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Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

I’m laying the run and a half with the Yankees because Cam Schlittler misses bats and limits damage, with 75 strikeouts in 66 innings and a .230 average against. That profile punishes a Baltimore lineup that chases and whiffs, as Colton Cowser alone has 124 strikeouts in 320 at-bats. On the other side, Tomoyuki Sugano pitches to contact with 103 strikeouts in 152.2 innings, and a .276 average against feeds Aaron Judge’s 52-homer thunder. Sure, some Yankees bats run cold, but Schlittler’s 1.30 WHIP and Baltimore’s light punch with Adley Rutschman at nine homers make a late Orioles surge unlikely—have the guts to ride the better arm and the bigger stick.