Boston Red Sox at New York Yankees

I’m backing the Yankees because Max Fried’s 1.12 WHIP translates to clean frames, and his .228 opponent average keeps Boston starved for rallies. Boston’s bottom has soft bats, with Connor Wong at .180 and David Hamilton at .178, which plays into a command lefty who gets quick outs. Bello’s 1.26 WHIP means traffic, and Judge’s 40 homers tell you what happens when pitches leak. The worry is New York’s supporting cast can run cold, but Ben Rice’s 20 homers and Austin Wells’ 17 give enough lift at home to tilt a close one our way—so I’ll take the safer moneyline and make the book blink first.