.38 ERA, 5 HR allowed in 22.4 IP)
· LAD leads NL with 5.7 runs per game average

MLB · Marlins @ Dodgers

Chris Paddack

Chris Paddack has struggled to provide length for the Marlins all season, failing to record the 15th out (5.0 full innings) in 80% of his last five starts. His inability to suppress power—highlighted by 5 home runs allowed in limited action—makes him a poor matchup against a Dodgers lineup stacked with left-handed power hitters like Ohtani, Freeman, Tucker, and Muncy. With a 6.38 ERA and a high WHIP, Paddack consistently allows baserunners, driving up his pitch count early and forcing the Marlins to turn to their bullpen by the 4th or 5th inning. While the market favors the over, Paddack's recent performance trajectory (three starts under 13 outs in his last four) and the quality of the opposing offense suggest he will be chased from the game before completing the fifth inning.

UNDER 14.5 Pitcher Outs+130

· Failed to record 15 outs in 4 of last 5 starts (4.2, 4.2, 4.0, 4.0 IP)
· Dodgers offense features 4 elite lefties in the top 6 of the order
· 6.38 ERA and 1.6+ WHIP indicates frequent traffic on the bases

NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Ayo Dosunmu

With superstar Anthony Edwards and key rotation piece Donte DiVincenzo both ruled out tonight, Minnesota faces a massive scoring deficit that Ayo Dosunmu is primed to exploit. Dosunmu has already established himself as a primary offensive engine in this series, exploding for 25 and 43 points in his last two outings.

OVER 20.5 Points+105

· Averaging 34.0 PPG over last two playoff games
· Anthony Edwards (OUT) and Donte DiVincenzo (OUT) leave massive usage vacuum
· 37.0% shooting from 3 in L5 games provides high-efficiency floor

NBA · Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic

Facing elimination at home, the Nuggets will rely on Nikola Jokic for maximum minutes and production. Jokic has been a monster on the glass throughout this series, securing exactly 15 rebounds in each of the last three games.

OVER 13.5 Rebounds-128

· Cleared 13.5 rebounds in 3 of 4 games this series (15, 15, 15)
· 40.2% team rebound share leads the Nuggets roster
· Averaged 38.5 minutes in the last two elimination games (historical context)

Graded results

Games

L
Guardians ML -138
MLB · 3-2
W
Cardinals ML +104
MLB · 4-2
L
Blue Jays ML -138
MLB · 5-0
L
Angels ML -108
MLB · 7-8
W
Twins ML +110
MLB · 4-11
W
Orlando Magic +4 -110
NBA · 88-94
W
Yankees ML -168
MLB · 4-2
L
Oklahoma City Thunder -11 -114
NBA · 131-122
L
Cubs ML -102
MLB · 7-9
L
Dodgers -1.5 -152
MLB · 4-5

Props

L
Ayo Dosunmu · over
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets · Actual 18
W
Ben Rice · over
Yankees @ Rangers · Actual 4
W
Brandon Lowe · under
Cardinals @ Pirates · Actual 0
W
Byron Buxton · over
Mariners @ Twins · Actual 4
W
Chris Paddack · under
Marlins @ Dodgers · Actual 12
W
Dillon Brooks · over
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns · Actual 23
L
Dylan Cease · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 5
L
Jack Leiter · under
Yankees @ Rangers · Actual 18
W
Jalen Duren · under
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic · Actual 12
L
Jordan Walker · over
Cardinals @ Pirates · Actual 0
L
Jose Ramirez · over
Rays @ Guardians · Actual 1
W
Mike Trout · over
Angels @ White Sox · Actual 1
L
Munetaka Murakami · under
Angels @ White Sox · Actual 6
L
Nikola Jokic · over
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets · Actual 12
L
Paolo Banchero · over
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic · Actual 18
W
Randy Arozarena · over
Mariners @ Twins · Actual 2
L
Randy Vasquez · over
Cubs @ Padres · Actual 4
L
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander · over
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns · Actual 31
W
Shohei Ohtani · over
Marlins @ Dodgers · Actual 4
W
Ty France · over
Cubs @ Padres · Actual 5
L
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. · over
Red Sox @ Blue Jays · Actual 0
L
Yandy Diaz · over
Rays @ Guardians · Actual 1