Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals

I’m laying it with Atlanta because Trevor Williams’ 6.21 ERA and .310 opponent average scream constant traffic, and this Braves lineup will turn those baserunners into crooked numbers—have the guts to ride the run line with me. Drake Baldwin has 34 walks, which tells me they won’t chase, and that plays right into Williams’ 1.54 WHIP that keeps innings alive. On the other side, AJ Smith-Shawver’s 3.86 ERA paired with a .249 opponent average should steady things against a light Washington order. If Smith-Shawver’s 1.42 WHIP puts a few on, the Nats’ power behind CJ Abrams is limited, with Daylen Lile sitting at 6 homers, so that traffic is less likely to flip the result today.