Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs

If you’ve got the guts, you take the Cubs on the run line here and pocket the plus money. Pomeranz has been untouchable so far—a microscopic ERA (0.00), WHIP (0.55), and hitters flailing at a .098 average against him—and he’s facing a Reds lineup that, outside of De La Cruz’s pop, is thin and strikeout-prone (71 Ks for De La Cruz alone). Lodolo’s solid, but his .237 BAA and 1.10 WHIP show he lets traffic on, and this Cubs squad has just enough patient sticks (Kelly’s .279 AVG, 22 walks) to make him pay. Chicago’s 35-22 record isn’t a fluke—they know how to win these home games, and with Pomeranz setting the tone, I expect a multi-run cushion by the end.