Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
O/U 40.5 · SPREAD Los Angeles Chargers -12.5 · SoFi Stadium
The pick & result
- Published pick
- Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 -115
- Published odds
- -115
- Result
- Lost
- Final score
- 26-14
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The line
FANATICS · 28 moves| Market | Opened Sep 9 10:49 AM | Close Sep 13 3:26 PM | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | −½ |
| TOTAL | 47.5 (-105) | 47 (-110) | −½ |
| MONEYLINE | Los Angeles Chargers -500 | Los Angeles Chargers -500 | Holds |
Every move, in order ›
| When | Spread | Total | Moneyline |
|---|---|---|---|
| OPENSep 9 10:49 AM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 3:14 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 3:44 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 4:15 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 4:45 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 4:53 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 5:20 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 5:56 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 6:06 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 6:26 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 6:57 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 7:47 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 9 7:57 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 10 10:01 AM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 10 12:02 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 10 2:33 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 10 3:03 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 11 12:02 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 11 1:02 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 11 3:02 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 11 8:21 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 11 9:22 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 11 11:23 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 12 12:23 AM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 12 8:30 AM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 13 11:16 AM | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 13 12:27 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47.5 (-105) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| Sep 13 3:06 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -9 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
| CLOSESep 13 3:26 PM | Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (-110) | 47 (-110) | Los Angeles Chargers -500 · Arizona Cardinals +370 |
The read
SoFi hosts an opener with new offensive direction on both sidelines. Mike McDaniel begins calling regular-season games for Los Angeles, while Mike LaFleur opens his tenure in Arizona.
The defensive matchup carries the most weight for me. In last season’s early-down samples, the Chargers allowed a 41.5% success rate, compared with Arizona’s 49.0%. Those are historical results under different coaching circumstances, but they identify the matchup I’m backing: Herbert getting more opportunities to sustain possessions, while Brissett faces more resistance before reaching third down. Building that advantage repeatedly is how Los Angeles can create the separation this spread demands.
The scoring-area evidence supports that path. Los Angeles allowed a 35.9% success rate on red-zone plays last season; Arizona allowed 44.4%. Those are play-level success rates, not touchdown percentages, but they strengthen the case for the Chargers making Arizona work harder to finish possessions. Both secondaries have fresh absences—Arizona at cornerback and safety, Los Angeles at cornerback—so neither passing attack gets a clean bill of defensive opposition. McConkey and Johnston give Herbert established receiving options against Arizona’s affected secondary.
Arizona’s strongest answer is an offense that was much closer to Los Angeles than their records suggest. Its prior-season offensive EPA per play was -0.02 against the Chargers’ -0.04, and McBride’s 126 receptions give Brissett an established target. Arizona can protect the cushion by sustaining drives and continuing to answer scores into the fourth quarter. I take that possibility seriously; the Cardinals do not need an outright upset for their spread ticket to cash.
The biggest threat to my bet is Los Angeles’ protection. Herbert absorbed 54 sacks last season, and Jake Slaughter now makes his first NFL start at center. McDaniel’s quicker-release emphasis still has to translate into regular-season execution. I nevertheless give the Chargers’ defensive advantages across early downs and scoring situations more weight than the similarity between last year’s offenses. My expectation is that Los Angeles produces enough stops to build and preserve separation across the game, with Herbert taking advantage of the more favorable opposing defensive baseline.
Injuries noted
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (IR-R) — The Cardinals are placing Conner (foot) on injured reserve with a designation to return, John Gambadoro of Arizona Sports 98.7 FM Phoenix reports.; Tip Reiman (PUP-R) — The Cardinals moved Reiman (ankle) from the active/PUP list to the reserve/PUP list Sunday, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Joey Blount (IR) — Neck; Zachary Carter (IR-R) — The Cardinals placed Carter (knee) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Darren Urban of the team's official site reports.; Kaleb Proctor (IR) — ir; Chase Bisontis (IR) — ir; Jeremiyah Love (Questionable) — Love (ankle) remains listed as questionable but is expected to play in Sunday's game at the Chargers, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Trey Benson (IR) — Benson (knee) reverted to the Cardinals' injured reserve list Tuesday, David Furones of the South Florida Sun Sentinel reports.; Jameson Geers (IR) — Undisclosed; Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (Out) — Taylor-Demerson (ribs) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.; Isaiah Adams (Out) — Adams (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.; Garrett Williams (Out) — Williams (Achilles) is listed as out for Sunday's game against the Chargers.
Los Angeles Chargers: Isaiah World (NFI-R) — nfi-r; Tyler Biadasz (IR) — The Chargers placed Biadasz (knee) on injured reserve Sunday.; Scott Matlock (IR-R) — Matlock (undisclosed) was placed on injured reserve by the Chargers on Sunday with a designation to return.; Denzel Perryman (IR) — ir; Branson Taylor (IR-R) — The Chargers placed Taylor (undisclosed) on injured reserve Sunday with a designation to return, Ian Rapoport of ESPN and NFL Network reports.; Deane Leonard (Out) — Leonard has been ruled out ahead of Sunday's game against the Cardinals due to an abdominal injury.; Tuli Tuipulotu (Questionable) — Tuipulotu (hip) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Cardinals.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
Justin Herbert starts at quarterback for LAC
7.28 Y/AHerbert's 2025 season line: 3727 passing yards, 66.4% completions, 7.28 yards per attempt, 26-13 TD-INT over 16 games.
Jacoby Brissett starts at quarterback for ARI
6.94 Y/ABrissett's 2025 season line: 3366 passing yards, 64.9% completions, 6.94 yards per attempt, 23-8 TD-INT over 14 games.
ARI's passing game is +20.4 yards per game (2025 season)
20.4 YPGARI is at 232.6 team passing yards per game over 17 games; LAC is at 212.2 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
TRENCHES
LAC is +28.5 rush yards per game (2025 season)
28.5 YPGARI is at 93.1 rushing yards per game over 17 games; LAC is at 121.6 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
PACE & SCRIPT
LAC's defense gives up 8.7 fewer points per game (2025 season)
8.7 PPGARI is at 28.7 points allowed per game over 17 games; LAC is at 20 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
ARI @ LAC carries a 40.5 market total
40.5The current fanduel total is 40.5, 7 points below the 47.5 median across 13 games with posted totals on this slate.
LAC holds the ball 2:57 longer per game (2025 season)
2:57 TOPARI is at 29:48 time of possession per game over 17 games; LAC is at 32:45 over 17 games. Those are 2025 regular-season team-game results; the 2026 season has no finals for these clubs yet.
MISMATCH
LAC's defense against ARI's — LAC allows 20 a game, ARI 28.7 (2025 season)
20 VS 28.7The Chargers allowed 20 points per game over 17 games in the 2025 regular season; Arizona allowed 28.7 over 17. Those defensive averages show a separation in points allowed, but not how the Chargers’ defense matches Arizona’s offense.
REPLACEMENT
Jeremiyah Love (RB) is questionable for ARI
QUESTIONABLELove (ankle) remains listed as questionable but is expected to play in Sunday's game at the Chargers, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. Reported Sep 13.
Carson Beck (QB) is inactive for ARI
INACTIVEBeck (coach's decision) is inactive as the emergency third quarterback for Sunday's game against the Chargers. Reported Sep 13.
Ladd McConkey (WR) is questionable for LAC
QUESTIONABLEMcConkey played three snaps on offense and didn't show up in the box score otherwise during the Chargers' 20-18 preseason loss to the Rams on Thursday. Reported Aug 28.
Elijah Molden (CB) is questionable for LAC
QUESTIONABLEMolden (hamstring) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Cardinals. Reported Sep 13.
PRACTICE REPORT
Garrett Williams
OutAchilles · Limited practice · Out
Dadrion Taylor-Demerson
OutRibs · Did not practice · Out
Isaiah Adams
OutKnee · Did not practice · Out
Deane Leonard
OutAbdomen · Did not practice · Out
Tuli Tuipulotu
QuestionableHip · Limited practice · Questionable
Jeremiyah Love
QuestionableAnkle · Limited practice · Questionable
AFTER GARY
LAC -8.5 → -9.5
GARY +1FANDUEL · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored September 9, 2026 at 4:25 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: draftkings, fanduel, fanatics, caesars, betrivers, betmgm.
- Accountability
- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
Props on this game
4- GARY'S PICKTREY MCBRIDERECEPTIONS OVER 5.5
Trey McBride is the centerpiece of this offense, and Arizona should need steady completions against a Chargers team favored by more than a touchdown. His volume is too reliable to ignore, especially with James Conner unavailable and McBride coming off a 126-catch season. Six receptions is a modest ask for the player Jacoby Brissett is most likely to trust when the pocket gets crowded.
- GARY'S PICKMICHAEL WILSONRECEPTIONS OVER 3.5
Michael Wilson enters this matchup as a legitimate secondary volume option, not a desperation target. He averaged nearly ten targets per game in the recent sample and cleared four receptions in seven of his last ten. Arizona may spend much of the afternoon throwing from behind, giving Wilson enough opportunity to get past this number even if Los Angeles limits the explosive plays.
- THE LONG SHOTOMARION HAMPTONANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
The Chargers are expected to lean into the running game under Mike McDaniel, and Omarion Hampton is the lead back with the best combination of workload and goal-line access. Arizona's defense struggled badly last season, while Los Angeles has spent the offseason building a more efficient offense around Justin Herbert. Hampton does not need a huge rushing performance to find the end zone if the Chargers convert their scoring chances near the goal line.
- THE LONG SHOTTREY MCBRIDEANYTIME TD OVER 0.5
McBride's role gives him multiple paths to the end zone: red-zone targets, option routes underneath, and yards after the catch. Arizona's offense should be designed around creating touches for its best player, and +200 is a worthwhile price for a tight end who scored 11 times last season. I like the value more than the safer reception market at this number.
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