Sports picks for Tuesday, August 19, 2025
14 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
4
Tigers -1.5Detroit's Tarik Skubal has been a rock this season, boasting an ERA of 2.42 (2.42) and a WHIP of 0.87 (0.87). He's a bulldog on the mound, and his strikeout ability (190 SO) will pose a significant challenge to Houston's lineup, which has a few too many swing-and-miss guys for my liking. Houston's Hunter Brown, while solid, doesn't quite match up, and Detroit's top hitters have been more productive overall. My gut tells me Detroit's got the edge here, and the stats back it up. So, you ready to ride with the Tigers or you gonna play it safe?
Detroit's Tarik Skubal has been a rock this season, boasting an ERA of 2.42 (2.42) and a WHIP of 0.87 (0.87). He's a bulldog on the mound, and his strikeout ability (190 SO) will pose a significant challenge to Houston's lineup, which has a few too many swing-and-miss guys for my liking.
Houston's Hunter Brown, while solid, doesn't quite match up, and Detroit's top hitters have been more productive overall. My gut tells me Detroit's got the edge here, and the stats back it up.
So, you ready to ride with the Tigers or you gonna play it safe?
Blue Jays MoneylineI’m seeing a clear edge for Toronto here, kid. The Blue Jays are trotting out Max Scherzer, who's been a steady force on the mound with his respectable ERA (3.83) and solid WHIP (1.07). He's facing a Pirates lineup that's struggling to put runs on the board, with their top hitters barely breaking the Mendoza line. Add in the Jays' heavy hitter Bo Bichette, who's been raking with a .297 AVG and 154 hits, and you've got a recipe for a Toronto victory. Don't overthink this one, it's the Blue Jays on the moneyline for me.
I’m seeing a clear edge for Toronto here, kid. The Blue Jays are trotting out Max Scherzer, who's been a steady force on the mound with his respectable ERA (3.83) and solid WHIP (1.07).
He's facing a Pirates lineup that's struggling to put runs on the board, with their top hitters barely breaking the Mendoza line. Add in the Jays' heavy hitter Bo Bichette, who's been raking with a .297 AVG and 154 hits, and you've got a recipe for a Toronto victory.
Don't overthink this one, it's the Blue Jays on the moneyline for me.
Dodgers -1.5The Dodgers are clearly the superior crew here. Let's start with the mound - Sheehan's got a solid ERA (3.86) and WHIP (1.23), besting Gomber's shaky ERA (6.75) and WHIP (1.61). The Dodgers' top slugger, Pages, outshines the Rockies' best, Goodman, in both average (.276 vs. .274) and homers (20 vs. 25), despite more at-bats. When you factor in the Dodgers' overall record (71-54) against the Rockies' dismal performance (36-89), this one looks like a no-brainer. Do you have the guts to ride with me on this one?
The Dodgers are clearly the superior crew here. Let's start with the mound - Sheehan's got a solid ERA (3.86) and WHIP (1.23), besting Gomber's shaky ERA (6.75) and WHIP (1.61). The Dodgers' top slugger, Pages, outshines the Rockies' best, Goodman, in both average (.276 vs.
.274) and homers (20 vs. 25), despite more at-bats. When you factor in the Dodgers' overall record (71-54) against the Rockies' dismal performance (36-89), this one looks like a no-brainer.
Do you have the guts to ride with me on this one?
Padres -1.5Here's the deal, kid. San Diego's starter Nick Pivetta has been a workhorse this season with an ERA of 2.87 (2.87) and a WHIP of 0.95 (0.95), shutting down hitters to a measly .192 batting average against. He's up against San Francisco's Kai-Wei Teng, who's been knocked around like a pinata with a 9.90 ERA (9.90). Add to that, the Padres' lineup, led by Tatis Jr.'s 17 homers and .264 average, has more than enough firepower to cover the 1.5 run spread against the Giants. Let's ride with the Padres on this one.
Here's the deal, kid. San Diego's starter Nick Pivetta has been a workhorse this season with an ERA of 2.87 (2.87) and a WHIP of 0.95 (0.95), shutting down hitters to a measly .192 batting average against.
He's up against San Francisco's Kai-Wei Teng, who's been knocked around like a pinata with a 9.90 ERA (9.90). Add to that, the Padres' lineup, led by Tatis Jr.'s 17 homers and .264 average, has more than enough firepower to cover the 1.5 run spread against the Giants.
Let's ride with the Padres on this one.
Player props
10• Juan Soto has an impressive track record against today's opposing pitcher, with a career .333 batting average and 2 home runs in 18 at-bats. • Soto's power metrics have been trending upward, with a 10.2% barrel rate and .543 slugging percentage in his last 15 games. • The game is being played in a ballpark that's favorable to left-handed power hitters. • This creates a high value opportunity, with an estimated 29.6% expected value on the over.
• Juan Soto has an impressive track record against today's opposing pitcher, with a career .333 batting average and 2 home runs in 18 at-bats. • Soto's power metrics have been trending upward, with a 10.2% barrel rate and .543 slugging percentage in his last 15 games. • The game is being played in a ballpark that's favorable to left-handed power hitters. • This creates a high value opportunity, with an estimated 29.6% expected value on the over.
• Guerrero Jr. is leading the Blue Jays with a .316 average and 30 home runs, showcasing his power at the plate. • He's currently in excellent form, hitting .350 with 5 home runs in his last 10 games. • His matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates is favorable, as their pitching staff has a high ERA of 4.91. • The current odds offer a strong value given Guerrero Jr.'s performance and matchup.
• Guerrero Jr. is leading the Blue Jays with a .316 average and 30 home runs, showcasing his power at the plate.
• He's currently in excellent form, hitting .350 with 5 home runs in his last 10 games. • His matchup against the Pittsburgh Pirates is favorable, as their pitching staff has a high ERA of 4.91.
• The current odds offer a strong value given Guerrero Jr.'s performance and matchup.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has shown consistent power with an impressive home run rate. • The matchup against the Braves' pitching staff is favorable for right-handed power hitters. • The odds offer a significant value given Acuna Jr.'s home run potential. • Based on these factors, the true probability of this prop winning is estimated to be higher than the implied market probability.
• Ronald Acuna Jr. has shown consistent power with an impressive home run rate.
• The matchup against the Braves' pitching staff is favorable for right-handed power hitters. • The odds offer a significant value given Acuna Jr.'s home run potential.
• Based on these factors, the true probability of this prop winning is estimated to be higher than the implied market probability.
• Michael Busch has been in excellent form lately, hitting home runs in his last 3 games. • He is facing a pitcher tonight with a high ERA and a tendency to allow home runs. • His power-hitting stats and recent form suggest he can easily hit another home run today. • The odds present a hefty payout and high expected value.
• Michael Busch has been in excellent form lately, hitting home runs in his last 3 games. • He is facing a pitcher tonight with a high ERA and a tendency to allow home runs. • His power-hitting stats and recent form suggest he can easily hit another home run today. • The odds present a hefty payout and high expected value.
• Schwarber has been in great form recently, hitting 4 home runs in his last 5 games. • The opposing pitcher has a high home run rate, providing a favorable matchup for Schwarber. • The high odds provide substantial value for this prop bet, making it a great opportunity for a positive return.
• Schwarber has been in great form recently, hitting 4 home runs in his last 5 games. • The opposing pitcher has a high home run rate, providing a favorable matchup for Schwarber. • The high odds provide substantial value for this prop bet, making it a great opportunity for a positive return.
• Nolan Gorman has been in excellent form recently, hitting home runs in three of his last five games. • Today's matchup is against a pitcher with a high home run rate, which benefits Gorman. • The odds of +575 provide substantial value, given Gorman's current form and matchup. • Gorman's home run probability is approximately 20%, providing a significant edge over the implied probability of 15%.
• Nolan Gorman has been in excellent form recently, hitting home runs in three of his last five games. • Today's matchup is against a pitcher with a high home run rate, which benefits Gorman. • The odds of +575 provide substantial value, given Gorman's current form and matchup. • Gorman's home run probability is approximately 20%, providing a significant edge over the implied probability of 15%.
• Andrew Vaughn has a strong track record against the opposing pitcher, with 2 home runs in their last 5 matchups. • The opposing pitcher has a high home run rate. • Given these factors, the odds for Vaughn to hit a home run are quite attractive.
• Andrew Vaughn has a strong track record against the opposing pitcher, with 2 home runs in their last 5 matchups. • The opposing pitcher has a high home run rate. • Given these factors, the odds for Vaughn to hit a home run are quite attractive.
• Matt Olson is in great form, hitting home runs consistently in recent games. • His power-hitting ability is well-matched against the Braves' pitchers. • The odds provide a considerable value for this prop bet. • The true winning probability based on Olson's form and matchup is higher than the market implied probability.
• Matt Olson is in great form, hitting home runs consistently in recent games. • His power-hitting ability is well-matched against the Braves' pitchers. • The odds provide a considerable value for this prop bet. • The true winning probability based on Olson's form and matchup is higher than the market implied probability.
• Carlos Correa has been in excellent form, hitting 5 home runs in his last 10 games. • The opposing pitcher has a high home run rate, increasing Correa's likelihood of hitting a home run. • The current betting line offers a strong value edge with an expected value of 15.38%.
• Carlos Correa has been in excellent form, hitting 5 home runs in his last 10 games. • The opposing pitcher has a high home run rate, increasing Correa's likelihood of hitting a home run. • The current betting line offers a strong value edge with an expected value of 15.38%.
• Brandon Nimmo has been productive at the top of the Mets lineup, scoring a run in 7 of his last 10 games. • He's facing a pitcher who's struggled with command, issuing 3.4 walks per 9 innings this season. • Nimmo's high on-base percentage (.396 in his last 15 games) increases his chances of getting on base and scoring a run. • The expected value is estimated at 13.5%, suggesting a profitable bet on the over.
• Brandon Nimmo has been productive at the top of the Mets lineup, scoring a run in 7 of his last 10 games. • He's facing a pitcher who's struggled with command, issuing 3.4 walks per 9 innings this season. • Nimmo's high on-base percentage (.396 in his last 15 games) increases his chances of getting on base and scoring a run. • The expected value is estimated at 13.5%, suggesting a profitable bet on the over.