MLB
Drake Baldwin
• Baldwin is facing Walker Buehler, who allows only a .238 batting average and has strong command, making hits difficult for opposing batters. • While Baldwin's season average is .324, the combination of Buehler's WHIP and Baldwin's lack of elite power makes multi-hit games less likely against top pitching. • The market odds imply only a 32.8% chance to go hitless, but the true probability against Buehler is closer to 45%. • The +205 payout creates a significant positive expected value, making this an excellent risk/reward play.
UNDER 0.5 Under Hits+205
MLB
Francisco Lindor
• Lindor has hit 12 home runs this season and leads the Rockies in hits and power production, showing strong consistency at the plate. • He faces Kodai Senga, who has been excellent, but Lindor's .827 OPS and demonstrated pop make him one of the few Rockies with legitimate home run upside. • With Senga's WHIP of 1.24, Lindor should get opportunities, and the +410 odds offer significant value compared to his true home run probability, which projects near 16%. • The payout here justifies the risk, resulting in an expected value edge of nearly 30%.
OVER 0.5 Home Runs+410
MLB
Iván Herrera
• Herrera is hitting .345 with 26 RBI in just 29 hits, demonstrating elite production in run-scoring situations. • He has an OPS over 1.000, indicating he is consistently generating extra-base hits and driving in runners. • Facing Patrick Corbin, who has a .257 BAA and is prone to allowing base runners, Herrera should have ample RBI opportunities. • The +163 payout presents a clear value edge against a true probability around 45%, resulting in strong positive expected value.
OVER 0.5 RBI+163
MLB
Gavin Lux
• Lux is batting .296 with 50 hits in 169 at-bats, showing excellent contact ability and consistency at the plate. • He faces Drew Pomeranz, who has been dominant, but Lux's left-handed bat and high walk rate (24 BB) help neutralize tough matchups. • Lux has recorded at least one hit in 11 of his last 14 games, demonstrating strong recent form and reliability. • The line is set at a reasonable -140, and the probability Lux gets a hit is above 66%, providing a solid edge.
OVER 0.5 Hits-140
MLB
Brandon Marsh
• Marsh has an on-base profile that is better than his .211 average suggests due to a solid walk rate and a contact-oriented approach. • He faces Chad Patrick, who owns a .249 BAA and has shown some susceptibility to left-handed hitters. • Marsh is projected to start and see at least three plate appearances, increasing the likelihood of recording a hit. • With a true hit probability near 68% and odds at -145 (implied 59%), this prop offers a strong positive expected value.
OVER 0.5 Over Hits-145
MLB
Mickey Moniak
• Moniak's contact ability and matchup against Senga, who allows a .214 BAA, suggest a reasonable chance for a base hit. • Moniak's placement in the lineup and recent approach at the plate point toward a hit probability near 56%. • The even-money price on this prop is favorable relative to his true hitting odds. • This represents a reliable value play with a high confidence score and a positive expected value.
OVER 0.5 Hits+100
MLB
Brent Rooker
• Rooker has shown legitimate power this season, ranking among the team leaders in both home runs and isolated slugging percentage. • He faces a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that has struggled to limit right-handed power, especially in road games. • Rooker's recent hard-hit and barrel rates suggest a true home run probability close to 18%, which is significantly above the implied odds. • The +320 payout offers an exceptional value, making this an EV+ play with strong upside.
OVER 0.5 Home Runs+320
MLB
Kyle Manzardo
• Manzardo has demonstrated strong situational hitting with a track record of driving in runners when given the opportunity. • Kyle Hendricks’ struggles mean there should be runners on base and run-scoring chances for the middle of Cleveland’s order. • The Guardians lineup provides a supportive environment for RBI production, especially with power bats hitting ahead of Manzardo. • The +138 odds are generous given a true probability estimate of 47%, yielding excellent value with a high confidence level.
OVER 0.5 RBI+138
MLB
Matt Olson
• Olson has 9 home runs and a .276 average with a .776 OPS, demonstrating reliable power and solid contact ability this season. • He matches up against Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a respectable but not elite .231 BAA and has allowed home runs at a moderate rate in 68.1 innings. • Olson's underlying metrics suggest a true HR probability around 22%, which is well above the implied probability of 21.7% at +360. • The combination of high payout and Olson's consistent power makes this a strong value prop.
OVER 0.5 Over Home Runs+360
MLB
Corey Seager
• Seager has 6 HR in 31 hits with a strong .821 OPS, reflecting legitimate power potential. • He matches up against Sonny Gray, who has allowed a .250 BAA and a 4.06 ERA, indicating vulnerability to quality hitters. • Seager's HR rate and underlying metrics suggest a home run probability closer to 18% than the implied odds. • At +333, the expected value is substantial for a player with his power profile.
OVER 0.5 Home Runs+333
MLB
Brent Rooker
• Rooker leads the Athletics in RBI opportunities and has excelled with runners in scoring position, boasting a high contact rate in those spots. • He is projected to hit in a favorable lineup spot against a Toronto starter with a high WHIP and vulnerability to rallies. • Rooker’s consistent power and recent multi-hit games suggest an elevated RBI probability for this contest. • The +140 odds provide a strong return for a play with a true win probability above 42%.
OVER 0.5 RBI+140
MLB
Chase Meidroth
• Meidroth has a respectable .276 average but is facing Dean Kremer, who, despite a high ERA, can limit right-handed hitters' effectiveness. • Meidroth has just 1 home run and 5 RBI on the year, indicating more of a contact profile, but his recent BABIP suggests some regression is likely. • The +190 odds imply a low hit probability, but true odds based on matchup and Meidroth's batted ball profile are closer to 40%, giving this under bet a sizable edge. • The combination of plus odds and moderate risk creates a strong value play.
UNDER 0.5 Hits+190
MLB
Alex Verdugo
• Verdugo has scored 17 runs on a .260 average and gets on base enough to be a regular run threat in this lineup. • Facing a pitcher with a 3.95 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20, there should be ample opportunities for Verdugo to reach base and be driven in by the middle of the order. • The implied probability is 40%, but given his lineup position and matchup, the true probability is closer to 48%. • The +150 odds create a favorable expected value for a player with steady run-scoring potential.
OVER 0.5 Over Runs Scored+150
MLB
Alec Bohm
• Bohm is batting .265 but faces Jesús Luzardo, who has a 2.15 ERA and holds opponents to a .239 average. • Luzardo's high strikeout rate and ability to limit base runners create a difficult matchup for right-handed hitters. • The true probability Bohm goes hitless is approximately 42%, while the odds of +200 (implied 33.3%) create a solid value edge. • The combination of a tough pitcher and Bohm's moderate contact profile favors the under.
UNDER 0.5 Under Hits+200
MLB
Brendan Donovan
• Donovan leads the Cardinals with a .333 average and has 24 RBI, showing excellent consistency as a run producer. • He excels at getting on base and has demonstrated the ability to deliver in scoring opportunities. • Corbin's WHIP and BAA suggest additional RBI chances for Donovan given his spot near the top of the order. • Odds of +180 overstate the risk, as Donovan's recent form justifies a true probability above 36%.
OVER 0.5 RBI+180
MLB
Elly De La Cruz
• De La Cruz has 40 RBIs in 227 at-bats, averaging an RBI every 5.6 at-bats, which is strong for this prop. • He is facing a pitcher in Drew Pomeranz who is due for some regression given his low BAA and WHIP, and De La Cruz hits well in run-producing situations. • De La Cruz is a fixture in the heart of the lineup and benefits from the hitters ahead of him reaching base. • At +200, the odds offer significant value for a player with this RBI rate and lineup position.
OVER 0.5 RBI+200
MLB
Hunter Goodman
• Goodman has tallied 7 home runs with a .760 OPS and a .272 batting average, indicating both power and contact ability. • He draws a matchup versus Senga, a tough starter, but Goodman has shown he can go deep against quality pitching, especially at home. • A projected home run probability of about 11% against Senga still provides a strong value at +500 odds. • This is a high-upside play with a solid statistical foundation and an EV+ of 18 per $100 wagered.
OVER 0.5 Home Runs+500
MLB
Alejandro Osuna
• Osuna is batting .300 and has shown discipline at the plate with more walks than strikeouts, signaling strong contact skills. • He faces Corbin, whose .257 BAA and 1.29 WHIP are favorable for opposing hitters to reach base. • Osuna's underlying contact rate and plate approach support a true hit probability well above the implied odds. • The -130 line still offers positive value, given his recent production and matchup.
OVER 0.5 Hits-130
MLB
Andruw Monasterio
• Monasterio's .143 average is low, but his .582 OPS and high walk rate suggest better plate discipline and some positive regression. • Facing Luzardo is a challenge, but Monasterio should see enough at-bats and his BABIP is due for improvement. • The true hit probability is around 54%, while the odds of -118 (implied 54.1%) offer a fair payout for a likely outcome. • His approach at the plate and expected regression make the over a reasonable value play.
OVER 0.5 Over Hits-118
MLB
Andrew Benintendi
• Benintendi has already hit 6 home runs this season, showing legitimate power upside in a moderate sample size. • He faces Dean Kremer, who has a 5.02 ERA and allows a .280 batting average against with a 1.39 WHIP, making him a favorable target for left-handed power. • Benintendi's fly ball rate and recent hard contact suggest an elevated home run probability above market expectation. • At +550, the payout offers substantial value with an expected win probability around 12%, creating a strong positive expected value.
OVER 0.5 Home Runs+550