Chicago Blackhawks at Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo is the better team on every season-long measure I have. Chicago arrives for the Sabres' home opener thinner than the group that has already lost twice. Last season Buffalo scored 3.45 goals a game and allowed 2.93, while Chicago scored 2.56 and allowed 3.29. Chicago produced those numbers with Connor Bedard, who had 75 points. Bedard is now on injured reserve with a listed return of Nov. 7. Chicago's first two games match that baseline. The Blackhawks have scored 2 and allowed 11. They are averaging 20.5 shots for and 34.5 against, with 42.2% of 5-on-5 shot attempts and 35.7% of faceoffs. Some of the scoring drought will correct, and Frank Nazar's return between Roman Kantserov and Patrick Kane helps. Getting outshot is the bigger problem, and it gets worse tonight. Bowen Byram is out for a family matter, Kevin Korchinski and Ethan Del Mastro make their season debuts, and the pairings were still rotating at morning skate. None of that is reflected in the two results already on the board. Buffalo's loss at Columbus looks different. The Sabres outshot Columbus 26-23 and held 56.5% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, then got a .786 save percentage at 5-on-5. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen made 17 saves on 22 shots that night, after a 2025-26 season at .910 and 22-9-3. I trust the full season over one game. Spencer Knight is confirmed for Chicago and finished last season at .902 and 19-25-11. Knight can steal a game, but Chicago would need that against a forward group led by Tage Thompson, with 81 points last season, and a blue line led by Rasmus Dahlin, with 74. Buffalo also beat Chicago 9-3 and 5-1 last season, both in regulation. The price asks a lot. With Bedard and Byram both out and Chicago getting outshot this badly on the road, I have Buffalo clearing it at home.