Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets

I’m backing the Mets because Kodai Senga’s .211 opponent average smothers a Phillies lineup that leans on singles outside Bryce Harper’s 21 homers. Alec Bohm’s .282 bat plays when traffic builds, and Senga’s 2.58 ERA says he doesn’t let that happen often. The risk is Cristopher Sánchez missing bats all night—169 strikeouts in 157 innings—but New York can win without a rally because Lindor, Nimmo, and Mullins have 61 homers and one barrel can flip a tight game. With Senga keeping baserunners scarce and the Mets owning the bigger secondary power, the plus money at home is worth riding if you’ve got the guts.