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Washington Nationals @ New York Yankees

I’m laying the run and a half with New York because Max Fried’s 3.14 ERA paired with a 1.12 WHIP squeezes chances for a light Washington order. Outside CJ Abrams’ 17 homers, this lineup leans slap-and-go, and Fried’s .227 opponent average means rallies will be scarce without extra-base damage. Aaron Judge is batting .321 and his 40 homers turn base runners into crooked numbers, which is a bad fit for how Cade Cavalli has to live on the edges. I respect that Cavalli shows a 2.82 ERA, but his 1.34 WHIP in limited work signals the kind of traffic this patient, power-heavy group punishes, so I’m not worried about him flipping the script—ride with me if you’ve got the stomach for it.