Boston Red Sox at Baltimore Orioles

I’m backing Boston because Bernardino has held hitters to a .196 average, and that stingy contact profile punishes an Orioles lineup with swing holes. Baltimore’s middle bats are strikeout prone—Cowser has 79 punchouts in 227 at-bats and Jackson has 20 in 54—so Bernardino can get ahead and dictate. On the other side, Sugano’s .262 batting average against invites traffic for Boston’s core, and Bregman is batting .305 which keeps rallies alive. If there’s a worry it’s Bernardino’s workload, but Baltimore’s lack of on-base pressure—Mayo has 17 walks in 167 at-bats and Cowser just 16 in 227—makes it unlikely the O’s string together the long innings needed to flip this, so take the short road favorite with me.