Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
O/U 61.5 · SPREAD Minnesota Vikings -16.5 · U.S. Bank Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Green Bay Packers +1.5 -104
- Published odds
- -104
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 22-39
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 25 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 13 3:56 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | +1 |
| TOTAL | 46.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | −1 |
| MONEYLINE | Minnesota Vikings -125 | Minnesota Vikings -140 | −15 |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 9 2:44 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-105) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 9 3:14 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 9 4:53 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-105) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 9 5:43 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 12:59 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 2:03 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 3:33 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 4:03 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 5:26 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 5:46 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 10 7:17 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 9:00 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 10:01 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 11:01 AM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 12:02 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-115) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · Green Bay Packers +110 |
| Sep 11 1:02 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-105) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 2:02 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 9:22 PM | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 11 10:23 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -125 · Green Bay Packers +105 |
| Sep 12 7:30 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · Green Bay Packers +110 |
| Sep 13 10:14 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · Green Bay Packers +110 |
| Sep 13 10:36 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 45.5 (-115) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · Green Bay Packers +110 |
| Sep 13 10:56 AM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 46 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · Green Bay Packers +110 |
| Sep 13 12:27 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -130 · Green Bay Packers +110 |
| CLOSESep 13 3:56 PM | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 (-110) | 45.5 (-110) | Minnesota Vikings -140 · Green Bay Packers +115 |
The read
Sunday afternoon at U.S. Bank Stadium brings a divisional opener with a new face at quarterback for Minnesota. Kyler Murray makes his Vikings debut, while Jordan Love enters an immediate test against Brian Flores’ pressure packages and the home crowd.
I like Green Bay’s ability to keep its offense functioning through that test. Love finished last season with 23 touchdowns against 6 interceptions, and the Packers converted 48.8% of their third downs. Those are historical results, but the connection to this matchup is tangible: Love returns with responsibility for protection adjustments, and his receivers have experience making the coverage reads those adjustments require. My expectation is that Green Bay can sustain possessions even when Minnesota disrupts its initial plan.
The availability of Christian Watson, Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft together is the deciding factor for me. The September 9 Packers reporting established that they did not share a single snap last season. Their reunion gives Love experienced answers across the passing game against a defense that disguises coverage until the snap. That does not guarantee explosive plays, but it strengthens the communication and receiving options Green Bay needs to handle this particular opponent. The Packers’ reported backfield committee still has to contribute; I am backing the passing group to carry the central responsibility.
Minnesota’s defense is the strongest obstacle. It allowed -0.10 EPA per play last season, and Flores still has Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson executing his pressure designs. Repeated protection mistakes could undermine Green Bay’s entire approach. Minnesota also has a credible offensive path: the September 10 reporting describes a healthier offensive line and an emphasis on coordinated wide-zone blocking. If that produces manageable downs for Murray, his opportunities with Justin Jefferson become harder to contain.
I give Green Bay’s improved receiving availability and Love’s protection command enough weight to back the Packers through four quarters. They have a supported route to sustaining drives and answering Minnesota late. The Vikings’ defensive strength keeps me on the spread rather than the outright-win ticket: I want Green Bay with the points.
Injuries noted
Green Bay Packers: Luke Musgrave (PUP-R) — Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that he's "really hopeful" Musgrave (neck) will be able to play at some point during the 2026 season, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports.; Micah Parsons (PUP-R) — Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst said Tuesday that Parsons (knee) could return from the PUP list when first eligible in Week 5, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports. "We have a pretty good idea once we get out of that four-game window we're going to be pretty close," Gutekunst said.; Jordon Riley (PUP-R) — out; Johnathan Baldwin II (IR) — ir; Marlon Jones (IR) — Undisclosed; Warren Brinson (Out) — Brinson (calf) has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Trey Dean III (IR) — Dean (undisclosed) reverted to the Packers' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Collin Oliver (IR-R) — Oliver is dealing with Achilles and calf injuries. and is considered week-to-week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Savion Williams (IR-R) — ir; Thomas Yassmin (IR) — Green Bay reverted Yassmin (undisclosed) to injured reserve Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Zach Bako-Bewele (Questionable) — Bako-Bewele (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Aaron Banks (Questionable) — Banks (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Ty'Ron Hopper (Questionable) — questionable
Minnesota Vikings: Jamal Adams (IR) — ir; Tyler Batty (IR) — The Vikings placed Batty (knee) on injured reserve Sunday, Tom Pelissero of Netflix reports.; Tyreek Chappell (IR) — Undisclosed; Jeshaun Jones (Reserve-Sus) — The NFL suspended Jones three games Tuesday for violating the league's substance-abuse policy, Mike Garafolo of NFL Network reports.; Michael Jurgens (IR-R) — The Vikings placed Jurgens (undisclosed) on injured reserve with a designation to return Sunday, Rob Kleifield of the team's official site reports.; Taki Taimani (IR) — Undisclosed; Ben Yurosek (IR) — Minnesota placed Yurosek on injured reserve Tuesday due to an undisclosed injury.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Kyler Murray starts at quarterback for MIN
5.97 Y/AKyler Murray has completed 68.3% of his passes but averaged 5.97 yards per attempt over 5 games, with 962 passing yards and a 6-3 TD-INT line. No GB defensive facts are supplied to characterize the test in GB @ MIN.
GB averages +1.75 yards every time it drops back (2025 season)
1.75 Y/AGB is at 6.85 yards per pass attempt over 17 games; MIN is at 5.1 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
GB's passing game is +46.1 yards per game (2025 season)
46.1 YPGGB is at 212.8 team passing yards per game over 17 games; MIN is at 166.7 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
Jordan Love starts at quarterback for GB
7.7 Y/ALove's 2025 season line: 3381 passing yards, 66.3% completions, 7.7 yards per attempt, 23-6 TD-INT over 15 games.
PASS RUSH
GB's offense takes 1.93 fewer sacks per game (2025 season)
1.93 SACKSGB took 1.93 fewer sacks per game in the 2025 regular season, averaging 2.07 over 17 games versus MIN’s 4 over 17. That gives GB the lower sack-taken profile, but neither club has a 2026 final yet.
GB's pocket leaks 8.6 fewer yards per game (2025 season)
8.6 YDSGB is at 16.3 sack yards lost per game over 17 games; MIN is at 24.9 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PACE & SCRIPT
GB @ MIN carries a 64.5 market total
64.5GB-MIN’s 64.5 total stands 17 points above the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals, setting a distinctly high scoring expectation for this slate. That expectation cracks if scoring comes in much more muted than the market total suggests.
TURNOVERS
GB commits 1 fewer turnovers per game (2025 season)
1 TOGB is at 0.76 turnovers committed per game over 17 games; MIN is at 1.76 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
GB throws 0.82 fewer picks per game (2025 season)
0.82 INTGB is at 0.41 interceptions thrown per game over 17 games; MIN is at 1.24 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
GB owns a +0.79 yards-per-play gap (2025 season)
0.79 Y/PGB is at 5.61 yards per play over 17 games; MIN is at 4.82 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
MISMATCH
GB's protection against a MIN front — MIN takes 4 sacks a game to GB's 2.07 (2025 season)
2.07 VS 4Green Bay took 2.07 sacks per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season, while Minnesota took 4 over 17. That protection gap does not show how Minnesota’s front attacks Green Bay or what either side must change.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
GB and MIN are even since 2025
1-1 SERIESGB and MIN are 1-1 across the last two seasons, with each team winning at home. GB won 23-6 on Nov. 23, 2025, before MIN won 16-3 on Jan. 4, 2026.
REPLACEMENT
Kyler Murray (QB) is out for MIN
OUTKyler Murray was ruled out of Minnesota’s Sep. 13 game against Green Bay with a concussion. The confirmed absence is on offense, but the report does not identify who takes the quarterback work.
J.J. McCarthy (QB) is inactive for MIN
INACTIVEMcCarthy (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the Vikings' emergency third quarterback against the Packers on Sunday, Craig Peters of the Vikings' official site reports. Reported Sep 13.
Josh Whyle (TE) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEWhyle (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Vikings. Reported Sep 13.
Zach Bako-Bewele (OT) is questionable for GB
QUESTIONABLEBako-Bewele (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday's game against the Vikings, Wes Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports. Reported Sep 12.
PRACTICE REPORT
Warren Brinson
OutCalf · Did not practice · Out
Aaron Banks
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Zach Bako-Bewele
QuestionableKnee · Limited practice · Questionable
Ty'Ron Hopper
QuestionableAchilles · Limited practice · Questionable
Christian Darrisaw
DNPDid not practice
Javon Hargrave
LPLimited practice
Devonte Wyatt
LPLimited practice
Harrison Smith
LPLimited practice
Barryn Sorrell
LPLimited practice
SITUATIONAL
GB's third-down conversion rate is 17 percentage points higher (2025 season)
17 PPGB’s third-down conversion rate was 17 percentage points higher in the 2025 regular season, 48.8% over 17 games versus MIN’s 31.8% over 17. That marks a clear difference in extending drives on third down, but neither club has a 2026 final yet.
AFTER GARY
GB +1.5 → +1.5
NO MOVEFANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKJAUAN JENNINGSRECEIVING YARDS OVER 21.5
Jennings is the type of secondary target who benefits when Green Bay tilts coverage toward Justin Jefferson. He brings size and toughness over the middle, and Minnesota's quick-game and play-action approach should create manageable opportunities for him. This number is modest for a player who has produced at least 35 yards in each of his last 10 games.
- GARY'S PICKAARON JONES SR.RUSHING ATTEMPTS OVER 8.5
Minnesota has two capable backs, but Jones remains the steadier early-down option and the more trusted player in a new offense. The Vikings want to lean on the run, use misdirection and keep Kyler Murray out of obvious passing situations. Jones has cleared this workload in eight of his last 10, and a competitive divisional opener should give him enough possessions to get there.
- THE LONG SHOTCHRISTIAN WATSONANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Watson gives Green Bay the best chance to punish Minnesota when Brian Flores brings pressure and leaves space behind it. His speed changes the geometry of the defense, and having him back alongside Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft makes it harder to concentrate coverage in one place. At this price, his big-play and red-zone role are worth backing.
- THE LONG SHOTAARON JONES SR.ANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
Jones is still a natural finisher in this offense, especially near the goal line and on misdirection plays built around Murray's mobility. Minnesota should use its backs heavily in the red zone, and Jones' familiarity with Green Bay adds a little extra edge to a matchup where the Vikings will want to establish physical control. The price is fair for his likely scoring opportunities.
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