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NFL · Sun, Sep 20 · 4:25 PM

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

O/U 38.5 · SPREAD Seattle Seahawks -23.5 · State Farm Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Cardinals +4.5
NFLvs Seahawks· -120

Cardinals
+4.5

-120 · LOST · SEA 31 · ARI 7

Seahawks

The pick & result

Published pick
Arizona Cardinals +4.5 -120
Published odds
-120
Result
Lost
Final score
31-7

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 30 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 14 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 20 3:36 PM
Move
SPREADSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -4 (-105)−½
TOTAL41 (-108)41 (-110)Price
MONEYLINESeattle Seahawks -225Seattle Seahawks -220+5
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 14 6:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-105)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185
Sep 14 9:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -225 · Arizona Cardinals +188
Sep 14 2:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-105)41 (-115)Seattle Seahawks -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185
Sep 14 3:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-105)41.5 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185
Sep 14 5:03 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-105)41.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185
Sep 14 5:35 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -225 · Arizona Cardinals +185
Sep 15 9:31 AMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-112)41.5 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180
Sep 15 11:01 AMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-105)41.5 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180
Sep 15 2:01 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 15 6:01 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 15 8:01 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -220 · Arizona Cardinals +180
Sep 15 9:02 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 15 11:02 PMSeattle Seahawks -4.5 (-108)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 16 12:02 AMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 17 2:02 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41 (-112)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 17 9:46 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 19 2:08 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-105)41 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 19 2:39 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-110)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 19 4:09 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-105)41 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 19 6:11 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-105)41 (-105)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 20 6:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 20 9:00 AMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 20 9:10 AMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 20 9:41 AMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +170
Sep 20 12:25 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-110)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 20 12:45 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-110)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 20 1:35 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -210 · Arizona Cardinals +175
Sep 20 3:06 PMSeattle Seahawks -3 (-118)41 (-108)Seattle Seahawks -200 · Arizona Cardinals +165
Sep 20 3:16 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-108)41.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -275 · Arizona Cardinals +220
Sep 20 3:26 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (+100)41.5 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -235 · Arizona Cardinals +195
CLOSESep 20 3:36 PMSeattle Seahawks -4 (-105)41 (-110)Seattle Seahawks -220 · Arizona Cardinals +185

The read

Both teams arrive unbeaten for an early NFC West meeting at State Farm Stadium. Arizona returns home after winning at the Chargers; Seattle begins its road schedule with Drew Lock taking over for the injured Sam Darnold.

I’m taking the points because Arizona showed a credible way to sustain offense without needing repeated explosive plays. Brissett completed 27 of 37 passes for 277 yards without an interception, and the Cardinals generated 23 first downs. Trey McBride and Kendrick Bourne give him productive options underneath that result. That does not guarantee another efficient afternoon against Seattle, but it gives Arizona more substance than its underdog status alone might suggest.

Seattle’s quarterback change is not the whole argument. Lock already handled 90% of its opening offensive snaps and played well, so treating Darnold’s absence as an entirely new downgrade would misread that performance. The fresh offensive-line absence matters more to my assessment of what changes this week: Seattle must replace a starting guard after allowing six quarterback hits on 27 dropbacks against New England. Arizona recorded three sacks in its opener. That creates a plausible route to disrupting Seattle’s possessions without requiring another exceptional takeaway performance.

Seattle’s defense is the strongest objection. Its established quality deserves respect, and Arizona’s two touchdowns from five red-zone trips show how productive possessions can still end short. But Seattle also converted just two of eleven third downs and needed three fourth-quarter interceptions to complete its opening comeback. Better preparation for Lock could help correct the costly penalties; I would not assume that improvement produces enough separation to cover this spread.

The distinction is between trusting Arizona to compete and requiring it to win. At +4.5, a narrow Seattle victory still leaves this ticket alive. I prefer that protection at -120 to Arizona’s +176 moneyline: the Cardinals have shown enough offensive functionality to challenge Seattle, while Seattle’s defense keeps me from making the outright upset the bet.

Injuries noted

Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (PUP-R) — Coach Mike Macdonald said Friday that the Seahawks are drawing closer to setting a date for Charbonnet (knee) to resume practicing, Gregg Bell of The Tacoma News Tribune reports.; Nick Emmanwori (Questionable) — Emmanwori (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Robbie Ouzts (IR) — Neck; Jake Bobo (IR) — Knee; Irv Charles (IR-R) — Charles (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Seahawks on Sunday with a designation to return, John Boyle of the team's official website reports.; Bud Clark (IR) — The Seahawks placed Clark (ankle) on injured reserve Tuesday, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Tory Horton (Questionable) — questionable; Ty Okada (Out) — Okada (hamstring) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Mason Richman (IR) — The Seahawks placed Richman (leg) on injured reserve Tuesday, Brady Henderson of ESPN.com reports.; Nick Kallerup (Inactive) — inactive; Jalen Milroe (Inactive) — Milroe (coach's decision) will be the emergency third quarterback for the Wednesday night matchup with the Patriots.; Mike Morris (Inactive) — inactive; Beau Stephens (Inactive) — inactive; Sam Darnold (Out) — Darnold (glute), who has been ruled out for Sunday's game in Arizona, is "recovering faster than anyone had anticipated" and has a "pretty good chance" of practicing at some point during Week 3 prep, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Anthony Bradford (Out) — Bradford (knee) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.; Josh Jones (Questionable) — questionable; Cooper Kupp (Questionable) — Kupp was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice due to a back injury, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports.

Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (IR-R) — The Cardinals are placing Conner (foot) on injured reserve with a designation to return, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reports.; Tip Reiman (PUP-R) — The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Joey Blount (IR) — Neck; Zachary Carter (IR-R) — The Cardinals placed Carter (knee) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kaleb Proctor (IR) — ir; Chase Bisontis (IR) — ir; Trey Benson (IR) — Benson (knee) reverted to the Cardinals' injured reserve list Tuesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Jameson Geers (IR) — Undisclosed; Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Questionable) — Taylor-Demerson (ribs) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Isaiah Adams (Questionable) — Adams (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Garrett Williams (Out) — Williams (Achilles) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Carson Beck (Inactive) — Beck (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Chargers.; Andrew Billings (Questionable) — Billings (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Seattle, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Reggie Virgil (Inactive) — inactive; Kitan Crawford (IR) — The Cardinals placed Crawford (ankle) on their injured reserve list Wednesday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Jack Gibbens (Questionable) — Gibbens (shoulder) was a limited participant at practice Wednesday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Roy Lopez (Questionable) — Lopez (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Max Melton (Questionable) — Melton (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Isaac Seumalo (Questionable) — Seumalo (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Seahawks, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Cody Simon (Questionable) — questionable

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Drew Lock is the projected starting quarterback for SEA

    8.5 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Drew Lock threw for 187 passing yards, completed 72.7% of his passes and averaged 8.5 yards per attempt. His 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

  • Jacoby Brissett is the projected starting quarterback for ARI

    7.49 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Jacoby Brissett threw for 277 passing yards, completed 73% of his passes and averaged 7.49 yards per attempt. His 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

TRENCHES

  • SEA gets +1 more yards a carry

    1 Y/C

    SEA is at 4.4 yards per rush attempt over 1 game; ARI is at 3.4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • ARI's front holds runners to 28 fewer yards per game

    28 YPG

    SEA is at 109 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; ARI is at 81 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

PASS RUSH

  • ARI's pocket leaks 12 fewer yards per game

    12 YDS

    SEA is at 12 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; ARI is at 0 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • ARI's offense takes 1 fewer sacks per game

    1 SACKS

    SEA is at 2 sacks taken per game over 1 game; ARI is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • ARI is scoring +13 points per game

    13 PPG

    SEA is at 13 points per game over 1 game; ARI is at 26 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • ARI holds the ball 11:48 longer per game

    11:48 TOP

    SEA is at 25:43 time of possession per game over 1 game; ARI is at 37:31 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • ARI runs +24 more plays per game

    24 PLAYS

    SEA is at 48 offensive plays per game over 1 game; ARI is at 72 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SEA's defense gives up 4 fewer points per game

    4 PPG

    SEA is at 10 points allowed per game over 1 game; ARI is at 14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

TURNOVERS

  • SEA's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    SEA is at 3 takeaways per game over 1 game; ARI is at 2 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • SEA owns a +0.4 yards-per-play gap

    0.4 Y/P

    SEA is at 5.9 yards per play over 1 game; ARI is at 5.5 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

RED ZONE

  • ARI's red-zone scoring rate is 40 percentage points higher

    40 PP

    SEA is at 0% red-zone scoring rate over 1 game; ARI is at 40% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • ARI gets inside the 20 3 more times per game

    3 TRIPS

    SEA is at 2 red-zone trips per game over 1 game; ARI is at 5 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • SEA allows a red-zone scoring rate 16.7 percentage points lower

    16.7 PP

    SEA is at 50% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; ARI is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

MISMATCH

  • ARI's clock control — 37:31 of possession a game to SEA's 25:43

    37:31 VS 25:43

    The widest gap on this matchup's tape: possession — SEA 25:43, ARI 37:31, over 1 and 1 game samples.

COVERAGE

  • SEA's defense surrenders 1.2 fewer yards a snap

    1.2 Y/P

    SEA is at 4.1 yards per play allowed over 1 game; ARI is at 5.3 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • ARI allows a third-down conversion rate 6.3 percentage points lower

    6.3 PP

    SEA is at 31.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; ARI is at 25% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

  • SEA lead the series with ARI since 2025

    2-0 SERIES

    SEA took both meetings with ARI since 2025, winning 44-22 at home on Nov. 9, 2025 and 23-20 at ARI on Sep. 25, 2025. The series included one three-point result and one 44-22 SEA win.

REPLACEMENT

  • Tory Horton (WR) is questionable for SEA

    QUESTIONABLE

    questionable Reported Sep 15.

  • Sam Darnold (QB) is inactive for SEA

    INACTIVE

    inactive Reported Sep 20.

  • Cooper Kupp (WR) is questionable for SEA

    QUESTIONABLE

    Kupp was a limited participant in Wednesday's practice due to a back injury, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. Reported Sep 17.

  • Carson Beck (QB) is inactive for ARI

    INACTIVE

    Beck (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback against the Seahawks on Sunday, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Sep 20.

SITUATIONAL

  • SEA has 4 more days of rest

    11d vs 7d

    SEA enters with 11 days of rest and a bye behind it. ARI has had 7 days since its last game, a 4-day spacing gap for SEA @ ARI.

  • SEA (1-0) at ARI (1-0) — a division game

    +9 PT GAP

    SEA is 1-0, +3 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. ARI is 1-0, +12 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. SEA is 0-0 on the road; ARI is 0-0 at home. Both live in the NFC WEST.

  • SEA gives away 13 fewer penalty yards per game

    13 YDS

    SEA is at 98 penalty yards per game over 1 game; ARI is at 111 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

AFTER GARY

  • ARI +4.5 → +4.5

    GARY +0.41PP

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    JACOBY BRISSETTPASSING YARDS OVER 216.5
    NFLArizona Cardinals· -113

    Jacoby Brissett
    Passing Yards over 216.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 95

    Arizona Cardinals

    I’m taking over 216.5 passing yards at -113. Brissett threw for 277 yards on 37 attempts in the opener, and he surpassed this line in eight of his final 10 games last season while averaging 276.7 yards.

    Arizona protects him with quick, efficient throws, and Trey McBride, Kendrick Bourne and Michael Wilson give him three established options. The strongest counter is Seattle’s defense: it allowed only 178 passing yards in Week 1, intercepted three passes and held New England to 4.67 net yards per attempt.

    That is a serious matchup, but 216.5 is low enough for Brissett’s demonstrated volume.

  • THE LONG SHOT
    TREY MCBRIDEANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
    NFLArizona Cardinals· +200

    Trey McBride
    Anytime TD over 0.5

    +200 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

    Arizona Cardinals

    I’m taking McBride to score at +200. He commanded 13 targets in Week 1 and converted a three-yard red-zone target for a touchdown, confirming that his heavy usage extends to the most valuable part of the field. He also scored in his most recent meeting with Seattle.

    With Ty Okada out and Nick Emmanwori questionable, Seattle could again be short-handed at safety against the player Arizona most frequently works through the middle. The strongest contrary evidence is Seattle’s overall defensive quality and its explicit focus on McBride. The Seahawks allowed only 10 points in their opener, and touchdown results are volatile even for a featured player.

    The 2-to-1 return is what makes that difficult matchup playable.

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