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NFL · Thu, Oct 15 · 8:15 PM

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos

O/U 36.5 · SPREAD Seattle Seahawks -1.5 · Empower Field at Mile High

GARY'S PICK
Seahawks -2.5
NFL@ Broncos· -110

Seahawks
-2.5

-110 · LOST · SEA 14 · DEN 17

Broncos

The pick & result

Published pick
Seattle Seahawks -2.5 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
14-17

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 50 moves
MarketOpened
Oct 11 6:11 PM
Close
Oct 15 7:23 PM
Move
SPREADSeattle Seahawks -2 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)+½
TOTAL42 (-110)40.5 (-110)−1½
MONEYLINESeattle Seahawks -135Seattle Seahawks -145−10
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENOct 11 6:11 PMSeattle Seahawks -2 (-110)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -135 · Denver Broncos +110
Oct 11 6:21 PMSeattle Seahawks -2 (-110)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -130 · Denver Broncos +110
Oct 11 6:41 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -135 · Denver Broncos +110
Oct 11 6:51 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)42 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Oct 11 7:21 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)42.5 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Oct 11 7:31 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-115)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -140 · Denver Broncos +115
Oct 11 7:41 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (+100)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 11 7:51 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 11 9:21 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 11 9:51 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (+100)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 11 10:21 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 11 10:51 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)42.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 12 12:52 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)41.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Denver Broncos +135
Oct 12 9:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-108)41.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 12 10:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 12 11:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 12 12:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 12 8:19 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 12 9:19 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 13 6:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 13 7:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 13 8:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 13 9:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-118)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -155 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 13 11:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-102)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -160 · Denver Broncos +130
Oct 13 3:02 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 8:20 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 14 9:31 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 10:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-115)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 12:34 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 2:34 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 3:35 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 4:35 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 6:29 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 14 9:08 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 5:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 8:01 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-112)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 8:32 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 9:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 9:31 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)41 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 10:01 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)41 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 11:01 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 11:31 AMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +120
Oct 15 12:00 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 12:31 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 5:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 5:37 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 5:59 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)40.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 6:21 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-108)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 6:45 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -150 · Denver Broncos +125
Oct 15 7:13 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125
CLOSEOct 15 7:23 PMSeattle Seahawks -2.5 (-110)40.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -145 · Denver Broncos +125

The read

Last season's two No. 1 seeds meet at Mile High on a short week. Both are 3-2, and both were humbled by the unbeaten 49ers. The defending champs are laying 2.5 on the road, and I'm laying it with them.

Seattle's record undersells how it has played. Both losses were one-score games, 31-33 at Washington and 29-32 against San Francisco. Seattle turned it over seven times in those two games, against two in its three wins. Against the 49ers, three giveaways became touchdowns on drives no longer than 18 yards. Turnovers swing wildly week to week, and the staff is building Darnold a simpler, faster plan for Thursday. Clean that up and this is still the team that won the Super Bowl.

The defense hasn't gone anywhere. Seattle allows the fewest yards per game (251.2), yards per play (4.1) and pass yards per game (150.8) in the league. Denver's offense is the wrong unit to test that. Nix has struggled through five weeks, and Sean Payton's first game calling plays was underwhelming. The Broncos managed 14 at San Francisco and 10 at Kansas City, the two good defenses they've seen. They fell behind at half against Kansas City, Jacksonville and the Rams. A Nix who is playing it safe won't win by margin.

The injuries hit exactly where Seattle attacks. Hufanga is out, a second defensive back is out, and Denver elevated two practice-squad DBs. Riley Moss is questionable, and Brandon Jones is the only safety on the starter list. Jaxon Smith-Njigba practiced fully and carries no designation. That thin secondary has to handle Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp and Rashid Shaheed.

The common opponents point the same way. Seattle lost 29-32 to San Francisco despite four turnovers, while Denver lost 14-24 there. Seattle beat the winless Chargers 30-23; Denver beat them 23-17. This line isn't inflated by recent results either: Seattle is off a loss, Denver is off a win, and Seattle is still the road favorite.

The risks are real. Darnold has five interceptions, and Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen can add to that. A low-scoring grind where Seattle wins by less than a field goal also loses. Drake Thomas is out at linebacker. But at 2.5, the better team on the field is Seattle.

Injuries noted

Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (PUP-R) — Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports.; Robbie Ouzts (IR) — ir; Jake Bobo (IR) — The Seahawks placed Bobo (knee) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Bud Clark (IR); Mason Richman (IR) — The Seahawks placed Richman (leg) on injured reserve Tuesday, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Anthony Bradford (IR) — The Seahawks placed Bradford (knee) on injured reserve Wednesday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Jadarian Price (IR) — Price (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Chazz Surratt (Out) — Surratt (calf) has been ruled out for Thursday night's contest against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Julian Neal (IR) — The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports.; Drake Thomas (Out) — Thomas (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday night's game against the Broncos, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.

Denver Broncos: Caleb Lohner (IR-R) — Lohner (lower body) was placed on injured reserve by the Broncos on Sunday with a designation to return, Aric DiLalla of the team's official website reports.; Nick Gargiulo (PUP-R) — Gargiulo (knee) was moved to the reserve/PUP list by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Michael Deiter (IR) — ir; Matt Henningsen (IR) — ir; Levelle Bailey (IR) — Bailey (leg) reverted to the Broncos' injured-reserve list Friday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Frank Crum (IR-R) — Crum (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Broncos on Sunday, Aric DiLalla of the team's official site reports.; Jonah Coleman (IR) — Coleman (ankle) is being placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; Pat Bryant (IR) — Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday.; Riley Moss (Questionable) — Moss (ribs) is listed as questionable for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.; Pat Surtain II (Out) — Surtain (ankle) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Seahawks.; Talanoa Hufanga (Out) — Hufanga (ankle) is expected to miss multiple weeks due to the injury he sustained in Sunday's 23-17 win over the Chargers, Jeremy Fowler and Jeff Legwold of ESPN.com report.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Sam Darnold is the projected starting quarterback for SEA

    7.7 Y/A

    Through 4 games in 2026, Sam Darnold threw for 755 passing yards, completed 64.3% of his passes and averaged 7.7 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 4048 yards, completed 67.7% and averaged 8.49 yards per attempt, 25-14 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 7-5 touchdown-to-interception line is 4 games in.

  • Bo Nix is the projected starting quarterback for DEN

    5.82 Y/A

    Through 5 games in 2026, Bo Nix threw for 942 passing yards, completed 59.9% of his passes and averaged 5.82 yards per attempt. Last season over 17 games he threw for 3931 yards, completed 63.4% and averaged 6.42 yards per attempt, 25-11 touchdowns to interceptions. This season's 6-3 touchdown-to-interception line is 5 games in.

TRENCHES

  • SEA: 100.4 rushing yards allowed per game to DEN's 145.2

    44.8 YPG

    Seattle allows 100.4 rushing yards a game over five games, Denver 145.2. Rushing yards depend on game script, since teams protecting a lead run more. Denver's number may partly reflect falling behind, but giving up 145.2 is a real weakness. The Seahawks offense can lean on the run in Denver.

PASS RUSH

  • DEN: 5.6 sack yards lost per game to SEA's 16.2

    10.6 YDS

    SEA is at 16.2 sack yards lost per game over 5 games; DEN is at 5.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 14.3 over 17 games and DEN at 9.5 over 17 games.

  • DEN: 1.2 sacks taken per game to SEA's 2.2

    1 SACKS

    SEA is at 2.2 sacks taken per game over 5 games; DEN is at 1.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 2.08 over 17 games and DEN at 1.77 over 17 games.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • SEA: 26.8 points per game to DEN's 19.4

    7.4 PPG

    Seattle scores about a touchdown more per game than Denver over 5 games. Both teams are down from last season, Seattle from 28.4 and Denver from 23.6, so the Broncos' slip is the bigger one. Seattle's number sits close to its old level and should hold; Denver's could climb back toward last year's mark, which keeps this spot closer than the gap suggests.

TURNOVERS

  • SEA: 2.2 takeaways per game to DEN's 1.4

    0.8 TO

    SEA is at 2.2 takeaways per game over 5 games; DEN is at 1.4 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 14.

  • DEN: 1.2 turnovers committed per game to SEA's 1.8

    0.6 TO

    SEA is at 1.8 turnovers committed per game over 5 games; DEN is at 1.2 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 1.65 over 17 games and DEN at 1 over 17 games.

  • DEN: 0.6 interceptions thrown per game to SEA's 1

    0.4 INT

    SEA is at 1 interceptions thrown per game over 5 games; DEN is at 0.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 0.88 over 17 games and DEN at 0.65 over 17 games.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • SEA: 5.5 yards per play to DEN's 4.62

    0.88 Y/P

    Seattle gains almost a yard more per play than Denver over 5 games. Sam Darnold hit Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 38 and 35 last game, and Seattle had 3 plays of 20-plus yards to Denver's 1, a 34-yarder from Bo Nix to Evan Engram. Both teams are below last season, SEA 5.98 and DEN 5.32, and Seattle's big-play receivers make it the side more likely to flip field position.

RED ZONE

  • DEN: 53.3% red-zone scoring allowed to SEA's 75%

    21.7 PP

    SEA is at 75% red-zone scoring allowed over 5 games; DEN is at 53.3% over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 14.

MISMATCH

  • SEA: 5.5 yards a snap to DEN's 4.62

    5.5 VS 4.62

    Seattle gains 5.5 yards a snap to Denver's 4.62 through five games. Both teams are down from last season, Seattle from 5.98 and Denver from 5.32, but the gap between them has held. The Seahawks move the ball more easily, and the Broncos at home need to win the field position game to stay close.

COVERAGE

  • SEA: 29.4% third downs allowed to DEN's 45.2%

    15.8 PP

    Seattle allows conversions on just 29.4% of third downs over five games, while Denver gives up 45.2%. Third-down rates tend to drift toward average, so Seattle will probably allow a few more and Denver a few fewer. The gap is still large enough to matter. Seattle's defense gets off the field, while Denver keeps drives alive, so the Seahawks can expect to sustain more drives in Denver.

  • SEA: 4.1 yards per play allowed to DEN's 5.2

    1.1 Y/P

    Seattle allows 4.1 yards per play over five games, Denver 5.2, which is the gap between a stingy defense and an average one. Five games is a fair sample, though opponents are not listed. Seattle's figure is strong enough that some regression would still leave it good. In Denver, the Seahawks defense should make the Broncos earn every yard.

  • SEA: 150.8 passing yards allowed per game to DEN's 202.2

    51.4 YPG

    SEA is at 150.8 passing yards allowed per game over 5 games; DEN is at 202.2 over 5 games. Those are what each defense has allowed in this season's games through Oct 14.

REPLACEMENT

  • Sam Ehlinger (QB) is out for DEN

    OUT

    Ehlinger is inactive Thursday against Seattle as a coach's decision, so there is no injury here. He stays listed as Denver's emergency quarterback, which means he only matters if something goes wrong with the passers ahead of him. For betting, this changes nothing about Denver's plan at quarterback for this game.

  • Pat Surtain II (CB) is out for DEN

    OUT

    Surtain is already ruled out with an ankle injury for Thursday's game against Seattle, so there is no game-day decision to wait on. Denver goes into this one without its listed corner, and the Seahawks' receivers get a look at a secondary without him. If you are weighing Seattle passing numbers, start from the fact that his absence is confirmed as of Oct 14.

  • Tyler Onyedim (DT) is out for DEN

    OUT

    DEN lists Tyler Onyedim as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Jordan Jackson (DT) is out for DEN

    OUT

    DEN lists Jordan Jackson as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Talanoa Hufanga (S) is out for DEN

    OUT

    DEN lists Talanoa Hufanga as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Brandon Pili (DT) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Brandon Pili as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Kage Casey (OT) is out for DEN

    OUT

    DEN lists Kage Casey as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Elijah Arroyo (TE) is doubtful for SEA

    DOUBTFUL

    Arroyo (shoulder) is doubtful to return to Thursday's game against Denver. Reported Oct 16.

  • Chazz Surratt (LB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    Surratt has a calf injury and Seattle has already ruled him out for Thursday night in Denver, so there is no game-time decision here. The report does not say who takes his linebacker snaps, so check the Seahawks' depth chart before kickoff and expect a backup in coverage and run fits.

  • Avery Smith (CB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Avery Smith as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Robert Henry Jr. (RB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    SEA lists Robert Henry Jr. as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Montorie Foster Jr. (WR) is out for SEA

    OUT

    Seattle has ruled Foster out for Thursday's game in Denver. The report gives no injury detail, so the reason and the length of the absence are unclear. Out means he will not play, and his snaps go to the other Seattle receivers on the depth chart.

  • Dallen Bentley (TE) is out for DEN

    OUT

    DEN lists Dallen Bentley as out on the injury report. Reported Oct 15.

  • Jalen Milroe (QB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    This is a coach's decision with no injury involved. Milroe stays inactive for Thursday's game in Denver and is again the emergency quarterback, so he only plays if the starter and backup both go down. For betting, nothing about Seattle's game plan changes from this.

  • Drake Thomas (LB) is out for SEA

    OUT

    Thomas will not play Thursday night in Denver because of an ankle injury, so Seattle goes into a short-week road game without one of its linebackers. The report does not name a replacement, so look for the depth chart behind him to take his snaps. On a Thursday turnaround there is little time to adjust, which makes it worth checking who starts at linebacker before you bet on the Broncos' run game or their tight end.

  • Tyler Badie (RB) is questionable for DEN

    QUESTIONABLE

    Badie (thumb) won't return to Thursday's game against Seattle, Zac Stevens of TheDNVR.com reports. He finished with one carry for six yards. Reported Oct 16.

  • Jaylen Waddle (WR) is questionable for DEN

    QUESTIONABLE

    DEN lists Jaylen Waddle as questionable on the injury report. Reported Oct 16.

  • Zach Charbonnet (RB) is pup-r for SEA

    PUP-R

    Charbonnet (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game at Denver, Corbin K. Smith of EmeraldCitySpectrum.com reports. Reported Oct 14.

  • Pat Bryant (WR) is on injured reserve for DEN

    IR

    Bryant (ankle) was placed on the Broncos' injured reserve Friday. Reported Oct 9.

  • Julian Neal (CB) is on injured reserve for SEA

    IR

    The Seahawks placed Neal (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday, John Boyle of the team's official site reports. Reported Oct 11.

  • Jadarian Price (RB) is on injured reserve for SEA

    IR

    Price (chest) was placed on injured reserve Saturday, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. Reported Oct 3.

PRACTICE REPORT

  • Chazz Surratt

    Out

    Calf · Did not practice · Out

  • Talanoa Hufanga

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Drake Thomas

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Pat Surtain II

    Out

    Ankle · Did not practice · Out

  • Zach Charbonnet

    Out

    Knee · Limited practice · Out

  • Riley Moss

    Questionable

    Ribs · Limited practice · Questionable

  • Drew Lock

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Leonard Williams

    LP

    Limited practice

  • Sai'vion Jones

    FP

    Full practice

  • Beau Stephens

    FP

    Full practice

  • Irv Charles

    FP

    Full practice

  • George Holani

    FP

    Full practice

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba

    FP

    Full practice

  • Ben Powers

    FP

    Full practice

  • Brandon Jones

    FP

    Full practice

SITUATIONAL

  • SEA: 6.9 yards per pass attempt to DEN's 5.46

    1.44 Y/A

    SEA is at 6.9 yards per pass attempt over 5 games; DEN is at 5.46 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 8.01 over 17 games and DEN at 5.99 over 17 games.

  • SEA (3-2) at DEN (3-2)

    -43 PT GAP

    Both teams are 3-2, but Seattle is +29 and Denver is -14. The Broncos' record flatters them, and the Seahawks' undersells them. Denver is 2-0 at home, which partly explains how a negative-margin team has a winning record, so the question is whether home field alone can cover a gap that large in underlying play.

  • SEA: 222 team passing yards per game to DEN's 182.8

    39.2 YPG

    SEA is at 222 team passing yards per game over 5 games; DEN is at 182.8 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 228.1 over 17 games and DEN at 223.9 over 17 games.

  • SEA: 1.2 fourth-down attempts per game to DEN's 0.6

    0.6 ATT/G

    SEA is at 1.2 fourth-down attempts per game over 5 games; DEN is at 0.6 over 5 games. Those are this season's games through Oct 14. Last season SEA was at 0.71 over 17 games and DEN at 1.18 over 17 games.

  • SEA is on a short week

    4d vs 4d

    Seattle and Denver both come in on 4 days of rest, so the calendar is a wash. Short weeks for both teams usually mean simpler schemes and more fatigue, which matters most for bettors thinking about how crisp each offense will look.

AFTER GARY

  • SEA -2.5 → -2.5

    GARY +1.11PP

    Gary's number was -2.5; the same book now shows -2.5.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored October 15, 2026 at 10:07 AM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    COURTLAND SUTTONRECEIVING YARDS UNDER 33.5
    NFLDenver Broncos· -115

    Courtland Sutton
    Receiving Yards under 33.5

    -115 · CASHED · ACTUAL 19

    Denver Broncos

    I'm taking Courtland Sutton under 33.5 receiving yards at -115.

    Sutton is on the field for most of Denver's offensive snaps every week, and the yards haven't come with the playing time. In five games he has 11 catches on 26 targets for 104 yards. By game, newest first: 18, 4, 46, 25, 11. The book hung 38.5 on him each of the last two weeks, and he answered with 18 at the Chargers and 4 at San Francisco.

    The matchup points the same way. Bo Nix is throwing the shortest passes in the league, with the lowest downfield rate and the fewest air yards per attempt among qualified quarterbacks. Sutton earns his money on intermediate and boundary throws, and those are the throws Nix keeps passing up. Seattle brings the second-highest pressure rate in the league and allows the fewest passing yards per game. Nix has been one of the league's worst passers under pressure, and he told everyone this week that against the league's top takeaway defense he plans to check it down, throw it away and punt before he forces a ball. That plan feeds the backs and the tight ends. It starves the receiver who needs a clean pocket and a throw downfield.

    The case against me is real. Over the ten 2025 games on his sheet, Sutton averaged 54.8 yards, so the talent is there. Pat Bryant is on injured reserve, which leaves more targets in the room. Nix has been better at home, with 288 yards against Jacksonville and 186 against the Rams, and Sutton's best game of the year, 46 yards, came in that Rams game. If Seattle builds a lead, Denver has to throw, and one contested catch down the sideline gets him most of the way to this number. Five games is a small sample. I still want the under against this defense with this version of Nix.

  • GARY'S PICK
    JAYLEN WADDLERECEIVING YARDS UNDER 46.5
    NFLDenver Broncos· -113

    Jaylen Waddle
    Receiving Yards under 46.5

    -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 24

    Denver Broncos

    I'm taking Jaylen Waddle under 46.5 receiving yards at -113.

    This is Waddle's first season in Denver, and five games have produced 19, 35, 10, 138 and 2 yards, newest first. The 138 came at home against Jacksonville in Week 2. Outside that one game his best day is 35. The number has already come down from 55.5 last week, and I think it is still leaning on that Jacksonville game. His volume is steady and modest: 18 of Denver's 91 targets over the last three games, usually five to seven looks. To clear this line on that workload he needs a long catch or a big run after the catch.

    Seattle takes both of those away. It allows the fewest yards per play in the league and the second-fewest explosive plays, and it has missed the fewest tackles of any defense. Denver's passing game lives on short throws, many of them behind the line of scrimmage, and those only work when the receiver breaks a tackle. Seattle rallies to the ball and finishes. Add the pressure Seattle generates against a quarterback who already struggles when hurried, and the deep shot that would cash this over is the throw Nix is least likely to make.

    The risk is Waddle's speed. One slant that he takes the distance can beat this ticket on its own, and the 138 shows the ceiling. Nix has thrown for more at home than on the road, Pat Bryant is on injured reserve, and with Sutton struggling, targets could funnel toward Waddle. Seattle's cornerback rotation has shifted, with Nehemiah Pritchett barely playing last week. If Denver falls behind and has to throw all fourth quarter, the volume climbs. I'll take the under against the best tackling defense in the league.

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