Croatia at Panama
BMO Field
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Draw +360
- Published odds
- +360
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 1-0
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Under 2.5 +115
- Published odds
- +115
- Result
- Won
- Final score
- 1-0
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read: Draw
We've got a high-stakes, win-or-go-home thriller brewing in Toronto as Panama and Croatia fight to keep their World Cup dreams alive at BMO Field. Both sides are backed into a corner after opening-round defeats, and with England and Ghana already sitting on four points, a loss tonight means immediate flight bookings home.
The market has heavily favored Croatia, but that has left massive value on the Draw at 360. Panama enters this match with a massive structural disadvantage, as star playmaker Adalberto "Coco" Carrasquilla is benched due to a groin injury, and captain Aníbal Godoy is also benched with muscle soreness. Deprived of their transition engine, Panama will be forced into a highly defensive posture, compacting their lines and relying on Harvey and Martínez to play a purely destructive midfield role. While Croatia will dominate the ball, averaging 59.5% possession, they have struggled with actual execution, putting only 3.75 of their 12.25 shots per match on target. Against a packed, low-block defense, Croatia’s possession is highly likely to turn into sterile domination rather than a goalfest.
The best argument against the Draw is Croatia's elite class and the presence of Luka Modrić earning his 200th cap, which should technically allow them to overwhelm a depleted Panamanian midfield. However, the sheer pressure of the tournament mathematics means Panama will defend with their lives. Given Panama’s lack of transition options and Croatia’s historic struggles to break down disciplined defensive blocks when their shot accuracy sits at just 30.6%, the physical and tactical battle points directly toward a grueling, low-scoring stalemate.
The read: Under 2.5
We've got a high-stakes, win-or-go-home thriller brewing in Toronto as Panama and Croatia fight to keep their World Cup dreams alive at BMO Field. Both sides are backed into a corner after opening-round defeats, and with England and Ghana already sitting on four points, a loss tonight means immediate flight bookings home.
For the total, Under 2.5 at 115 is an incredibly sharp play. Panama’s offense is historically anemic, averaging a meager 0.73 xG per match over their last 6 games, and their lack of central creative pieces means they are highly unlikely to find the net. Meanwhile, Croatia’s underlying defensive structure is actually very solid, boasting a disciplined 0.90 xGA. While Croatia conceded four against England, that was an elite-tier outlier. Against a Panama side focused entirely on survival, Croatia’s defense will face very little threat, while their own attacking inefficiencies will limit their ability to run up the score. At plus money, the Under provides excellent value for a match that has all the makings of a tight, low-scoring tactical grind.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
SITUATIONAL
Panama v Croatia: projected XI
PROJECTEDLikely lineups from each side's last match — confirmed sheets post ~2h before kickoff.
STREAK
Panama are winless in 4 internationals
4-game winlessRecent tournament form sits 0-0-4 over the last 4 (L-L-L-L), with a 4-match run without a win live.
TOURNAMENT
Panama vs Croatia — Group L at stake
Group LIn Group L, Panama sit 3rd on 0 points and Croatia sit 4th on 0 points — three points reshape who advances. The market has it Panama +600 / the draw +340 / Croatia -205.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored June 23, 2026 at 11:35 AM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Source names were not retained with this pick.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
2- GARY'S PICKJOSÉ FAJARDOSHOTS OVER 2.5
José Fajardo is the central figure in Panama's offensive strategy, recording 17 shots across his last 8 caps for an average of 2.13 per match. Panama enters this contest in a state of desperation after a narrow 0-1 loss to Ghana; with zero points and a negative goal differential, they cannot afford a passive approach.
Croatia's defense showed significant cracks in their tournament opener, conceding four goals to England, and their recent metrics (1.67 xGA/match) suggest they are susceptible to allowing high-quality chances. While Croatia is expected to control the tempo, Panama's efficient transition game (averaging 4.75 shots on target from 9.5 total shots) ensures that Fajardo will have opportunities to test the keeper.
Given the high-stakes 'must-win' nature of the game for Panama, Fajardo's shot volume is likely to meet or exceed his international average.
- GARY'S PICKDOMINIK LIVAKOVICSAVES OVER 3
The market is significantly undervaluing the workload for Croatian goalkeeper Dominik Livaković in this matchup. Panama averages 9.5 shots per match with an impressive 50% accuracy rate (4.75 shots on target per match).
Despite Croatia being the favorite, their defensive performance against England (4 goals conceded) highlights a vulnerability that Panama's counter-attacking style is designed to exploit. With Panama forced to chase a result, they will be aggressive in their shot selection, particularly in transition.
Livaković needs only 4 saves to clear this line (or 3 to push), yet the +135 price implies only a 43% probability of him reaching 3 saves. Given Panama puts nearly 5 balls on frame per game on average, Livaković is statistically likely to be tested frequently enough to clear this total.
Every prop from this day is on the archive page.
Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.
Get Gary on the App StoreEvery WC game this dayThe WC recordToday's WC picksEvery sport this day