Montreal Canadiens at Pittsburgh Penguins

This game comes down to the crease. Jakub Dobes and Arturs Silovs are both reported starters, and their 2025-26 seasons sit on different levels. Dobes posted a .901 save percentage across 42 starts with a 29-10-4 record. Silovs finished at .888 across 38 starts. The late-season logs widen that gap. Dobes closed March and opened April with outings of .953, .962, .971 and .973. Silovs's final stretch included .688 at Vegas, .828 against Colorado and .826 against Florida. The 19 saves on 19 shots in Philadelphia were a clean night on light volume, and one game does not overwrite 38 starts. Pittsburgh's skaters have the edge on paper, which keeps this close. Their 50.2% shot share last season beat Montreal's 48.2%. Their 24.1% power play faces a Canadiens penalty kill that ran at 78.2%. The 7-0 opener came with a 63.9% shot share. Ben Kindel and Andrei Kuzmenko add depth tonight. Bryan Rust remains out after 29 goals and 65 points last season, and that opener already came without him. Montreal's own opener was shakier than the score. The Canadiens were outshot 24-28 at Toronto and shot 15.8% at five on five, which will come down. Their 59.6% score-close shot share says they held the territory when the game was tight. Nick Suzuki, with 101 points last season, and Cole Caufield, with 51 goals, were both held off the scoresheet that night, so the top of the lineup has more to give. Montreal dresses the same lineup as Tuesday, so Oliver Kapanen's absence changes nothing from the opener. The club has been in Pittsburgh since Wednesday, with two practices and four days since its last game. At -115 I am paying a small premium for the more reliable goaltender, the factor most likely to decide a game this even.