Los Angeles Angels at Boston Red Sox

I'm rolling with the Red Sox on the moneyline here—Richard Fitts may not have the wins, but his tidy ERA (2.70) and WHIP (1.10) show he's keeping Boston in games, and his .222 BAA says he doesn't give away much. Tyler Anderson's surface numbers are solid (3.39 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, .216 BAA), but Boston's lineup—led by Toro hitting .310—has more contact and fewer strikeout holes than the Angels' boom-or-bust bats, who are striking out at an alarming pace (O'Hoppe 66 K in 178 AB, Soler 63 K in 199 AB). At Fenway, I trust Boston to take advantage of their few consistent hitters and Fitts' ability to stifle the Angels' free swingers—if you want to sweat the spread for bigger odds, be my guest, but I'm locking in the safer win.