Washington Capitals at Tampa Bay Lightning

The price is steep. I'm paying it because the goalie matchup tilts hard toward Tampa Bay, and the schedule and the underlying numbers point the same way. Washington is expected to start Charlie Lindgren on the second night of a road back-to-back, after Logan Thompson played Friday in Carolina. Lindgren went .879 with a 3.52 goals against average across 20 starts last season and hasn't played yet this season. Lindgren's last appearance was an 8 goals on 33 shots night against the Rangers in April. Andrei Vasilevskiy, expected for Tampa Bay, went 39-15-4 with a .912 and a 2.31 over 58 starts. One rough opener at .833 on 24 shots doesn't outweigh that body of work. Both openers tell a different story than their scores. Tampa Bay lost 1-5 in New York while splitting shots 24-25 and holding a 50.6% 5-on-5 shot-attempt share. The damage came from an .850 5-on-5 save percentage, 8.3% shooting and a scoreless power play, and none of that should repeat. Washington won 5-2 in Carolina while being outshot 33-27 with a 43.8% shot-attempt share. That win was carried by 18.2% 5-on-5 shooting, a 50.0% power play and Thompson's .939, and Thompson is expected to sit tonight. Last season's full body of work favors Tampa Bay too: a 53.0% shot-attempt share against Washington's 49.5%, 3.49 goals for per game against 3.18, and 2.79 against per game compared with 2.90. Nikita Kucherov (130 points), Jake Guentzel (88) and Brandon Hagel (74) are the finishers you want facing a goalie with Lindgren's numbers. The Lightning are home for their opener with two days since their last game. The Capitals are finishing a Raleigh to Tampa back-to-back. The schedule spot is widely known, but here it stacks on top of the goaltending edge instead of standing alone. Washington has a real path. Eight skaters on the roster put up 45 or more points last season, Tampa Bay's special teams and faceoffs were poor in the opener, and Emil Lilleberg makes a season debut on the Hedman pair. Gourde and James were already out for the opener, so Tampa Bay's lineup tonight looks like Thursday's with better health on defense. With a backup goalie in net on tired legs against a better 5-on-5 team at home, I'll lay the number.