NHL · Sat, Oct 3 · 10:00 PM

Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks

O/U 6.5 · SPREAD San Jose Sharks -1.5 · SAP Center at San Jose

GARY'S PICK

NHL@ San Jose Sharks· -105

The price treats this as a coin flip, but Los Angeles was the better team underneath last season. Over 82 games the Kings took 52.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts to San Jose's 47.0%. They allowed 2.90 goals per game to the Sharks' 3.54. They outshot opponents 28.0 to 27.2, while San Jose was outshot 25.8 to 29.6. San Jose did score more, 3.04 per game to 2.68, but much of that rested on a 10.1% 5-on-5 shooting rate. That is a thinner foundation than shot share. With the expected starter, the goaltending also leans toward LA. Anton Forsberg is listed as the likely starter. Forsberg posted a .910 save percentage across 31 starts last season and closed April with .958, .935 and .960, plus a 27-save shutout of Edmonton. Yaroslav Askarov is confirmed for San Jose. Askarov finished last season at .884 with a 3.63 goals-against average, and three of Askarov's last ten appearances came in at .800 or below. The 4-8 loss in Colorado looks like an outlier. LA took 53.5% of 5-on-5 shot attempts with the score close that night. The Kings lost because they shot 4.2% at 5-on-5 and saved only .818. One game is a tiny sample, and both numbers sit far from where this club lived last season. The risks are real. Forsberg is expected but not confirmed, and if Darcy Kuemper starts, most of the goalie gap disappears: Kuemper was .891 last season against Askarov's .884. San Jose's power play ran 21.2% last season against a Kings penalty kill of 74.6%. Macklin Celebrini, coming off 115 points, is the most dangerous player on the ice. Kevin Fiala is out, but LA already played the opener without Fiala. Neither team is on a back-to-back. At -105, I'll take the better process team with the better expected goalie.

The pick & result

Published pick: Los Angeles Kings ML -105
Published odds: -105
Result: Lost
Final score: 4-5

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

With the expected starter, the goaltending also leans toward LA. Anton Forsberg is listed as the likely starter. Forsberg posted a .910 save percentage across 31 starts last season and closed April with .958, .935 and .960, plus a 27-save shutout of Edmonton. Yaroslav Askarov is confirmed for San Jose. Askarov finished last season at .884 with a 3.63 goals-against average, and three of Askarov's last ten appearances came in at .800 or below.

The 4-8 loss in Colorado looks like an outlier. LA took 53.5% of 5-on-5 shot attempts with the score close that night. The Kings lost because they shot 4.2% at 5-on-5 and saved only .818. One game is a tiny sample, and both numbers sit far from where this club lived last season.

The risks are real. Forsberg is expected but not confirmed, and if Darcy Kuemper starts, most of the goalie gap disappears: Kuemper was .891 last season against Askarov's .884. San Jose's power play ran 21.2% last season against a Kings penalty kill of 74.6%. Macklin Celebrini, coming off 115 points, is the most dangerous player on the ice. Kevin Fiala is out, but LA already played the opener without Fiala. Neither team is on a back-to-back.

At -105, I'll take the better process team with the better expected goalie.

Injuries noted

Los Angeles Kings: Otto Salin (Injured Reserve) — Undisclosed. Salin (undisclosed) was placed on the injured non-roster list Sunday.; Jakub Dvorak (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body; Jan Jenik (Injured Reserve) — Undisclosed. Jenik (undisclosed) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by Los Angeles on Thursday, per Zach Dooley of LA Kings Insider.; Kevin Fiala (Injured Reserve) — Lower Leg. Fiala (lower leg fracture) is at least three weeks away from being ready to play, Zach Dooley of the Kings' official site reports Thursday.

San Jose Sharks: Jacob Trouba (Day-To-Day) — Illness. Trouba (illness) will be a game-time decision against the Kings on Saturday, per Max Miller of NHL.com.; Adam Gaudette (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Gaudette (upper body) will begin the 2026-27 regular season on the injured non-roster list, per Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.; Alex Barre-Boulet (Injured Reserve) — Undisclosed. Barre-Boulet (undisclosed) will begin the 2026-27 regular season on injured reserve, per Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.; Quentin Musty (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Musty (upper body) was put on non-roster injured reserve Monday, according to Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News.; Cam Lund (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Lund (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Kyle Keyser (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Keyser (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.; Patrick Giles (Injured Reserve) — Upper Body. Giles (upper body) was placed on non-roster injured reserve by the Sharks on Monday, Curtis Pashelka of The San Jose Mercury News reports.

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored October 3, 2026 at 8:09 AM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Every pick posts before the game and is graded after, in public. My Book on this website lets you tail or fade listed calls and keeps your record separately labeled; Gary is also available as a native iOS app.

Get Gary on the App Store

Every NHL game this day The NHL record Today's NHL picks Every sport this day