Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers

The read

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

All research from this day

• GARY'S PICK

  JUSTIN HERBERTRUSHING YARDS OVER 18.5

  NFLLos Angeles Chargers· -110

  LOST · ACTUAL 2

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking over 18.5 rushing yards at -110. Herbert ran five times for 29 yards in Week 1 and cleared this line in eight of his final 10 games last season, averaging 34.3 yards over that stretch. Las Vegas produced five sacks and generated pressure on 43.3% of its four-man rushes in the opener, which gives Herbert a reason to leave the pocket when coverage holds. The contrary case is that this is still only one 2026 game, and sacks or quick throws can end pressured plays before they become positive rushing yards. A cleaner Chargers plan could also reduce his scrambling opportunities, but the line remains below his recent rushing output.

  ×

  Justin Herbert
  Rushing Yards over 18.5

  -110 · LOST · ACTUAL 2

  Los Angeles Chargers

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking over 18.5 rushing yards at -110. Herbert ran five times for 29 yards in Week 1 and cleared this line in eight of his final 10 games last season, averaging 34.3 yards over that stretch.

  Las Vegas produced five sacks and generated pressure on 43.3% of its four-man rushes in the opener, which gives Herbert a reason to leave the pocket when coverage holds. The contrary case is that this is still only one 2026 game, and sacks or quick throws can end pressured plays before they become positive rushing yards.

  A cleaner Chargers plan could also reduce his scrambling opportunities, but the line remains below his recent rushing output.

• GARY'S PICK

  ASHTON JEANTYRECEIVING YARDS OVER 22.5

  NFLLas Vegas Raiders· -115

  LOST · ACTUAL 15

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking over 22.5 receiving yards at -115. Jeanty drew six targets and caught all six for 45 yards in the opener, part of a 29-touch, 147-yard workload. That receiving role matters against a Chargers defense that allowed Arizona to repeatedly complete quick throws between the numbers, and Brock Bowers is doubtful, leaving more short-area work available. The strongest objection is the sample: this season gives us only one game, and Jeanty cleared this number in just five of his final 10 games last season, averaging 26.0 receiving yards. Still, the current role is large enough that he does not need another 45-yard day to cash.

  ×

  Ashton Jeanty
  Receiving Yards over 22.5

  -115 · LOST · ACTUAL 15

  Las Vegas Raiders

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking over 22.5 receiving yards at -115. Jeanty drew six targets and caught all six for 45 yards in the opener, part of a 29-touch, 147-yard workload.

  That receiving role matters against a Chargers defense that allowed Arizona to repeatedly complete quick throws between the numbers, and Brock Bowers is doubtful, leaving more short-area work available. The strongest objection is the sample: this season gives us only one game, and Jeanty cleared this number in just five of his final 10 games last season, averaging 26.0 receiving yards.

  Still, the current role is large enough that he does not need another 45-yard day to cash.

• THE LONG SHOT

  ASHTON JEANTYANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLLas Vegas Raiders· +100

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking Jeanty to score an anytime touchdown at +100. He handled 23 carries and six receptions in Week 1, accounting for 29 touches and more than half of Las Vegas’ scrimmage production, and he scored twice as a receiver. That three-down usage makes him the Raider most likely to touch the ball near the goal line, whether Kubiak calls a run or works him into the short passing game. The strongest contrary evidence is that we have only one game in this offense, and the Chargers held Arizona to two touchdowns on five red-zone trips. Jeanty also did not record a rushing touchdown in the opener. At even money, though, his combination of volume and multiple scoring paths is worth the bet.

  ×

  Ashton Jeanty
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  +100 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Las Vegas Raiders

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking Jeanty to score an anytime touchdown at +100. He handled 23 carries and six receptions in Week 1, accounting for 29 touches and more than half of Las Vegas’ scrimmage production, and he scored twice as a receiver.

  That three-down usage makes him the Raider most likely to touch the ball near the goal line, whether Kubiak calls a run or works him into the short passing game. The strongest contrary evidence is that we have only one game in this offense, and the Chargers held Arizona to two touchdowns on five red-zone trips.

  Jeanty also did not record a rushing touchdown in the opener. At even money, though, his combination of volume and multiple scoring paths is worth the bet.

• THE LONG SHOT

  OMARION HAMPTONANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLLos Angeles Chargers· -148

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  GARY'S TAKE

  I’m taking Hampton to score an anytime touchdown at -148. He is the Chargers’ starting back and finished their opening 77-yard drive with a 9-yard touchdown, showing that he owns a direct path to goal-line work. Los Angeles should emphasize cleaner early-down offense after falling into repeated third-and-long situations last week, and Hampton’s power profile fits that correction. The strongest concern is workload and price: he played 58% of the offensive snaps, received only 12 carries, and Las Vegas allowed just 13 points and 74 rushing yards in its opener. This is based on one 2026 game, so I’m keeping the conviction modest despite Hampton’s lead role.

  ×

  Omarion Hampton
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  -148 · CASHED · ACTUAL 1

  Los Angeles Chargers

  Read Gary’s Take

  I’m taking Hampton to score an anytime touchdown at -148. He is the Chargers’ starting back and finished their opening 77-yard drive with a 9-yard touchdown, showing that he owns a direct path to goal-line work.

  Los Angeles should emphasize cleaner early-down offense after falling into repeated third-and-long situations last week, and Hampton’s power profile fits that correction. The strongest concern is workload and price: he played 58% of the offensive snaps, received only 12 carries, and Las Vegas allowed just 13 points and 74 rushing yards in its opener.

  This is based on one 2026 game, so I’m keeping the conviction modest despite Hampton’s lead role.

Every prop from this day is on the archive page.