Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

Ottawa is priced like a coin flip in Toronto. Underneath the price, the matchup leans Ottawa in the two places that decide most hockey games: who controls the puck and who is in net. Linus Ullmark was first off the ice at Ottawa's morning skate, and Sergei Bobrovsky took the home net at Toronto's optional skate. Both are likely starters and neither is confirmed. Ullmark went 28-12-8 last season with a .891 save percentage and a 2.73 goals against average across 49 starts. Ullmark finished the year with wins over Tampa Bay, Florida and the Islanders, the last a 23 save shutout. Bobrovsky posted a .877 save percentage and a 3.07 goals against average with Florida last season. In Toronto's opener, Bobrovsky allowed 3 goals on 24 shots in a 2-3 loss to Montreal. The last time Bobrovsky faced Ottawa, on April 9 with Florida, Bobrovsky gave up 4 goals on 25 shots while Ullmark allowed 1 on 23 at the other end. The territorial gap points the same way: - Toronto conceded 32.4 shots a game last season and controlled 45.5% of 5-on-5 shot attempts. - The roster was reworked with Kirill Marchenko, Darren Raddysh, Jack Roslovic and Bobrovsky, and through two games that attempt share sits at 45.9%. - Ottawa ran at 52.6% and allowed only 24.4 shots per game. - Ottawa scored 3.35 and allowed 2.99 per game. Toronto scored 3.07 and allowed 3.60. - Ottawa won three of the four meetings last season, all in regulation. Ottawa does arrive short. Ridly Greig serves the first game of a suspension, Andre Burakovsky and Artem Zub are out, and Warren Foegele plays the top line through an undisclosed injury. Jake Sanderson returns, though, and a defenseman who logged 24:50 a night with 54 points in 67 games covers much of that. Toronto's absences, Max Domi and Dakota Joshua, were already missing for both games played. The 1-1-0 start reflects the group Ottawa sees tonight. Toronto has real things going for it: home ice, 3 days since its last game, two games of rhythm against a club playing its opener, and a power play that converted 21.3% last season against an Ottawa penalty kill that sat at 75.7%. Those are the paths to a Toronto win. Over a full season, Toronto spent most nights chasing the puck, and the probable goalie behind that defense posted the weaker numbers last year. At -105, I'm paying almost nothing for the better probable goalie and the team that won the shot battle across 82 games.