Cubs at Dodgers
O/U 9.5 · RL Dodgers -1.5 · Dodger Stadium
Cubs ML+108
CONF 78%
WCashedFinal 6-4
The read
Under the bright lights of FOX at Dodger Stadium, the red-hot Chicago Cubs look to push their winning streak to 11 against a Dodgers squad searching for answers. This matchup features a stark contrast in starting pitching reliability that the market hasn't fully accounted for yet, providing a massive opportunity on the plus-money side. Colin Rea enters this contest as the definition of a stabilized anchor for the Cubs' rotation, carrying a 3.00 ERA and a lean 1.04 WHIP through his recent starts. On the other side, Roki Sasaki is struggling significantly in his transition to the big leagues. Despite the massive hype, Sasaki's 6.11 ERA and 1.87 WHIP are backed by a concerning 14.1% walk rate, which is a recipe for disaster against a Cubs lineup currently averaging over seven runs per game during this streak.
The Sasaki experience has been a series of short, high-stress outings where he has only completed five innings once in four starts this season. His inability to find the strike zone—evidenced by his 11 walks in his last 13.2 innings—means the Dodgers' bullpen will likely be tasked with another heavy workload tonight. That is a massive problem because the Los Angeles relief corps is reeling after blowing a four-run lead yesterday. High-leverage arms like Tanner Scott and Alex Vesia are coming off a night where they both surrendered runs and threw high-stress pitches. With the news that Dodgers catcher Will Smith is a late scratch today due to a back issue, Sasaki loses his most experienced battery mate and a key bat that provided much of the team's offense yesterday.
Chicago isn't just winning; they are dominating the margins and playing with a level of confidence that is hard to bet against. Their defense is currently ranked #1 in MLB with +11 Outs Above Average, providing Rea with an elite safety net that allows him to pitch to contact efficiently. Meanwhile, the Cubs' bats are relentless, led by Moisés Ballesteros and Ian Happ, who are posting barrel rates that have significantly outpaced the Dodgers over the last week. When you combine a starting pitcher who is struggling to find the zone with a bullpen that is both taxed and searching for confidence, you don't bet against the hottest team in baseball. I'm taking the value on the Cubs to keep the streak alive and secure Craig Counsell’s 900th career win.
Injuries noted
Dodgers: [KNOWN] Landon Knack (Starting Pitcher) — Chest (Not Specified): The Dodgers placed Knack on the 15-day injured list Monday due to an intercostal strain, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports. (Mar 25 — 31d ago) [NEW] Will Smith (Catcher) — Back: Smith isn't in the starting lineup Saturday versus the Cubs due to a tight back, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports. (Apr 25 — 0d ago) [NEW] Edwin Diaz (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Diaz shared on his personal Instagram account Wednesday that he underwent surgery on his throwing elbow. (Apr 22 — 2d ago) [KNOWN] Mookie Betts (Shortstop) — Oblique (Right): Betts (oblique) resumed swinging a bat over the weekend, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports. (Apr 20 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Ben Casparius (Relief Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Casparius said Saturday at DodgerFest, the team's fan event, that he prepared himself as a starting pitcher this offseason, Steve Webb of DodgersBeat.com reports. (Apr 13 — 11d ago) [KNOWN] Gavin Stone (Starting Pitcher) — Shoulder (Right): Stone (shoulder) has resumed throwing, per MLB.com. (Apr 3 — 21d ago) Cubs: [NEW] Caleb Thielbar (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): The Cubs placed Thielbar on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left hamstring strain. (Apr 24 — 0d ago) [NEW] Porter Hodge (Relief Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): The Cubs transferred Hodge (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 24 — 0d ago) [KNOWN] Julian Merryweather (Relief Pitcher) — Hamstring (Left): The Twins reassigned Merryweather (hamstring) to minor-league camp Monday. (Mar 22 — 34d ago) [NEW] Phil Maton (Relief Pitcher) — Knee (Right): Maton (knee) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Iowa on Friday, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports. (Apr 23 — 2d ago) [NEW] Hunter Harvey (Relief Pitcher) — Triceps (Right): Harvey (triceps) will restart his throwing program Friday, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Apr 21 — 3d ago) [KNOWN] Daniel Palencia (Relief Pitcher) — Lat (Left): Manager Craig Counsell said Tuesday that Palencia underwent an MRI that revealed a lat strain, Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports. (Apr 21 — 4d ago) [KNOWN] Cade Horton (Starting Pitcher) — Elbow (Right): Horton (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Thursday and is expected to be sidelined up to 16 months, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports. (Apr 18 — 7d ago) [KNOWN] Ethan Roberts (Relief Pitcher) — Undisclosed: The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with an undisclosed injury. (Apr 14 — 11d ago)
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- Board stored April 25, 2026 at 10:39 AM ET.
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