Seattle Kraken at Edmonton Oilers

Edmonton's stars are all dressing tonight, and that is the biggest threat to this ticket. McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard are in the lineup. The Oilers have taken 56.8% of the 5-on-5 shot attempts through two games. Their power play ran at 30.6% last season, and Seattle's penalty kill finished at 72.2%. That is why this line sits at -205. The price leans too hard on those strengths because of who plays behind them. Andersen is out until maybe December, so the net goes to Levi or Jarry, and neither has been confirmed. Levi stopped 15 of 22 shots in his only start, a .682, and played no NHL games last season. Jarry is at .739 this season and finished last season at .882 over 29 starts. As a team, the Oilers are at .727 at 5-on-5 this year after .890 last year. They have allowed 13 goals in two games while giving up only 22.5 shots a night, so Seattle does not need to win the shot battle to score here. Edmonton's penalty kill sits at 60.0% early after 77.8% last season. Seattle's power play was 20.0% in the opener after 19.5% a year ago. The depth behind McDavid and Draisaitl is thin, with Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, Savoie and Janmark all out. Those absences are already built into Edmonton's two results, a 5-6 overtime loss and a 9-7 win, both against Vancouver. Neither game shows a team keeping the puck out of its own net. Seattle has real flaws. The Kraken controlled only 43.7% of the 5-on-5 attempts in their 6-1 win at Calgary while shooting 20.0%, and that shooting will cool. They took 46.0% of the attempts last season, and they play again tomorrow. What Seattle brings is the steadier crease. Daccord, the projected starter, was .897 over 46 starts last season and stopped 24 of 25 in the opener. Grubauer was .909 last season if the Kraken turn to him. Seattle's team mark at 5-on-5 last season was .918, against Edmonton's .890. Samoskevich is back off injured reserve, while Melanson is a fresh absence. Edmonton won three of the four meetings last season, two by shutout, and that counts against this play. Still, last season the Oilers scored 3.44 goals a game and allowed 3.23, a narrow positive margin. Tonight they are thinner up front and have no proven goalie available. Laying -205 prices Edmonton as a heavy favorite with a crease that has not earned that trust. Overtime and shootout results count on this ticket, and I'll take the plus money on the club with the better goaltending.