Sports picks for Saturday, May 31, 2025
28 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
4
Knicks +3.5I’ve watched enough playoff basketball to know the Knicks rarely back down when the chips are down, especially getting points. Indiana’s home floor is no fortress against a New York squad that grinds out possessions and keeps games close with physical defense and late-game poise. With a tight spread like this, I'll gladly take the seasoned, scrappy Knicks plus the points, trusting their veteran core to keep it within a possession down the stretch. If you’ve got the guts to ride with a team built for trench warfare, this is the spot.
I’ve watched enough playoff basketball to know the Knicks rarely back down when the chips are down, especially getting points. Indiana’s home floor is no fortress against a New York squad that grinds out possessions and keeps games close with physical defense and late-game poise. With a tight spread like this, I'll gladly take the seasoned, scrappy Knicks plus the points, trusting their veteran core to keep it within a possession down the stretch. If you’ve got the guts to ride with a team built for trench warfare, this is the spot.
Cubs -1.5If you’ve got the guts, you take the Cubs on the run line here and pocket the plus money. Pomeranz has been untouchable so far—a microscopic ERA (0.00), WHIP (0.55), and hitters flailing at a .098 average against him—and he’s facing a Reds lineup that, outside of De La Cruz’s pop, is thin and strikeout-prone (71 Ks for De La Cruz alone). Lodolo’s solid, but his .237 BAA and 1.10 WHIP show he lets traffic on, and this Cubs squad has just enough patient sticks (Kelly’s .279 AVG, 22 walks) to make him pay. Chicago’s 35-22 record isn’t a fluke—they know how to win these home games, and with Pomeranz setting the tone, I expect a multi-run cushion by the end.
If you’ve got the guts, you take the Cubs on the run line here and pocket the plus money. Pomeranz has been untouchable so far—a microscopic ERA (0.00), WHIP (0.55), and hitters flailing at a .098 average against him—and he’s facing a Reds lineup that, outside of De La Cruz’s pop, is thin and strikeout-prone (71 Ks for De La Cruz alone). Lodolo’s solid, but his .237 BAA and 1.10 WHIP show he lets traffic on, and this Cubs squad has just enough patient sticks (Kelly’s .279 AVG, 22 walks) to make him pay. Chicago’s 35-22 record isn’t a fluke—they know how to win these home games, and with Pomeranz setting the tone, I expect a multi-run cushion by the end.
Blue Jays -1.5Listen, I don’t hand out runlines lightly, but Braydon Fisher’s numbers are eye-popping—an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.48 over 8.1 innings, with hitters barely touching him (.115 BAA). On the other side, Hoglund’s been shaky with a 5.13 ERA and a bloated .275 BAA, and he’s facing a Blue Jays lineup with contact bats like Kirk (.296 AVG) and Bichette (.279 AVG). Oakland’s got one real threat in Jacob Wilson (.344 AVG), but the rest of their order is full of easy outs and strikeout-prone youngsters—exactly the type Fisher can carve up. Jays have the edge in every critical spot, and I see them pulling away late; if you’ve got the backbone for plus money, this is the play.
Listen, I don’t hand out runlines lightly, but Braydon Fisher’s numbers are eye-popping—an ERA of 0.00 and a WHIP of 0.48 over 8.1 innings, with hitters barely touching him (.115 BAA). On the other side, Hoglund’s been shaky with a 5.13 ERA and a bloated .275 BAA, and he’s facing a Blue Jays lineup with contact bats like Kirk (.296 AVG) and Bichette (.279 AVG). Oakland’s got one real threat in Jacob Wilson (.344 AVG), but the rest of their order is full of easy outs and strikeout-prone youngsters—exactly the type Fisher can carve up. Jays have the edge in every critical spot, and I see them pulling away late; if you’ve got the backbone for plus money, this is the play.
Phillies -1.5If you’ve watched Luzardo work this year, you know that 2.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP aren’t just empty calories—he’s stifling lineups with good command and real swing-and-miss stuff (77 SO in 67 IP), and Milwaukee’s top bats outside Turang look downright punchless, with their key guys like Yelich and Durbin both hitting well below .270 (.220 and .213 respectively). Patrick's respectable numbers (2.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) mask the fact that he’s been hittable, facing a Phillies lineup that isn’t flashy but is deep—Sosa’s .312 average sets the table, and Harper brings the thunder when it counts. At home, with the better arm, better lineup, and a Brewers offense prone to strikeouts and soft contact, I see Philly winning this one by multiple runs if you’ve got the stones to ride the run line.
If you’ve watched Luzardo work this year, you know that 2.15 ERA and 1.18 WHIP aren’t just empty calories—he’s stifling lineups with good command and real swing-and-miss stuff (77 SO in 67 IP), and Milwaukee’s top bats outside Turang look downright punchless, with their key guys like Yelich and Durbin both hitting well below .270 (.220 and .213 respectively). Patrick's respectable numbers (2.97 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) mask the fact that he’s been hittable, facing a Phillies lineup that isn’t flashy but is deep—Sosa’s .312 average sets the table, and Harper brings the thunder when it counts. At home, with the better arm, better lineup, and a Brewers offense prone to strikeouts and soft contact, I see Philly winning this one by multiple runs if you’ve got the stones to ride the run line.
Player props
20• Baldwin is facing Walker Buehler, who allows only a .238 batting average and has strong command, making hits difficult for opposing batters. • While Baldwin's season average is .324, the combination of Buehler's WHIP and Baldwin's lack of elite power makes multi-hit games less likely against top pitching. • The market odds imply only a 32.8% chance to go hitless, but the true probability against Buehler is closer to 45%. • The +205 payout creates a significant positive expected value, making this an excellent risk/reward play.
• Baldwin is facing Walker Buehler, who allows only a .238 batting average and has strong command, making hits difficult for opposing batters. • While Baldwin's season average is .324, the combination of Buehler's WHIP and Baldwin's lack of elite power makes multi-hit games less likely against top pitching. • The market odds imply only a 32.8% chance to go hitless, but the true probability against Buehler is closer to 45%. • The +205 payout creates a significant positive expected value, making this an excellent risk/reward play.
• Lindor has hit 12 home runs this season and leads the Rockies in hits and power production, showing strong consistency at the plate. • He faces Kodai Senga, who has been excellent, but Lindor's .827 OPS and demonstrated pop make him one of the few Rockies with legitimate home run upside. • With Senga's WHIP of 1.24, Lindor should get opportunities, and the +410 odds offer significant value compared to his true home run probability, which projects near 16%. • The payout here justifies the risk, resulting in an expected value edge of nearly 30%.
• Lindor has hit 12 home runs this season and leads the Rockies in hits and power production, showing strong consistency at the plate. • He faces Kodai Senga, who has been excellent, but Lindor's .827 OPS and demonstrated pop make him one of the few Rockies with legitimate home run upside. • With Senga's WHIP of 1.24, Lindor should get opportunities, and the +410 odds offer significant value compared to his true home run probability, which projects near 16%. • The payout here justifies the risk, resulting in an expected value edge of nearly 30%.
• Herrera is hitting .345 with 26 RBI in just 29 hits, demonstrating elite production in run-scoring situations. • He has an OPS over 1.000, indicating he is consistently generating extra-base hits and driving in runners. • Facing Patrick Corbin, who has a .257 BAA and is prone to allowing base runners, Herrera should have ample RBI opportunities. • The +163 payout presents a clear value edge against a true probability around 45%, resulting in strong positive expected value.
• Herrera is hitting .345 with 26 RBI in just 29 hits, demonstrating elite production in run-scoring situations. • He has an OPS over 1.000, indicating he is consistently generating extra-base hits and driving in runners. • Facing Patrick Corbin, who has a .257 BAA and is prone to allowing base runners, Herrera should have ample RBI opportunities. • The +163 payout presents a clear value edge against a true probability around 45%, resulting in strong positive expected value.
• Lux is batting .296 with 50 hits in 169 at-bats, showing excellent contact ability and consistency at the plate. • He faces Drew Pomeranz, who has been dominant, but Lux's left-handed bat and high walk rate (24 BB) help neutralize tough matchups. • Lux has recorded at least one hit in 11 of his last 14 games, demonstrating strong recent form and reliability. • The line is set at a reasonable -140, and the probability Lux gets a hit is above 66%, providing a solid edge.
• Lux is batting .296 with 50 hits in 169 at-bats, showing excellent contact ability and consistency at the plate. • He faces Drew Pomeranz, who has been dominant, but Lux's left-handed bat and high walk rate (24 BB) help neutralize tough matchups. • Lux has recorded at least one hit in 11 of his last 14 games, demonstrating strong recent form and reliability. • The line is set at a reasonable -140, and the probability Lux gets a hit is above 66%, providing a solid edge.
• Marsh has an on-base profile that is better than his .211 average suggests due to a solid walk rate and a contact-oriented approach. • He faces Chad Patrick, who owns a .249 BAA and has shown some susceptibility to left-handed hitters. • Marsh is projected to start and see at least three plate appearances, increasing the likelihood of recording a hit. • With a true hit probability near 68% and odds at -145 (implied 59%), this prop offers a strong positive expected value.
• Marsh has an on-base profile that is better than his .211 average suggests due to a solid walk rate and a contact-oriented approach. • He faces Chad Patrick, who owns a .249 BAA and has shown some susceptibility to left-handed hitters. • Marsh is projected to start and see at least three plate appearances, increasing the likelihood of recording a hit. • With a true hit probability near 68% and odds at -145 (implied 59%), this prop offers a strong positive expected value.
• Moniak's contact ability and matchup against Senga, who allows a .214 BAA, suggest a reasonable chance for a base hit. • Moniak's placement in the lineup and recent approach at the plate point toward a hit probability near 56%. • The even-money price on this prop is favorable relative to his true hitting odds. • This represents a reliable value play with a high confidence score and a positive expected value.
• Moniak's contact ability and matchup against Senga, who allows a .214 BAA, suggest a reasonable chance for a base hit. • Moniak's placement in the lineup and recent approach at the plate point toward a hit probability near 56%. • The even-money price on this prop is favorable relative to his true hitting odds. • This represents a reliable value play with a high confidence score and a positive expected value.
• Rooker has shown legitimate power this season, ranking among the team leaders in both home runs and isolated slugging percentage. • He faces a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that has struggled to limit right-handed power, especially in road games. • Rooker's recent hard-hit and barrel rates suggest a true home run probability close to 18%, which is significantly above the implied odds. • The +320 payout offers an exceptional value, making this an EV+ play with strong upside.
• Rooker has shown legitimate power this season, ranking among the team leaders in both home runs and isolated slugging percentage. • He faces a Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff that has struggled to limit right-handed power, especially in road games. • Rooker's recent hard-hit and barrel rates suggest a true home run probability close to 18%, which is significantly above the implied odds. • The +320 payout offers an exceptional value, making this an EV+ play with strong upside.
• Manzardo has demonstrated strong situational hitting with a track record of driving in runners when given the opportunity. • Kyle Hendricks’ struggles mean there should be runners on base and run-scoring chances for the middle of Cleveland’s order. • The Guardians lineup provides a supportive environment for RBI production, especially with power bats hitting ahead of Manzardo. • The +138 odds are generous given a true probability estimate of 47%, yielding excellent value with a high confidence level.
• Manzardo has demonstrated strong situational hitting with a track record of driving in runners when given the opportunity. • Kyle Hendricks’ struggles mean there should be runners on base and run-scoring chances for the middle of Cleveland’s order. • The Guardians lineup provides a supportive environment for RBI production, especially with power bats hitting ahead of Manzardo. • The +138 odds are generous given a true probability estimate of 47%, yielding excellent value with a high confidence level.
• Olson has 9 home runs and a .276 average with a .776 OPS, demonstrating reliable power and solid contact ability this season. • He matches up against Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a respectable but not elite .231 BAA and has allowed home runs at a moderate rate in 68.1 innings. • Olson's underlying metrics suggest a true HR probability around 22%, which is well above the implied probability of 21.7% at +360. • The combination of high payout and Olson's consistent power makes this a strong value prop.
• Olson has 9 home runs and a .276 average with a .776 OPS, demonstrating reliable power and solid contact ability this season. • He matches up against Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a respectable but not elite .231 BAA and has allowed home runs at a moderate rate in 68.1 innings. • Olson's underlying metrics suggest a true HR probability around 22%, which is well above the implied probability of 21.7% at +360. • The combination of high payout and Olson's consistent power makes this a strong value prop.
• Seager has 6 HR in 31 hits with a strong .821 OPS, reflecting legitimate power potential. • He matches up against Sonny Gray, who has allowed a .250 BAA and a 4.06 ERA, indicating vulnerability to quality hitters. • Seager's HR rate and underlying metrics suggest a home run probability closer to 18% than the implied odds. • At +333, the expected value is substantial for a player with his power profile.
• Seager has 6 HR in 31 hits with a strong .821 OPS, reflecting legitimate power potential. • He matches up against Sonny Gray, who has allowed a .250 BAA and a 4.06 ERA, indicating vulnerability to quality hitters. • Seager's HR rate and underlying metrics suggest a home run probability closer to 18% than the implied odds. • At +333, the expected value is substantial for a player with his power profile.
• Rooker leads the Athletics in RBI opportunities and has excelled with runners in scoring position, boasting a high contact rate in those spots. • He is projected to hit in a favorable lineup spot against a Toronto starter with a high WHIP and vulnerability to rallies. • Rooker’s consistent power and recent multi-hit games suggest an elevated RBI probability for this contest. • The +140 odds provide a strong return for a play with a true win probability above 42%.
• Rooker leads the Athletics in RBI opportunities and has excelled with runners in scoring position, boasting a high contact rate in those spots. • He is projected to hit in a favorable lineup spot against a Toronto starter with a high WHIP and vulnerability to rallies. • Rooker’s consistent power and recent multi-hit games suggest an elevated RBI probability for this contest. • The +140 odds provide a strong return for a play with a true win probability above 42%.
• Meidroth has a respectable .276 average but is facing Dean Kremer, who, despite a high ERA, can limit right-handed hitters' effectiveness. • Meidroth has just 1 home run and 5 RBI on the year, indicating more of a contact profile, but his recent BABIP suggests some regression is likely. • The +190 odds imply a low hit probability, but true odds based on matchup and Meidroth's batted ball profile are closer to 40%, giving this under bet a sizable edge. • The combination of plus odds and moderate risk creates a strong value play.
• Meidroth has a respectable .276 average but is facing Dean Kremer, who, despite a high ERA, can limit right-handed hitters' effectiveness. • Meidroth has just 1 home run and 5 RBI on the year, indicating more of a contact profile, but his recent BABIP suggests some regression is likely. • The +190 odds imply a low hit probability, but true odds based on matchup and Meidroth's batted ball profile are closer to 40%, giving this under bet a sizable edge. • The combination of plus odds and moderate risk creates a strong value play.
• Verdugo has scored 17 runs on a .260 average and gets on base enough to be a regular run threat in this lineup. • Facing a pitcher with a 3.95 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20, there should be ample opportunities for Verdugo to reach base and be driven in by the middle of the order. • The implied probability is 40%, but given his lineup position and matchup, the true probability is closer to 48%. • The +150 odds create a favorable expected value for a player with steady run-scoring potential.
• Verdugo has scored 17 runs on a .260 average and gets on base enough to be a regular run threat in this lineup. • Facing a pitcher with a 3.95 ERA and a WHIP of 1.20, there should be ample opportunities for Verdugo to reach base and be driven in by the middle of the order. • The implied probability is 40%, but given his lineup position and matchup, the true probability is closer to 48%. • The +150 odds create a favorable expected value for a player with steady run-scoring potential.
• Bohm is batting .265 but faces Jesús Luzardo, who has a 2.15 ERA and holds opponents to a .239 average. • Luzardo's high strikeout rate and ability to limit base runners create a difficult matchup for right-handed hitters. • The true probability Bohm goes hitless is approximately 42%, while the odds of +200 (implied 33.3%) create a solid value edge. • The combination of a tough pitcher and Bohm's moderate contact profile favors the under.
• Bohm is batting .265 but faces Jesús Luzardo, who has a 2.15 ERA and holds opponents to a .239 average. • Luzardo's high strikeout rate and ability to limit base runners create a difficult matchup for right-handed hitters. • The true probability Bohm goes hitless is approximately 42%, while the odds of +200 (implied 33.3%) create a solid value edge. • The combination of a tough pitcher and Bohm's moderate contact profile favors the under.
• Donovan leads the Cardinals with a .333 average and has 24 RBI, showing excellent consistency as a run producer. • He excels at getting on base and has demonstrated the ability to deliver in scoring opportunities. • Corbin's WHIP and BAA suggest additional RBI chances for Donovan given his spot near the top of the order. • Odds of +180 overstate the risk, as Donovan's recent form justifies a true probability above 36%.
• Donovan leads the Cardinals with a .333 average and has 24 RBI, showing excellent consistency as a run producer. • He excels at getting on base and has demonstrated the ability to deliver in scoring opportunities. • Corbin's WHIP and BAA suggest additional RBI chances for Donovan given his spot near the top of the order. • Odds of +180 overstate the risk, as Donovan's recent form justifies a true probability above 36%.
• De La Cruz has 40 RBIs in 227 at-bats, averaging an RBI every 5.6 at-bats, which is strong for this prop. • He is facing a pitcher in Drew Pomeranz who is due for some regression given his low BAA and WHIP, and De La Cruz hits well in run-producing situations. • De La Cruz is a fixture in the heart of the lineup and benefits from the hitters ahead of him reaching base. • At +200, the odds offer significant value for a player with this RBI rate and lineup position.
• De La Cruz has 40 RBIs in 227 at-bats, averaging an RBI every 5.6 at-bats, which is strong for this prop. • He is facing a pitcher in Drew Pomeranz who is due for some regression given his low BAA and WHIP, and De La Cruz hits well in run-producing situations. • De La Cruz is a fixture in the heart of the lineup and benefits from the hitters ahead of him reaching base. • At +200, the odds offer significant value for a player with this RBI rate and lineup position.
• Goodman has tallied 7 home runs with a .760 OPS and a .272 batting average, indicating both power and contact ability. • He draws a matchup versus Senga, a tough starter, but Goodman has shown he can go deep against quality pitching, especially at home. • A projected home run probability of about 11% against Senga still provides a strong value at +500 odds. • This is a high-upside play with a solid statistical foundation and an EV+ of 18 per $100 wagered.
• Goodman has tallied 7 home runs with a .760 OPS and a .272 batting average, indicating both power and contact ability. • He draws a matchup versus Senga, a tough starter, but Goodman has shown he can go deep against quality pitching, especially at home. • A projected home run probability of about 11% against Senga still provides a strong value at +500 odds. • This is a high-upside play with a solid statistical foundation and an EV+ of 18 per $100 wagered.
• Osuna is batting .300 and has shown discipline at the plate with more walks than strikeouts, signaling strong contact skills. • He faces Corbin, whose .257 BAA and 1.29 WHIP are favorable for opposing hitters to reach base. • Osuna's underlying contact rate and plate approach support a true hit probability well above the implied odds. • The -130 line still offers positive value, given his recent production and matchup.
• Osuna is batting .300 and has shown discipline at the plate with more walks than strikeouts, signaling strong contact skills. • He faces Corbin, whose .257 BAA and 1.29 WHIP are favorable for opposing hitters to reach base. • Osuna's underlying contact rate and plate approach support a true hit probability well above the implied odds. • The -130 line still offers positive value, given his recent production and matchup.
• Monasterio's .143 average is low, but his .582 OPS and high walk rate suggest better plate discipline and some positive regression. • Facing Luzardo is a challenge, but Monasterio should see enough at-bats and his BABIP is due for improvement. • The true hit probability is around 54%, while the odds of -118 (implied 54.1%) offer a fair payout for a likely outcome. • His approach at the plate and expected regression make the over a reasonable value play.
• Monasterio's .143 average is low, but his .582 OPS and high walk rate suggest better plate discipline and some positive regression. • Facing Luzardo is a challenge, but Monasterio should see enough at-bats and his BABIP is due for improvement. • The true hit probability is around 54%, while the odds of -118 (implied 54.1%) offer a fair payout for a likely outcome. • His approach at the plate and expected regression make the over a reasonable value play.
• Benintendi has already hit 6 home runs this season, showing legitimate power upside in a moderate sample size. • He faces Dean Kremer, who has a 5.02 ERA and allows a .280 batting average against with a 1.39 WHIP, making him a favorable target for left-handed power. • Benintendi's fly ball rate and recent hard contact suggest an elevated home run probability above market expectation. • At +550, the payout offers substantial value with an expected win probability around 12%, creating a strong positive expected value.
• Benintendi has already hit 6 home runs this season, showing legitimate power upside in a moderate sample size. • He faces Dean Kremer, who has a 5.02 ERA and allows a .280 batting average against with a 1.39 WHIP, making him a favorable target for left-handed power. • Benintendi's fly ball rate and recent hard contact suggest an elevated home run probability above market expectation. • At +550, the payout offers substantial value with an expected win probability around 12%, creating a strong positive expected value.
Graded results
4Games
- L
New York Knicks +3.5 -106
NBA · 108-125
- W
Chicago Cubs -1.5 +132
MLB · 0-2
- W
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 +122
MLB · 7-8
- L
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 +114
MLB · 17-7