Athletics at Yankees

It is a chilly Thursday afternoon in the Bronx as the Athletics and Yankees settle their series in a rubber match that screams starting pitching disparity. While the 8-3 Yankees have the glitz and the home-field advantage, the value in this matchup sits squarely with the visiting side at a price that doesn't reflect the reality of the two men on the mound. Jeffrey Springs is currently pitching like an ace, sporting a 0.97 WHIP and coming off a dominant performance where he surrendered just two hits over six innings. More importantly, Springs has a documented history of neutralizing the Yankees' heavy hitters; he has limited Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to a combined one hit in eleven career at-bats, striking out Judge five times.

The Yankees are currently asking Ryan Weathers to be a bridge starter for a rotation missing its three best arms, and the results have been shaky. Weathers has struggled to navigate lineups more than once through, failing to complete five innings in either of his starts this season while laboring with a 1.88 WHIP. This lack of length is a massive problem for a New York bullpen that is already gasping for air. The Yankees used four primary relievers in yesterday’s loss, including closer David Bednar, who looked vulnerable while throwing 21 pitches. If Weathers is chased by the fourth or fifth inning—as his recent form suggests—the Yankees will be forced to rely on a taxed middle relief corps against an Oakland lineup that has been specifically constructed today with seven right-handed bats to exploit him.

The betting market is putting a heavy premium on the Yankees' record and their star power, but the underlying data tells a different story. New York has been stagnant against left-handed pitching recently, posting a meager 67 wRC+, and today they face a high-level lefty who matches up perfectly against their power profiles. While Oakland is resting a couple of key bats for this getaway day, they are sending the best player on the field to the mound in Springs. In a game where the 48-degree temperature and an 8-mph wind blowing in from right field will suppress scoring, give me the better starter and the plus-money price every single time. Tight games are decided by who can provide length and who has the fresher arms in the eighth; right now, those edges belong to Oakland.