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St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs

I’m backing the Cubs on the moneyline because over the long haul they’ve been the sturdier club at 89-70, and Mikolas’ contact-heavy profile plays right into their hands. He’s carrying a 4.76 ERA and a .274 average allowed, so Chicago should see traffic and let Happ keep innings alive by taking his walks. With Swanson’s 24 homers providing the lift, this is the kind of matchup where the Cubs grind him down and cash the traffic. Yes, they’ll swing and miss at times, but Mikolas has only 96 strikeouts in 151.1 innings, so their aggression won’t be punished today—have the guts to ride with me.