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NFL · Sun, Sep 20 · 1:00 PM

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

O/U 43.5 · SPREAD Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 · Nissan Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Eagles -7
NFL@ Titans· -110

Eagles
-7

-110 · LOST · PHI 24 · TEN 20

Titans

The pick & result

Published pick
Philadelphia Eagles -7 -110
Published odds
-110
Result
Lost
Final score
24-20

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The line

BETMGM · 39 moves
MarketOpened
Sep 14 6:00 AM
Close
Sep 20 12:35 PM
Move
SPREADPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-110)Price
TOTAL40 (-108)39.5 (-110)−½
MONEYLINEPhiladelphia Eagles -325Philadelphia Eagles -325Holds
Every move, in order ›
WhenSpreadTotalMoneyline
OPENSep 14 6:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)40 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 8:01 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 10:01 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 1:33 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 2:03 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 4:03 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 5:03 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 7:06 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 9:18 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 14 9:48 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 15 2:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 15 5:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)39 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 15 7:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)39.5 (-112)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 15 8:01 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-108)39 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 15 10:02 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 16 8:31 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 16 9:31 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 16 2:31 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 16 7:37 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 18 9:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-112)39 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 18 10:01 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 18 11:01 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 18 1:02 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 18 6:05 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 18 7:06 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 18 10:02 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 18 11:02 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 19 12:02 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 19 10:11 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 19 8:26 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-118)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 20 12:14 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 20 6:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +260
Sep 20 8:19 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 20 8:51 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +260
Sep 20 9:00 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-108)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 20 9:41 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 20 11:22 AMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +275
Sep 20 12:14 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-115)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270
Sep 20 12:25 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)40 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -350 · Tennessee Titans +270
CLOSESep 20 12:35 PMPhiladelphia Eagles -7 (-110)39.5 (-110)Philadelphia Eagles -325 · Tennessee Titans +270

The read

Nashville hosts this Week 2 matchup with afternoon heat in the forecast. Tennessee stays home looking for its first win, while Philadelphia arrives after surviving a tight divisional opener.

I’m backing Philadelphia’s broader offensive threats against a Tennessee defense that struggled against both the run and pass. The Titans allowed 152 rushing yards and 8.96 yards per pass attempt against the Jets. Saquon Barkley and Jalen Hurts can challenge them on the ground, while Dallas Goedert, Dontayvion Wicks and DeVonta Smith give Philadelphia several receiving options. The Eagles’ explosive gains last week showed how they can turn an uneven offensive afternoon into touchdowns.

The more important separation opportunity comes when Tennessee has the ball. The Titans produced 195 yards against the Jets, with their only touchdown arriving after they trailed 23-3. Cam Ward’s protection problems make it difficult to count on a sustained turnaround against Philadelphia. The Eagles allowed 4.34 yards per play against Washington, and Zack Baun’s coverage performance strengthens their case against a Tennessee passing game whose leading receivers finished with modest yardage.

Laying seven requires acknowledging Philadelphia’s own problems. Four three-and-outs in the opener and a newly changed interior offensive line give Jeffery Simmons a route to disrupt drives. Washington’s late comeback also showed that an Eagles lead is no guarantee of a cover. Those concerns keep my confidence measured.

Still, I see Philadelphia as better equipped to create scoring opportunities and force Tennessee into another difficult game of catch-up. Tennessee’s spread case depends on improving its protection while limiting Philadelphia’s explosive gains. I’m backing the Eagles to generate enough separation to cover -7, rather than paying an ineligible moneyline price.

Injuries noted

Philadelphia Eagles: Jonathan Greenard (Out) — Greenard (pectoral) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Titans.; Tucker Large (NFI-R) — Undisclosed; Jakorian Bennett (IR-R) — Bennett (knee) was placed on injured reserve with a designation to return by the Eagles on Sunday.; Grant Calcaterra (IR-R) — Calcaterra (back) was placed on injured reserve by the Eagles on Sunday with a designation to return.; Andre' Sam (IR) — Sam (foot) reverted to the Eagles' injured-reserve list Monday, Andrew DiCecco of InsideTheBirds.com reports.; Eli Stowers (IR) — The Eagles placed Stowers (quadriceps/hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Johnny Wilson (IR) — Wilson (knee) reverted to Philadelphia's injured reserve Saturday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Tanner McKee (Inactive) — McKee (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Elijah Moore (Inactive) — Moore (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Micah Morris (Inactive) — inactive; Cole Payton (Inactive) — Payton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Marcus Epps (Questionable) — Epps (shoulder) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Commanders.; Landon Dickerson (IR) — The Eagles placed Dickerson (knee) on injured reserve Tuesday, Chris McPherson of the team's official site reports.; Jalen Carter (Questionable) — Carter (wrist) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.; Cooper DeJean (Questionable) — Dejean (calf) was a limited participant at practice Thursday.; Andrew Mukuba (Questionable) — Mukuba (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against Tennessee.

Tennessee Titans: Jaylen Harrell (IR) — ir; Jaren Kanak (IR) — ir; Kendell Brooks (IR) — Brooks (undisclosed) reverted to Tennessee's injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Milo Eifler (IR) — ir; Tanoh Kpassagnon (IR) — The Titans placed Kpassagnon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Dorian Mausi (IR-R) — The Titans placed Mausi (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Joshua Williams (IR-R) — The Titans placed Williams (pectoral) on injured reserve Monday with a designation to return, Jim Wyatt of the team's official site reports.; Cedric Gray (Questionable) — Gray (concussion) was a full participant in Friday's practice but is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.; Brandon Crenshaw-Dickson (Inactive) — inactive; Jaylon Jones (Inactive) — Coach's Decision; Atonio Mafi (Inactive) — inactive; Jackie Marshall (Inactive) — inactive; Owen Pappoe (Inactive) — inactive; Nicholas Singleton (Inactive) — Singleton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Jets.; James Williams Sr. (Questionable) — Williams (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.; Cor'Dale Flott (Questionable) — Flott did not participate in Friday's practice due to a quadriceps injury and is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Eagles, Paul Kuharsky of PaulKuharsky.com reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Cam Ward is the projected starting quarterback for TEN

    4.38 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Cam Ward threw for 140 passing yards, completed 59.4% of his passes and averaged 4.38 yards per attempt. His 1-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

  • Jalen Hurts is the projected starting quarterback for PHI

    8.12 Y/A

    In his first 2026 game, Jalen Hurts threw for 203 passing yards, completed 56% of his passes and averaged 8.12 yards per attempt. His 3-0 touchdown-to-interception line comes from a one-game sample, so the relationship between completion rate and per-throw production is still an early read.

TRENCHES

  • PHI's front holds runners to 20 fewer yards per game

    20 YPG

    PHI is at 132 rushing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEN is at 152 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

PASS RUSH

  • PHI's rush gets home 1 more time per game

    1 SACKS

    PHI is at 1 sacks recorded per game over 1 game; TEN is at 0 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • TEN's pocket leaks 8 fewer yards per game

    8 YDS

    PHI is at 21 sack yards lost per game over 1 game; TEN is at 13 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • PHI is scoring +14 points per game

    14 PPG

    PHI is at 24 points per game over 1 game; TEN is at 10 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI holds the ball 5:26 longer per game

    5:26 TOP

    PHI is at 26:40 time of possession per game over 1 game; TEN is at 21:14 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI @ TEN carries a 44.5 market total

    44.5

    PHI @ TEN’s 44.5 total is 6 points above the 38.5 median across 15 games with posted slate totals. It sits above the slate middle but is the closest of these high totals to the median; a departure would show in scoring below 44.5.

TURNOVERS

  • PHI commits 1 fewer turnovers per game

    1 TO

    PHI is at 0 turnovers committed per game over 1 game; TEN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI puts 1 fewer fumbles on the ground per game

    1 FUM

    PHI is at 0 fumbles lost per game over 1 game; TEN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

EXPLOSIVE PLAYS

  • PHI owns a +2 yards-per-play gap

    2 Y/P

    PHI is at 6 yards per play over 1 game; TEN is at 4 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

RED ZONE

  • TEN allows a red-zone scoring rate 33.3 percentage points lower

    33.3 PP

    PHI is at 100% red-zone scoring allowed over 1 game; TEN is at 66.7% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI gets inside the 20 2 more times per game

    2 TRIPS

    PHI is at 3 red-zone trips per game over 1 game; TEN is at 1 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

MISMATCH

  • PHI's explosiveness against TEN's — 6 yards a snap to 4

    6 VS 4

    PHI averaged 6 yards per play and TEN averaged 4 over 1-game samples. That is the listed explosiveness gap, with no TEN defensive measure supplied to show how it can be reduced.

COVERAGE

  • PHI's defense surrenders 1.4 fewer yards a snap

    1.4 Y/P

    PHI is at 4.4 yards per play allowed over 1 game; TEN is at 5.8 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • TEN allows a third-down conversion rate 16.7 percentage points lower

    16.7 PP

    PHI is at 33.3% third downs allowed over 1 game; TEN is at 16.7% over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI's secondary gives up 52 fewer passing yards per game

    52 YPG

    PHI is at 163 passing yards allowed per game over 1 game; TEN is at 215 over 1 game. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-09-19.

REPLACEMENT

  • Saquon Barkley (RB) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Barkley said after Sunday's 24-20 win at Tennessee that he feels "alright," but he'll undergo an MRI after missing a portion of the game due to a stinger, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 20.

  • Tanner McKee (QB) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    McKee (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Titans. Reported Sep 20.

  • Cole Payton (QB) is inactive for PHI

    INACTIVE

    Payton (coach's decision) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Titans. Reported Sep 20.

  • Dallas Goedert (TE) is questionable for PHI

    QUESTIONABLE

    Goedert is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Titans due to a knee injury. Reported Sep 20.

SITUATIONAL

  • PHI averages +2.9 yards every time it drops back

    2.9 Y/A

    PHI is at 6.5 yards per pass attempt over 1 game; TEN is at 3.6 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI's passing game is +55 yards per game

    55 YPG

    PHI is at 182 team passing yards per game over 1 game; TEN is at 127 over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI's third-down conversion rate is 9.5 percentage points higher

    9.5 PP

    PHI is at 42.9% third-down conversion rate over 1 game; TEN is at 33.3% over 1 game. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-09-19.

  • PHI (1-0) at TEN (0-1)

    -15 PT GAP

    PHI is 1-0, +2 points on the year, has won 1 straight this season. TEN is 0-1, -13 points on the year, has lost 1 straight this season. PHI is 0-0 on the road; TEN is 0-1 at home.

AFTER GARY

  • PHI -7 → -7

    NOW +0.93PP

    FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored September 17, 2026 at 4:28 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, caesars, fanduel, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

Props on this game

2
  • GARY'S PICK
    SAQUON BARKLEYRUSHING YARDS OVER 79.5
    NFLPhiladelphia Eagles· -113

    Saquon Barkley
    Rushing Yards over 79.5

    -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 9

    Philadelphia Eagles

    I’m backing Barkley over 79.5 rushing yards at -113. Tennessee surrendered 152 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns to the Jets, while Barkley opened with 83 yards on 15 carries despite Philadelphia struggling to sustain drives.

    The Eagles are seven-point favorites, giving Barkley a favorable path to additional second-half work against a defense that just spent nearly 39 minutes on the field in extreme heat. The strongest counter is his uneven recent record: he cleared this number in only four of his final 10 games last season, and Philadelphia’s new blocking scheme looked unsettled in Week 1.

    This remains a one-game 2026 sample, but the matchup and likely game script support the over.

  • GARY'S PICK
    WAN'DALE ROBINSONRECEIVING YARDS OVER 37.5
    NFLTennessee Titans· -111

    Wan'Dale Robinson
    Receiving Yards over 37.5

    -111 · LOST · ACTUAL 9

    Tennessee Titans

    I’m taking Robinson over 37.5 receiving yards at -111. He drew six targets and caught five passes for 38 yards in the opener, clearing this number even while Tennessee produced only 140 passing yards. He also exceeded 37.5 in seven of his final 10 games last season.

    Philadelphia allowed Cooper DeJean to be targeted nine times for seven completions, 83 yards and a touchdown against Washington, creating a specific opening for Robinson’s underneath role. Tennessee falling behind would further support passing volume. The strongest concern is Cam Ward’s protection: he was pressured on 41% of his Week 1 dropbacks and managed only 17 passing yards under pressure.

    Robinson’s current Titans role is established by just one game, so the bet depends more on repeatable targets than a proven 2026 trend.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.

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