Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m riding the Cubs because Matthew Boyd keeps traffic light with a 1.07 WHIP, and his 146 strikeouts show he finishes hitters when he gets the lead. Pittsburgh’s bats fit that profile, as Bryan Reynolds has 168 strikeouts and Henry Davis is hitting .159, so Boyd can get ahead and stay out of the big inning. I respect Johan Oviedo’s 2.81 ERA, but over the long haul Chicago’s 87-64 form tells me their lineup cashes chances better than a 65-87 Pirates group. Even if Oviedo’s .176 opponent average keeps it tight, Carson Kelly’s 43 walks give the Cubs the patient at-bats to push a run across, so I’ll take the moneyline instead of laying the hook.