Sports picks for Wednesday, December 10, 2025

TALE OF THE TAPE Oklahoma City Thunder Phoenix Suns Record 23-1 ← 14-10 Off Rating 122.0 ← 112.7 Def Rating 103.1 ← 114.1 Net Rating +18.9 ← -1.5 Key Injuries Hartenstein, Joe, Topic, Livers, Booker, J. Green Sorber Gary's Take I love this spot for Oklahoma City because every pillar of their profile points to a runaway at home. Their big net rating edge is built on elite offense and defense, and Chet Holmgren’s inside-out game (18.6 PPG, 8.1 RPG, 36.4% from three) plus Aaron Wiggins’ shooting (13.8 PPG, 43.4% from deep) give them efficient scoring at all three levels. Combine that with a low turnover rate and heavy trips to the line, and this is a machine that stretches leads quickly. For Phoenix, the story is simple: they’re on the road without Devin Booker (25.0 points and 6.7 assists per game), the engine of their offense. Dillon Brooks and Grayson Allen can score (22.1 and 16.9 PPG), but without Booker’s creation they’re leaning on tougher looks against a Thunder defense that already grades out far better. I see OKC pushing pace, winning the efficiency battle, and building enough separation that only the Suns’ offensive rebounding and a late surge threaten the backdoor. I’m laying Oklahoma City -14.5; only way this misses is if Phoenix really owns the glass and gets hot from three.

TALE OF THE TAPE Los Angeles Lakers San Antonio Spurs Record 17-6 ← 16-7 Off Rating 119.3 ← 117.1 Def Rating 113.8 ← 115.4 Net Rating +5.5 ← +1.7 Key Injuries None McLaughlin, Wembanyama, Wenimmer (OUT) Gary's Take I love this spot for the Lakers because their efficiency edge on both ends shows up over 48 minutes (better offensive rating and a +3.8 net rating gap). Austin Reaves has become the primary scorer, putting up 28.4 points per game (28.4 PPG), and his shot creation pairs perfectly with a team that lives at the line (26.4 free throw attempts per game vs 15.1 for San Antonio). That whistle advantage usually gets even louder at home (7-3 home record). On the other side, San Antonio is relying heavily on perimeter shot-making (38.3% from three on 27.8 attempts) just to keep pace, and losing Victor Wembanyama strips them of their best rim deterrent and interior scoring balance (multiple key players out). The numbers do not lie: the Spurs’ defense is softer and they do not get to the stripe enough to stop runs (worse defensive rating and lower free-throw rate). If this stays close, the Lakers have been flawless in tight games (6-0 in contests decided by five points or fewer), and if it does not, their physicality and depth can blow this open. Here's how I see this playing out: the Lakers attack the paint early, rack up fouls, and live in the bonus, while San Antonio is forced into a jump-shot-heavy game on the road (7-5 away). Over time, that free-throw and defensive edge wears the Spurs down, and Los Angeles stretches this past two possessions in the second half. Lock this in: I’m backing the Los Angeles Lakers -7 (-114) to cover at home.

TALE OF THE TAPE Baylor Bears Norfolk State Spartans Record 0-5 (last 5) 0-5 (last 5) Off Rating -- -- Def Rating -- -- Net Rating +0.0 → +0.0 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take This one's interesting – the efficiency gap here isn't as huge as the logos suggest (both teams sit around a neutral net rating near 0.0). Baylor is clearly the better perimeter shooting team (53.7% effective field goal with 35.1% from three), but Norfolk State actually holds its own inside the arc with comparable overall accuracy (52.3% effective field goal on 47.8% from the floor). Baylor’s advantage shows more in physicality than pure dominance: they create extra possessions and easy points with the glass and whistle (about 15 offensive boards per game plus a 0.402 free-throw rate and 73.8% on 25.8 attempts, versus Norfolk’s 13.1 boards and 0.334 rate with 63.2% on 20.9 attempts). But turnovers are basically even (around 11 per game each), and both teams are on identical cold streaks (each 0-5 in their last five), which tilts this toward a competitive cover rather than a full-on blowout (current number about 27.5 points). Lock it in: Norfolk State Spartans +27.5 -110; Baylor wins comfortably, but asking them to clear this 27.5-point margin against a reasonably efficient opponent is a lot (Norfolk still sits over 52% in effective field goal). Only way this dies is if Baylor catches absolute fire from three and never lets up (they already hit 35.1% from deep, and another bump would be lights-out).

TALE OF THE TAPE Yale Bulldogs UAlbany Great Danes Record 5-0 ← 1-4 Off Rating -- ← -- Def Rating -- ← -- Net Rating -- ← -- Key Injuries None None Gary's Take I love this spot for Yale because the efficiency gap is exactly what you want when you’re laying a big number. Yale shoots it cleaner from everywhere and protects the ball, while UAlbany is much shakier from the perimeter and turns it over more often. Over 40 minutes, that combination means Yale is stacking high-quality possessions while the Great Danes are fighting through empty trips. The numbers don’t lie: Yale’s shooting efficiency, turnover edge, and superior free-throw profile all point the same direction, and recent form backs it up with Yale rolling to multiple comfortable wins while UAlbany has eaten several double-digit road losses. Here’s how I see this playing out: Yale’s guards control the tempo, they get into the paint, live at the line, and slowly stretch this from a 10–12 point game into a full-on blowout midway through the second half. The only real risk is UAlbany’s work on the offensive glass keeping them within striking distance, but Yale’s shot-making and composure at home should be too much. Lock this in: Yale Bulldogs -17.5.

TALE OF THE TAPE Princeton Tigers Merrimack Warriors Last 5 Record 0-5 → 3-2 Shooting (eFG%) 50.0% ← 45.9% Turnovers/G 12.8 → 10.5 Off Reb/G 9.6 ← 8.9 FT% 68.6 → 76.3 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take I love this spot for Princeton. Merrimack comes in with the better recent record, but Princeton has been within a handful of points in each of those losses and owns the edge in overall shooting efficiency and second-chance opportunities. In their home gym, that combination usually breaks a skid. Here’s how I see this playing out: Princeton’s half-court offense generates cleaner looks all night, leveraging its effective field goal and offensive rebounding advantages to control the scoring rhythm, while Merrimack tries to offset it with better ball security and free-throw shooting. Over 40 minutes, the shooting and glass edge should matter more than the recent form narrative. Merrimack’s three-game win streak and Princeton’s losing stretch will keep this number short, but the underlying profile points to the Tigers finally finishing one of these close games with a margin beyond a single bucket. Only way this misses is if Merrimack completely tilts the turnover and free-throw battles; I’m still backing Princeton Tigers -2.5 -114.

TALE OF THE TAPE UMass Lowell Fisher College Recent Form (L5) 2-3 (LWWLL) ← N/A Shooting (eFG%) 50.5% ← 37.8% Turnovers (TO/G) 14.9 → 11.0 Off Rebounds (OReb/G) 11.3 ← 7.0 FT Rate / FTA/G 0.487 / 26.8 ← 0.115 / 9.0 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take I love this spot for UMass Lowell because the profile gap is massive where it matters most. The numbers don't lie – Lowell shoots far more efficiently (big edge in effective field goal rate) and pounds the offensive glass (clear advantage in offensive boards per game), while Fisher is stuck in the mud both from two and from three. On top of that, Lowell lives at the stripe with a huge free-throw rate and volume edge, whereas Fisher barely gets to the line at all. Here's how I see this playing out: Lowell's size and aggressiveness create second-chance points and foul trouble early, and over 40 minutes that shooting and free-throw edge widens the margin. Fisher's one edge is taking care of the ball (fewer turnovers), but when you're this outgunned in shooting, rebounding, and free throws, clean possessions just lead to more empty trips. Give me UMass Lowell to cover the spread at -110 and pull away comfortably. Lock this in: UMass Lowell River Hawks spread -110.

TALE OF THE TAPE UNC Asheville Bulldogs Miami (OH) RedHawks Record - - Off Rating - - Def Rating - - Net Rating - - Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Let me tell you why I'm confident here. Both teams are sliding (0-5 last five for each side), but Miami's underlying profile is much cleaner. The RedHawks shoot it better at every level (edge in effective field goal percentage, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage) and they value the ball more (advantage in turnovers per game). In a matchup where tempo is similar (comparable pace profiles), those efficiency edges matter possession after possession. Here's how I see this playing out. Miami's guards consistently generate quality looks (backed by their shooting efficiency edge), and with the RedHawks also creating slightly more second chances (edge in offensive rebounds per game), Asheville is forced to chase the game. The Bulldogs can score, but extra empty trips from turnovers (disadvantage in turnovers per game) make it hard to keep this within one or two possessions late. Over forty minutes, cleaner offense and better ball security usually separate these kinds of teams (combined edge in shooting efficiency and turnovers). The spread asks Miami to win by two or three possessions, and the numbers support that gap (offensive and possession edges leaning toward the RedHawks). The only way this misses is if Asheville gets scorching hot from deep at home beyond their usual level (variance in three-point shooting). Lock it in: Miami (OH) -5.5.

TALE OF THE TAPE Purdue Boilermakers Minnesota Golden Gophers Recent Form (L5) 4-1 ← 2-3 Shooting (eFG%) 57.7% ← 52.5% 3PT Shooting 40.2% ← 31.7% Turnovers/G 10.1 ← 12.1 Off Reb/G 13.6 ← 12.0 FT Rate 0.274 → 0.537 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take I love this spot for Purdue at home against Minnesota because the extra-possession and shooting edges line up for a runaway. Purdue has been rolling over opponents lately (4-1 in their last five with home wins like 109-62 vs Panthers and 97-79 vs Zips), powered by elite shooting efficiency (much higher effective field goal percentage and 40.2% from three) and a clean offensive profile (just 10.1 turnovers per game). When you pair that with aggressive work on the glass (13.6 offensive boards per game), they simply generate too many quality looks. Minnesota’s path to hanging in this is living at the line (massive free-throw rate with 28.0 attempts per game), but they give a lot of it back with poor perimeter shooting (31.7% from deep) and sloppier ball-handling (12.1 turnovers per game). Against a Purdue team that already has multiple comfortable double-digit wins in this recent stretch, that kind of inefficiency usually snowballs on the road. I see Purdue’s guards stretching the floor, the bigs cleaning up the glass, and Minnesota chasing from the stripe but not scoring fast enough to keep this inside the number. The numbers don’t lie: Purdue owns clear edges in recent form, shooting, turnovers, and offensive rebounding, and that’s exactly the profile you want laying a big number at home. Lock this in: Purdue Boilermakers -20.5 -102.

TALE OF THE TAPE Nebraska Cornhuskers Wisconsin Badgers Record 5-0 ← 4-1 Off Rating --- --- Def Rating --- --- Net Rating 0.0 0.0 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take The public is going to load up on Nebraska, but this matchup is closer to a coin flip than a comfy home favorite. Nebraska has a small but real edge in shooting efficiency and has been rolling at home, stacking five straight wins with several double-digit margins, including that dominant performance against the Bluejays. The gym is going to be rocking, and the Huskers will get their early run. But Wisconsin quietly controls the "grown-man" areas that travel in conference play: they’re creating more second chances on the offensive glass and living at the free throw line with better conversion, while turnovers between these two are basically a wash. Both teams’ recent scoring explosions and the even overall efficiency profile point to a tight game decided late by extra possessions and free points, not just hot shooting. In that kind of grind, I want the team that wins the glass and the stripe at plus money. Lock this in: Wisconsin Badgers ML +120.

TALE OF THE TAPE Houston Cougars Jackson State Tigers Record - - Off Rating - - Def Rating - - Net Rating 0.0 0.0 Shooting (eFG%) 50.9% ← 42.6% Turnovers/G 9.8 ← 14.9 Off Reb/G 14.2 ← 8.9 FT Rate 0.215 → 0.253 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take The public is going to load up on Houston here, but this is exactly the spot where value lives for the underdog. Houston should control the game with much cleaner shooting (50.9% effective field goal vs 42.6%), far fewer giveaways (9.8 vs 14.9 turnovers per game), and a big edge on the offensive glass (14.2 vs 8.9 offensive rebounds), so the Cougars will build a big lead. But that dominance is already baked into an enormous number, and Jackson State has enough ways to keep the final margin respectable. The Tigers actually get to the line more often (0.253 free-throw rate and 14.9 attempts vs 0.215 and 13.8), and both sides are winless in their last five (0-5 each), so Houston is not exactly in cruise-control rhythm. I see a comfortable Houston win that stalls in the 25–35 point range as the bench empties and Jackson State keeps chipping away at the stripe. Lock it in: Jackson State Tigers +40.5 -108; the only real danger is Houston suddenly shooting way above their usual 33.2% from three and turning it into a true 50-point avalanche.

TALE OF THE TAPE Hofstra Pride Old Westbury Panthers Record 0-5 0-5 Off Rating N/A N/A Def Rating N/A N/A Net Rating N/A N/A Key Injuries None None Gary's Take I love this spot for Hofstra because even though both teams are winless in their last five (0-5 each), only the Pride have shown a real offensive identity so far (53.3% effective field goal with 46.4% from the field and 34.5% from three). That kind of shooting efficiency gives them a built‑in edge whenever the game turns into a shot‑making contest (53.3% eFG is strong for this level). There’s a possession quality gap here that nobody’s talking about: Hofstra protects the ball respectably (11.9 turnovers per game) and still finds ways to extend possessions on the glass (10.7 offensive rebounds per game), which is exactly how home favorites put together those decisive runs (extra chances plus fewer empty trips). Old Westbury, meanwhile, has not been able to convert recent outings into wins (0-5 over its last five), and facing a cleaner, more efficient offense on the road is a tough recipe to flip that script (Hofstra holds the clear efficiency edge). Here’s how I see this playing out: over forty minutes, Hofstra’s shooting and extra possessions slowly wear Old Westbury down, with the Pride stringing together multiple mini‑runs fueled by made threes and put‑backs (53.3% effective field goal, 11.9 turnovers, 10.7 offensive rebounds per game). Given that both sides are desperate to stop these 0-5 skids but only Hofstra has shown a reliable offensive profile, I want my money on the home team to finally get right in this matchup (Hofstra’s shooting and possession numbers clearly favor that outcome). Only way this misses is if Hofstra has a rare off night well below its usual efficiency (well under that 53.3% effective field goal mark) while Old Westbury suddenly plays far above what we’ve seen during this 0-5 stretch. Lock it in: Hofstra Pride spread -110.

TALE OF THE TAPE NJIT New Haven Record 0-5 → 3-2 Eff. FG% 45.6% → 51.7% Turnovers/G 15.3 ← 12.4 Off. Rebounds/G 9.1 → 9.9 FT Rate / FT% 0.325 / 69.8% ← 0.275 / 66.0% Net Rating +0.0 +0.0 Key Injuries None None Gary's Take Let me tell you why I'm confident here: New Haven has simply been playing better basketball than NJIT lately (3-2 vs 0-5 over their last five). The Chargers are much more efficient offensively, shooting far better from the floor (51.7% effective field goal vs 45.6%) while NJIT struggles to even reach 40% overall (37.7% from the field). On top of that, New Haven takes care of the ball at a higher level, giving it away far less often (12.4 turnovers per game vs 15.3 for NJIT). Here's how I see this playing out: New Haven's frontcourt and wings generate cleaner looks and extra possessions on the glass (9.9 offensive rebounds per game vs 9.1), forcing the Highlanders to chase the game. NJIT will try to hang around by living at the foul line (18.2 free-throw attempts per game vs 15.6 for New Haven) and using their small edge in percentage (69.8% vs 66.0%), but possession after possession the Chargers' superior shot quality should widen the gap. The recent results tell the story: NJIT has been getting run off the floor, with losses of 72-89, 55-73, 47-104, 67-94, and 70-86 in their last five, while New Haven has shown they can bury comparable opponents when their offense clicks (wins of 92-69, 78-47, and 122-51) and still compete on the road (63-67 at Eagles). As long as New Haven brings even an average shooting night and maintains their turnover edge, they should clear this short number. Only way this misses is if NJIT's whistle at home turns that 18.2 free-throw attempts into something much higher while New Haven goes ice cold. Lock it in: New Haven Chargers -2.5 -114.