New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

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The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

• GARY'S PICK

  RHAMONDRE STEVENSONRUSHING YARDS OVER 57.5

  NFLNew England Patriots· -113

  LOST · ACTUAL 51

  GARY'S TAKE

  TreVeyon Henderson being out tonight isn't a footnote, it's a complete change to how this backfield operates. Henderson actually out-rushed Stevenson last season, and every one of those carries needs a new home. Behind Stevenson right now is a traded-for back who's never taken a preseason snap for this team and a running back just pulled off the practice squad this week. That's not a committee anymore, that's a bell cow. Stevenson's own per-game numbers a year ago were held down by exactly this kind of split, and he still put up 131 and 88-yard games when the volume tilted his way. Vrabel is going to want to protect Drake Maye and control the clock against a defense that got to him six times in the Super Bowl, and the way to do that is to feed the back who's earned the trust. This line has moved up from where his committee rate used to live, but it still hasn't caught up to what a true workhorse workload looks like in his first start of the season.

  ×

  Rhamondre Stevenson
  Rushing Yards over 57.5

  -113 · LOST · ACTUAL 51

  New England Patriots

  Read Gary’s Take

  TreVeyon Henderson being out tonight isn't a footnote, it's a complete change to how this backfield operates. Henderson actually out-rushed Stevenson last season, and every one of those carries needs a new home. Behind Stevenson right now is a traded-for back who's never taken a preseason snap for this team and a running back just pulled off the practice squad this week. That's not a committee anymore, that's a bell cow.

  Stevenson's own per-game numbers a year ago were held down by exactly this kind of split, and he still put up 131 and 88-yard games when the volume tilted his way. Vrabel is going to want to protect Drake Maye and control the clock against a defense that got to him six times in the Super Bowl, and the way to do that is to feed the back who's earned the trust. This line has moved up from where his committee rate used to live, but it still hasn't caught up to what a true workhorse workload looks like in his first start of the season.

• GARY'S PICK

  JAXON SMITH-NJIGBARECEIVING YARDS OVER 81.5

  NFLSeattle Seahawks· -113

  ✓ CASHED · ACTUAL 122

  GARY'S TAKE

  Smith-Njigba isn't just Seattle's leading target, he's the offense's entire identity. A target share that high doesn't happen by accident, and nothing about this offseason suggests Seattle wants to spread it out more. He cleared this kind of number in eight of his last ten games, and his season average sits well north of it. Add in a backfield that's still sorting out its pecking order without a proven lead back, and every incentive points toward leaning on the passing game early and often tonight. Christian Gonzalez is a real problem for anyone lining up across from him, and he'll have his moments. But defenses have been building entire game plans around Smith-Njigba for a year now and he still piles up the yardage regardless, because the rest of the offense is built to punish teams for the attention. This is a get-right spot for a championship offense opening its season at home, and the easiest completion in the building all night is the one that goes to their best player.

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  Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  Receiving Yards over 81.5

  -113 · CASHED · ACTUAL 122

  Seattle Seahawks

  Read Gary’s Take

  Smith-Njigba isn't just Seattle's leading target, he's the offense's entire identity. A target share that high doesn't happen by accident, and nothing about this offseason suggests Seattle wants to spread it out more. He cleared this kind of number in eight of his last ten games, and his season average sits well north of it. Add in a backfield that's still sorting out its pecking order without a proven lead back, and every incentive points toward leaning on the passing game early and often tonight.

  Christian Gonzalez is a real problem for anyone lining up across from him, and he'll have his moments. But defenses have been building entire game plans around Smith-Njigba for a year now and he still piles up the yardage regardless, because the rest of the offense is built to punish teams for the attention. This is a get-right spot for a championship offense opening its season at home, and the easiest completion in the building all night is the one that goes to their best player.

• THE LONG SHOT

  A.J. BROWNANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLNew England Patriots· +175

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Brown is the biggest name either roster added since the Super Bowl, and New England didn't trade for him to run checkdowns. He's the outside receiver this offense is built around now, the one Maye wants finding room early to set the tone in his first night wearing this uniform, and he found the end zone seven times last year in Philadelphia without this kind of investment behind him. With Henderson out of the backfield, I like this offense to lean on the passing game in scoring range instead of forcing a green run group to finish drives, and nobody on this roster is better positioned to cash those looks in than Brown. Seattle's secondary is legitimately good, but holding a receiver in check for four quarters and keeping him off the scoreboard for one play are two different jobs. Brown is the kind of receiver who draws safety help by design, and that tends to open up single coverage somewhere close to the goal line. Plus money on a true number-one receiver in his debut with a brand-new offense built to get him the ball is a number I want on the board.

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  A.J. Brown
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  +175 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  New England Patriots

  Read Gary’s Take

  Brown is the biggest name either roster added since the Super Bowl, and New England didn't trade for him to run checkdowns. He's the outside receiver this offense is built around now, the one Maye wants finding room early to set the tone in his first night wearing this uniform, and he found the end zone seven times last year in Philadelphia without this kind of investment behind him. With Henderson out of the backfield, I like this offense to lean on the passing game in scoring range instead of forcing a green run group to finish drives, and nobody on this roster is better positioned to cash those looks in than Brown.

  Seattle's secondary is legitimately good, but holding a receiver in check for four quarters and keeping him off the scoreboard for one play are two different jobs. Brown is the kind of receiver who draws safety help by design, and that tends to open up single coverage somewhere close to the goal line. Plus money on a true number-one receiver in his debut with a brand-new offense built to get him the ball is a number I want on the board.

• THE LONG SHOT

  AJ BARNERANYTIME TD OVER 0.5

  NFLSeattle Seahawks· +300

  LOST · ACTUAL 0

  GARY'S TAKE

  Barner scored six touchdowns on just 52 catches a year ago, and that ratio tells you exactly what he's asked to do in this offense — finish drives, not rack up volume. Seattle's passing game is going to funnel the bulk of its targets to Smith-Njigba tonight, and every defense in the building knows it. That kind of attention doesn't take a tight end out of the game plan near the goal line, it creates him as the answer underneath when coverage rolls toward the perimeter. This is also a Seattle offense easing in a new-look backfield, with Charbonnet still working back from a torn ACL and no clear lead runner named. When the ground game is this unsettled, red-zone play calls tend to lean on what's already proven, and Barner scoring in tight spaces is proven. Plus 300 on a player with that kind of touchdown rate, in a game his team is favored to control, is a shot worth taking.

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  AJ Barner
  Anytime TD over 0.5

  +300 · LOST · ACTUAL 0

  Seattle Seahawks

  Read Gary’s Take

  Barner scored six touchdowns on just 52 catches a year ago, and that ratio tells you exactly what he's asked to do in this offense — finish drives, not rack up volume. Seattle's passing game is going to funnel the bulk of its targets to Smith-Njigba tonight, and every defense in the building knows it. That kind of attention doesn't take a tight end out of the game plan near the goal line, it creates him as the answer underneath when coverage rolls toward the perimeter.

  This is also a Seattle offense easing in a new-look backfield, with Charbonnet still working back from a torn ACL and no clear lead runner named. When the ground game is this unsettled, red-zone play calls tend to lean on what's already proven, and Barner scoring in tight spaces is proven. Plus 300 on a player with that kind of touchdown rate, in a game his team is favored to control, is a shot worth taking.