Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers

I’m backing Cincinnati at plus money because Hunter Greene’s 2.63 ERA and 0.93 WHIP tell me he’s controlling counts and choking off traffic—have the guts to ride with me. The Dodgers’ current bats show holes—Andy Pages has 108 strikeouts in 473 at-bats—and Dalton Rushing’s 45 punchouts in 107 trips pair with Greene’s 91 strikeouts over 72 innings to tilt the whiff battle our way. On the other side, Emmet Sheehan’s 4.17 ERA leaves a window for Cincinnati’s table-setters, and Elly De La Cruz’s 140 hits can force him into stretch work. Sure, the Reds can run hot and cold—Elly’s 143 strikeouts show the risk—but Greene’s .199 opponent average says a low-scoring script still favors us if he keeps L.A. quiet.