Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals

I’m riding Pittsburgh on the moneyline because Mike Burrows’ 3.99 ERA and .236 opponent average should keep Washington’s contact bats from stringing rallies. Cade Cavalli allows a .296 average, so even a modest Pirates core can get men on and pressure him into mistakes. The risk is Pittsburgh’s swing-and-miss profile, with Bryan Reynolds at 164 strikeouts this year. But Cavalli has only 29 strikeouts in 34.2 innings, which limits his ability to exploit that, and with both lineups light I’d rather bank the ML than chase -1.5 in a likely one-run game.