Utah Mammoth at Columbus Blue Jackets

Utah is the better hockey team on the full body of work, and tonight's price asks only a small premium for that. Last season the Mammoth outscored Columbus per game (3.27 to 3.00), allowed fewer (2.93 to 3.06) and owned the better 5-on-5 shot-attempt share (52.9% to 51.1%). Utah also ran stronger special teams on both ends, a 20.0% power play and 78.1% penalty kill against 18.9% and 76.0%. The opener pointed the same direction: Utah outshot Chicago 32-15 and drove 60.8% of 5-on-5 attempts. Columbus's 6-3 win over Buffalo reads louder than it played. The Blue Jackets were outshot 26-23, held only 43.5% of 5-on-5 attempts and converted 21.4% of their 5-on-5 shots. That finishing rate will come down. The shot share tells me more about how this group handles a team that controls play. The Columbus blue line is the matchup piece I keep returning to. Dante Fabbro and Ivan Provorov are both out. The opener was already played without them, and Zach Werenski was asked to carry 28:46 in that game. Against a Utah forward group with Guenther, Keller, Schmaltz, Trocheck and Cooley, that thinned defensive corps faces a heavier test than Buffalo provided. The risk sits in Utah's net. Sebastian Cossa is reported to make a Mammoth debut with no NHL games last season, so there is no track record to lean on. Columbus likely counters with Jet Greaves, who posted .908 over 53 starts. I accept that uncertainty for two reasons. The goalie Cossa replaces tonight finished last season at .897, so the bar is reachable. And a team that limits shots the way Utah did Thursday shields whoever is in the crease. The back-to-back with the Rangers tomorrow explains the goalie choice. It does not affect tonight's skaters, who come in with two days since their last game, same as Columbus.