Spain at France

I'm backing France in regulation because my first read is about how this matchup is likely to breathe, not the number beside either badge. Spain will want Rodri to set the rhythm, hold the ball and create width through Lamine Yamal. France does not need to win that possession battle. Its transition threat is the cleanest weapon on the field, and Michael Olise's tournament-leading 5 assists give Kylian Mbappé the service to attack the space Spain's more vertical version can leave.

The form supports that tactical edge. France is 6W-0D-0L with 16 goals, while Mbappé has 8 and the defense has posted 5 clean sheets. More important for a semifinal, Les Bleus have not conceded in the knockout rounds, winning 3-0, 1-0 and 2-0. Spain's case is powerful—5W-1D-0L, only 1 goal allowed and 5 clean sheets—but its last 2 knockout wins required late Mikel Merino goals. That tells me control has not always become separation against top resistance. France has been more ruthless at both ends.

I have checked the availability risk. Mbappé says he is completely fine, and Dayot Upamecano and William Saliba are expected to start; Aurélien Tchouaméni remains the meaningful doubt. Spain has uncertainty around Nico Williams, with Yeremy Pino cleared and Victor Munoz likely out. The retractable roof should reduce the effect of the 90°F heat and humidity, so I am not downgrading France's attacking pace for the conditions. At DraftKings' +140, I am taking France ML: elite knockout defending, the tournament's most productive attack and a transition profile built to punish Spain's ambition.

I'm taking the under because the strongest common trait here is defensive control. Spain has conceded only 1 goal in the tournament, owns 5 clean sheets and carried a 609-minute Unai Simón shutout streak. France also has 5 clean sheets and has allowed nothing in the knockout rounds. Those records are not built on one goalkeeper running hot alone: the quarter-final marks list Spain at 0.99 xGA and France at 0.84 xGA, while Spain allowed only 1.5 total xG through its first 5 matches.

Tactically, Spain's 66% average possession and Rodri-led rhythm can compress the game even when they are not creating clear chances. France is comfortable letting an opponent have the ball before choosing its transition moments, but a semifinal against Spain's rest defense is not an invitation to trade attacks. The recent knockout scores reinforce that shape: France went 3-0, 1-0 and 2-0, while Spain went 3-0, 1-0 and 2-1. Most of those games stayed controlled, and the stage gives both teams reason to protect against the first mistake.

The personnel news does not move me off it. Mbappé is expected to start despite the ankle knock, but Nico Williams is a slight doubt, and France's defensive starters are expected back after missed training. Aurélien Tchouaméni's thigh issue matters, yet Manu Koné is the stated alternative. With the retractable roof mitigating the 90°F conditions, I expect tactics and semifinal pressure—not weather chaos—to dictate the tempo. DraftKings hangs 2.5 with the under at -105. My read is a narrow, low-event match, so Under 2.5 -105 is the ticket.