St. Louis Blues at Colorado Avalanche

Colorado’s advantage in controlling play is the foundation of this bet. Over 82 games last season, the Avalanche held 56.4% of five-on-five shot attempts compared with 48.3% for St. Louis. Colorado also averaged 33.7 shots per game against the Blues’ 25.3. I expect that stronger territorial foundation to create more opportunities for Colorado’s available scorers, including Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas. The reported goalie matchup strengthens that edge. Jordan Binnington is expected to start after Joel Hofer delivered the Blues’ opening shutout. Binnington finished last season with a .873 save percentage across 39 starts, while expected Colorado starter Mackenzie Blackwood posted .904 across 36. St. Louis’ shutout yesterday gives me little reason to upgrade tonight’s goaltending with a different starter expected. The schedule adds another advantage. Colorado has been home since its September 30 opener. St. Louis played in Dallas yesterday and flew into Denver late afterward. Binnington avoided yesterday’s workload, but the skaters face consecutive road games. Alexey Toropchenko’s new absence also changes the group that won yesterday. The price demands a substantial advantage. Blackwood allowing four goals in Colorado’s opener is the clearest concern, and I give little predictive weight to the Avalanche scoring eight in that single game. My judgment is that Colorado’s stronger possession foundation, expected goalie advantage and favorable schedule together justify the moneyline.