I’m laying the run and a half with Boston because Garrett Crochet owns a 2.38 ERA with 207 strikeouts, and that swing-and-miss profile punishes this Baltimore lineup. Colton Cowser has 85 strikeouts and Coby Mayo has 57, which plays right into Crochet’s habit of getting ahead and staying there. On the flip side, Cade Povich brings a 5.13 ERA and a .270 opponent average, so Boston has the contact to build a cushion. If there’s a worry it’s Boston’s bats going flat for a stretch, but Povich’s 1.43 WHIP and Crochet’s .218 average against tell me traffic tilts Boston and the strikeouts finish the job—have the guts to ride the better arm.
I’m laying the run and a half with Boston because Garrett Crochet owns a 2.38 ERA with 207 strikeouts, and that swing-and-miss profile punishes this Baltimore lineup. Colton Cowser has 85 strikeouts and Coby Mayo has 57, which plays right into Crochet’s habit of getting ahead and staying there. On the flip side, Cade Povich brings a 5.13 ERA and a .270 opponent average, so Boston has the contact to build a cushion. If there’s a worry it’s Boston’s bats going flat for a stretch, but Povich’s 1.43 WHIP and Crochet’s .218 average against tell me traffic tilts Boston and the strikeouts finish the job—have the guts to ride the better arm.
Red Sox -1.5