Sports picks for Friday, May 9, 2025
6 stored itemsGary’s saved picks and research for this day. Results are presented separately because older records do not all carry a durable source-pick ID.
Game picks
4
Braves MoneylineBraves are still a class above the Pirates on both sides of the ball—top-5 in team OPS, pitching staff that limits hard contact, and they travel well. Pirates' bats have cooled lately and their bullpen has sprung leaks. No fishy line moves, just a straight-up edge for Atlanta, even in Pittsburgh. Braves handle business.
Braves are still a class above the Pirates on both sides of the ball—top-5 in team OPS, pitching staff that limits hard contact, and they travel well. Pirates' bats have cooled lately and their bullpen has sprung leaks. No fishy line moves, just a straight-up edge for Atlanta, even in Pittsburgh. Braves handle business.
Mets MoneylineThe Mets have a clear statistical edge at home, sporting a better bullpen ERA and more consistent lineup production over the last 10 games. No significant line movement signals no trap, and the Mets’ recent momentum at Citi Field can't be ignored. The price isn’t cheap, but the numbers back my gut: Mets handle business in Queens.
The Mets have a clear statistical edge at home, sporting a better bullpen ERA and more consistent lineup production over the last 10 games. No significant line movement signals no trap, and the Mets’ recent momentum at Citi Field can't be ignored. The price isn’t cheap, but the numbers back my gut: Mets handle business in Queens.
Orioles MoneylineOrioles' bats are top-5 in runs and slugging, while the Angels’ pitching is bottom-third and bullpen is leaking oil. No major injuries or sharp line movement, just a clear talent edge for Baltimore. Not a favorite I’m scared to back—this is the right side, plain and simple.
Orioles' bats are top-5 in runs and slugging, while the Angels’ pitching is bottom-third and bullpen is leaking oil. No major injuries or sharp line movement, just a clear talent edge for Baltimore. Not a favorite I’m scared to back—this is the right side, plain and simple.
Yankees MoneylineYankees have a clear statistical edge in run differential, bullpen depth, and road performance. Oakland's lineup lacks pop, and the line is stable—no sharp trap. My system and my gut both say the Yanks get it done, even if it's not flashy.
Yankees have a clear statistical edge in run differential, bullpen depth, and road performance. Oakland's lineup lacks pop, and the line is stable—no sharp trap. My system and my gut both say the Yanks get it done, even if it's not flashy.
Player props
35Haliburton has been dishing out assists consistently, facing a favorable matchup. The true probability of him surpassing 10.5 assists is strong, resulting in a high EV pick.
Haliburton has been dishing out assists consistently, facing a favorable matchup. The true probability of him surpassing 10.5 assists is strong, resulting in a high EV pick.
Strus has shown an uptick in playmaking, and facing weaker defensive opposition increases his chances of hitting over 2.5 assists. The EV for this prop is excellent given the circumstances.
Strus has shown an uptick in playmaking, and facing weaker defensive opposition increases his chances of hitting over 2.5 assists. The EV for this prop is excellent given the circumstances.
Jalen Williams has been a scoring machine lately, facing a Nuggets defense that struggles to contain high-scoring guards. With his current form and matchup advantages, the OVER on his points prop presents a solid value play with a calculated EV of 0.126.
Jalen Williams has been a scoring machine lately, facing a Nuggets defense that struggles to contain high-scoring guards. With his current form and matchup advantages, the OVER on his points prop presents a solid value play with a calculated EV of 0.126.
Jamal Murray is a proven scorer and with a favorable matchup against the Thunder's defense, he is poised to exceed the 20.5 points line. The -125 odds offer a decent value with an EV of 0.18, making this a strong pick with a confidence level of 0.8.
Jamal Murray is a proven scorer and with a favorable matchup against the Thunder's defense, he is poised to exceed the 20.5 points line. The -125 odds offer a decent value with an EV of 0.18, making this a strong pick with a confidence level of 0.8.
Aaron Gordon has been stepping up in the scoring department recently and facing a weaker Thunder defense, he should have ample opportunities to surpass the 16.5 points line. At -121 odds, this pick offers a solid value play with an EV of 0.157 and a confidence rating of 0.76.
Aaron Gordon has been stepping up in the scoring department recently and facing a weaker Thunder defense, he should have ample opportunities to surpass the 16.5 points line. At -121 odds, this pick offers a solid value play with an EV of 0.157 and a confidence rating of 0.76.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been showing power with a solid hitting streak. The matchup favors his ability to go yard. The positive EV indicates a strong value bet here.
Ronald Acuña Jr. has been showing power with a solid hitting streak. The matchup favors his ability to go yard. The positive EV indicates a strong value bet here.
Max Fried has been consistent with strikeouts and faces a lineup prone to swinging and missing. With a true probability favoring the over, this pick offers a moderate edge with positive EV.
Max Fried has been consistent with strikeouts and faces a lineup prone to swinging and missing. With a true probability favoring the over, this pick offers a moderate edge with positive EV.
Joey Gallo has shown power hitting ability and faces a favorable matchup. With a true probability of 0.55, this bet offers great value at +140 odds.
Joey Gallo has shown power hitting ability and faces a favorable matchup. With a true probability of 0.55, this bet offers great value at +140 odds.
Casey Mize has been pitching well and facing a strikeout-prone lineup. With a true probability of 0.65, the Over 5.5 strikeouts bet at -115 odds provides solid value.
Casey Mize has been pitching well and facing a strikeout-prone lineup. With a true probability of 0.65, the Over 5.5 strikeouts bet at -115 odds provides solid value.
Soto has been showing great power recently, facing a pitcher he matches up well against. The odds undervalue his potential for a home run tonight. Let's go yard with Soto!
Soto has been showing great power recently, facing a pitcher he matches up well against. The odds undervalue his potential for a home run tonight. Let's go yard with Soto!
Scherzer is in top form with his strikeouts lately, and the Cardinals have struggled against high-strikeout pitchers. The line underestimates his ability to rack up Ks tonight. Let's ride with Mad Max!
Scherzer is in top form with his strikeouts lately, and the Cardinals have struggled against high-strikeout pitchers. The line underestimates his ability to rack up Ks tonight. Let's ride with Mad Max!
Lowe has shown power hitting potential and faces a favorable matchup. With strong EV and a confident swing, bet on him to go yard tonight.
Lowe has shown power hitting potential and faces a favorable matchup. With strong EV and a confident swing, bet on him to go yard tonight.
Burnes has been dominating on the mound with high strikeout numbers. Against a lineup prone to strikeouts, the over on his strikeout line presents a solid statistical edge.
Burnes has been dominating on the mound with high strikeout numbers. Against a lineup prone to strikeouts, the over on his strikeout line presents a solid statistical edge.
Alonso has been heating up at the plate and faces a pitcher he matches up well against. The odds provide great value for him to hit a home run tonight.
Alonso has been heating up at the plate and faces a pitcher he matches up well against. The odds provide great value for him to hit a home run tonight.
deGrom is a strikeout machine and faces a Cubs lineup that strikes out frequently. With a high true probability, taking the over on his strikeouts is a solid play.
deGrom is a strikeout machine and faces a Cubs lineup that strikes out frequently. With a high true probability, taking the over on his strikeouts is a solid play.
Lindor has been consistent at the plate lately, facing a favorable matchup that should provide him opportunities to surpass 2.5 hits. With a solid true probability of 0.65, there's value in betting on Lindor to deliver hits tonight.
Lindor has been consistent at the plate lately, facing a favorable matchup that should provide him opportunities to surpass 2.5 hits. With a solid true probability of 0.65, there's value in betting on Lindor to deliver hits tonight.
Nola is a strikeout artist facing a team that has shown vulnerability to strikeouts. With a true probability of 0.60, the Over on his 7.5 strikeouts line presents a solid value play. Expect Nola to rack up the Ks in this matchup.
Nola is a strikeout artist facing a team that has shown vulnerability to strikeouts. With a true probability of 0.60, the Over on his 7.5 strikeouts line presents a solid value play. Expect Nola to rack up the Ks in this matchup.
Salvador Perez has been crushing the ball lately and faces a pitcher he has had success against. The odds undervalue his power, making this a strong pick with great value.
Salvador Perez has been crushing the ball lately and faces a pitcher he has had success against. The odds undervalue his power, making this a strong pick with great value.
Eovaldi has been a strikeout machine this season, and the Royals lineup has shown vulnerability to high fastball pitchers. The line is set lower than expected, providing a moderate edge for the over.
Eovaldi has been a strikeout machine this season, and the Royals lineup has shown vulnerability to high fastball pitchers. The line is set lower than expected, providing a moderate edge for the over.
Abreu has been hitting well, facing a favorable pitching matchup. Expected value indicates a strong pick with a high probability of exceeding 2.5 total bases.
Abreu has been hitting well, facing a favorable pitching matchup. Expected value indicates a strong pick with a high probability of exceeding 2.5 total bases.
Lynn has been dominant on the mound with high strikeout numbers. Facing a lineup he can exploit, the over on 7.5 strikeouts presents a strong pick with excellent value.
Lynn has been dominant on the mound with high strikeout numbers. Facing a lineup he can exploit, the over on 7.5 strikeouts presents a strong pick with excellent value.
Votto has been seeing the ball well lately, facing a pitcher he historically hits well. The odds are undervaluing his chances of going yard tonight, making this a solid value bet with a 0.1 EV.
Votto has been seeing the ball well lately, facing a pitcher he historically hits well. The odds are undervaluing his chances of going yard tonight, making this a solid value bet with a 0.1 EV.
Castillo has been racking up strikeouts recently, and the Astros lineup has shown vulnerability to high-strikeout pitchers. With a 0.086 EV, betting on Castillo to exceed 7.5 strikeouts is a smart play tonight.
Castillo has been racking up strikeouts recently, and the Astros lineup has shown vulnerability to high-strikeout pitchers. With a 0.086 EV, betting on Castillo to exceed 7.5 strikeouts is a smart play tonight.
Big Daddy Cruz has been crushing the ball lately with a 0.375 home run per game rate. Facing a favorable pitching matchup, the odds favor Cruz going yard. The EV calculation supports this pick with a strong statistical edge.
Big Daddy Cruz has been crushing the ball lately with a 0.375 home run per game rate. Facing a favorable pitching matchup, the odds favor Cruz going yard. The EV calculation supports this pick with a strong statistical edge.
Kepler has been raking the bases recently, averaging 2.75 total bases per game. Against a vulnerable pitching staff, he's likely to continue his extra-base hit trend. The positive EV and Kepler's consistency make this a moderate edge pick.
Kepler has been raking the bases recently, averaging 2.75 total bases per game. Against a vulnerable pitching staff, he's likely to continue his extra-base hit trend. The positive EV and Kepler's consistency make this a moderate edge pick.
Tatis Jr. has been on a power surge recently, facing a favorable pitching matchup. With an EV of 0.15, there's value in betting on him to hit a home run.
Tatis Jr. has been on a power surge recently, facing a favorable pitching matchup. With an EV of 0.15, there's value in betting on him to hit a home run.
Marquez has shown strong strikeout ability this season, facing a Padres lineup that strikes out frequently. With an EV of 0.126, the over on his strikeouts is a strong pick.
Marquez has shown strong strikeout ability this season, facing a Padres lineup that strikes out frequently. With an EV of 0.126, the over on his strikeouts is a strong pick.
Ohtani has been crushing it at the plate, facing a favorable matchup. His high true probability makes this a strong pick with excellent value.
Ohtani has been crushing it at the plate, facing a favorable matchup. His high true probability makes this a strong pick with excellent value.
Mookie Betts has been hitting well with a high on-base percentage, likely to get multiple hits. EV indicates strong value and a good statistical edge.
Mookie Betts has been hitting well with a high on-base percentage, likely to get multiple hits. EV indicates strong value and a good statistical edge.
Buehler is a dominant strikeout pitcher facing a lineup with high K rates, making the Over 7.5 strikeouts a solid play with moderate confidence.
Buehler is a dominant strikeout pitcher facing a lineup with high K rates, making the Over 7.5 strikeouts a solid play with moderate confidence.
With Guerrero Jr.'s power and recent form, there's a good chance he goes yard. The positive EV indicates value on this prop bet.
With Guerrero Jr.'s power and recent form, there's a good chance he goes yard. The positive EV indicates value on this prop bet.
Semien has been hitting well and facing a favorable matchup. The calculated EV suggests a moderate edge on this prop.
Semien has been hitting well and facing a favorable matchup. The calculated EV suggests a moderate edge on this prop.
Ray has been racking up strikeouts consistently. Against a lineup with swing-and-miss tendencies, the EV favors taking the OVER on his strikeout line.
Ray has been racking up strikeouts consistently. Against a lineup with swing-and-miss tendencies, the EV favors taking the OVER on his strikeout line.
Aaron Judge has been crushing the ball lately with a high probability of hitting a home run. His matchup advantage against the Athletics' pitching staff increases his chances. The EV supports this pick.
Aaron Judge has been crushing the ball lately with a high probability of hitting a home run. His matchup advantage against the Athletics' pitching staff increases his chances. The EV supports this pick.
Gerrit Cole is a strikeout machine facing a lineup that struggles against high-velocity pitching. His recent performance and strikeout trends indicate he will surpass 8.5 strikeouts. The positive EV and strong confidence make this a great pick.
Gerrit Cole is a strikeout machine facing a lineup that struggles against high-velocity pitching. His recent performance and strikeout trends indicate he will surpass 8.5 strikeouts. The positive EV and strong confidence make this a great pick.
Graded results
2Games
- W
New York Mets ML -155
MLB · Chicago Cubs 2 - New York Mets 7
- W
New York Yankees ML -148
MLB · New York Yankees @ Oakland Athletics