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NFL · Sat, Aug 29 · 1:00 PM

Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

O/U 36.5 · SPREAD Indianapolis Colts -3.5 · Lucas Oil Stadium

GARY'S PICK
Lions +3.5
NFL@ Colts· -104

Lions
+3.5

-104 · 1:00 PM ET

Colts

The pick & result

Published pick
Detroit Lions +3.5 -104
Published odds
-104
Result
Awaiting grade
Final score
Not available

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Lucas Oil Stadium is hosting a preseason finale, and most of this ticket will be decided after Indianapolis’ brief starter phase. The Colts plan to use many starters for only 8–12 snaps, while Detroit is resting its starters throughout.

That limited early edge is not enough for me to lay more than a field goal. Daniel Jones and Jonathan Taylor are being held out, and Indianapolis’ reserve-heavy performance against Atlanta ended in a 34–6 loss with a 461–164 yardage deficit. Detroit’s reserves most recently outgained Washington 267–243 in a 17–13 win. Those are small samples, but they directly involve the personnel expected to decide most of this game.

Joshua Dobbs’ interception and fumble against Washington remain Detroit’s clearest risk. Even so, the Lions overcame those mistakes, and their verified reserve-phase performance gives them the stronger four-quarter case. Indianapolis’ best personnel advantage is brief, while +3.5 also protects against a three-point Colts win. The evidence supports taking the points rather than requiring Detroit to win outright.

Injuries noted

Detroit Lions: Sione Vaki (Questionable) — Vaki suffered a broken nose in Monday's practice, Justin Rogers of DetroitFootball.net reports.; Giovanni Manu (NFI-A) — Knee; Brian Branch (PUP-P) — Head coach Brian Campbell told reporters Tuesday that Branch (Achilles) is coming along in his rehab and could return to practice in late August or early September, Colton Pouncy of The Athletic reports.; Kerby Joseph (PUP-P) — Head coach Dan Campbell told reporters Tuesday that Joseph (knee/personal) could be back on the field with the Lions early on in the upcoming regular season, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Aidan Keanaaina (IR) — The Lions placed Keanaaina (undisclosed) on injured reserve Monday.; Kendrick Law (IR) — Knee - ACL; Cade Mays (Out) — Mays will miss a significant portion of the 2026 season with a fractured wrist, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Derrick Moore (Questionable) — Groin; Isiah Pacheco (Questionable) — Pacheco is dealing with a sprained MCL, but head coach Dan Campbell believes he will be ready for Detroit's season opener against New Orleans, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports.; D.J. Reed (Questionable) — Reed is dealing with a minor groin issue, Justin Rogers of DetroitFootball.net reports.; Malcolm Rodriguez (Questionable) — Ankle; Jimmy Rolder (Questionable) — Hamstring; Payton Turner (Questionable) — Turner (back) is considered day-to-day, Justin Rogers of DetroitFootball.net reports.; Mekhi Wingo (Questionable) — Wingo sustained a head injury in Thursday night's preseason opener against the Bengals, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports.; Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (Questionable) — Rakestraw (upper body) is dealing with a bruise after Thursday's 16-14 preseason loss to the Bengals, Tim Twentyman of the Lions' official site reports.

Indianapolis Colts: Alec Pierce (PUP-P) — Pierce (ankle) was present for Tuesday's practice and took part in individual work off to the side under the supervision of a trainer, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Sauce Gardner (Questionable) — Gardner (calf) missed practice Tuesday due to an illness, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Cameron Mitchell (IR) — Mitchell (undisclosed) reverted to the Colts' reserve/injured list Tuesday after clearing waivers, per the NFL's transaction log.; CJ Allen (Questionable) — Allen was unavailable for the Colts' practice Thursday due to a hamstring injury, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Josh Downs (Questionable) — Downs (groin) is back at practice Tuesday, Joel A. Erickson of The Indianapolis Star reports.; DJ Giddens (Questionable) — Giddens did not participate in Sunday's training camp practice due to a hamstring injury, Kevin Bowen of 107.5 The Fan reports.; Sean McKeon (IR) — The Colts placed McKeon (undisclosed) on injured reserve Thursday.; Cam Taylor-Britt (Reserve-Sus) — The NFL suspended Taylor-Britt on Friday for one game due to violating the league's personal conduct policy, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.; Charvarius Ward (Questionable) — Colts general manager Chris Ballard told reporters Tuesday that Ward (back) does not have a timeline for return, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

  • Jared Goff starts at quarterback for DET

    7.9 Y/A

    Goff wins by pairing real arm volume with sharp efficiency, while keeping the bad throws under control. On the road, the test is whether that clean, aggressive style can set the pace instead of letting Indianapolis dictate it.

  • Daniel Jones starts at quarterback for IND

    8.08 Y/A

    Jones wins through efficiency more than sheer volume, but his touchdown-to-interception balance leaves less room for mistakes than Goff’s. Tonight tests whether he can stay efficient while matching a Detroit offense led by a quarterback who creates more scores without adding more interceptions.

  • IND's passing game is +23 yards per game

    23 YPG

    DET is at 127.5 team passing yards per game over 2 games; IND is at 150.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

TRENCHES

  • DET is +40 rush yards per game

    40 YPG

    DET is at 149 rushing yards per game over 2 games; IND is at 109 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

PASS RUSH

  • IND's pocket leaks 24 fewer yards per game

    24 YDS

    A line that isn't losing ground like that is buying its quarterback time to run the offense as scripted, while Detroit's protection issues are turning clean dropbacks into negative plays and busted rhythm. That kind of pressure is exactly what undercuts the third-and-fourth-down success Detroit has otherwise shown, since drives don't survive if the pocket folds before routes develop. Sack yardage this early in August also tracks who's protecting with a patchwork front five versus a settled one, so the split is as much about current roster construction as either line's real ceiling.

  • IND's offense takes 2 fewer sacks per game

    2 SACKS

    This is the same protection story showing up as a rate instead of raw yardage — Indianapolis is keeping their quarterback clean possession after possession, which lets the passing game work in rhythm even if it hasn't cashed in on third down yet. Detroit taking sacks at a noticeably higher rate means the pass rush they see tonight doesn't need anything exotic to get home, four guys winning their matchups will do it. Sack totals swing hard on a two-game sample depending on which linemen are even suiting up, so this gap says more about who's currently on the roster than either team's real front five.

  • DET's rush gets home 0.5 more times per game

    0.5 SACKS

    DET is at 2 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; IND is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-28.

PACE & SCRIPT

  • DET's defense gives up 9 fewer points per game

    9 PPG

    DET is at 14.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; IND is at 23.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

  • DET holds the ball 5:01 longer per game

    5:01 TOP

    DET is at 29:37 time of possession per game over 2 games; IND is at 24:36 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

  • DET is scoring +6 points per game

    6 PPG

    DET is at 15.5 points per game over 2 games; IND is at 9.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

  • DET runs +7.5 more plays per game

    7.5 PLAYS

    DET is at 61.5 offensive plays per game over 2 games; IND is at 54 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

TURNOVERS

  • DET's defense takes the ball away 1 more time per game

    1 TO

    Going without a takeaway through two games fits everything else IND's defense has shown — a unit getting run on and thrown on that consistently usually isn't disrupting anything up front, and disruption is normally where turnovers come from. DET's takeaway rate isn't eye-popping on its own, but paired with the yardage numbers they're already posting, it points to a defense finishing snaps instead of just absorbing them. A shutout on takeaways across a full two-game preseason sample is the rarer outcome of the two, and it tracks with a defense that hasn't forced much of anything yet.

  • IND commits 0.5 fewer turnovers per game

    0.5 TO

    DET is at 2.5 turnovers committed per game over 2 games; IND is at 2 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

  • IND throws 0.5 fewer picks per game

    0.5 INT

    DET is at 1.5 interceptions thrown per game over 2 games; IND is at 1 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

RED ZONE

  • DET scores on +8.3% more of its red-zone trips

    8.3%

    DET is at 33.3% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; IND is at 25% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

COACHING

  • DET's staff goes for it 1 more time per game on fourth down

    1 GOES

    DET is at 1.5 fourth-down attempts per game over 2 games; IND is at 0.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-28.

MISMATCH

  • DET on the money downs — 46.4% on third down to IND's 10.5%

    46.4 VS 10.5

    DET's offense is built to stay on schedule and keep the chains moving, which means IND's defense never gets off the field on its own terms. IND has to make its living on early downs, winning first and second decisively enough that third down barely matters, because whenever this game does reach that spot it turns ugly fast. If IND can't manufacture stops before third down arrives, DET turns this into a possession clinic and runs the clock all night.

COVERAGE

  • DET's secondary gives up 61 fewer passing yards per game

    61 YPG

    That number for IND belongs to the same secondary that's already getting run on and beaten in the red zone, so this isn't a defense trading pass coverage for run support — they're getting attacked in every phase at once. DET holding under 185 through the air even with backups logging heavy snaps points to a coverage scheme that travels regardless of who's out there, since discipline in zones and leverage is one of the harder things to fake. Stacked against the rushing and red-zone splits between these two units, IND's pass defense looks less like an odd number and more like confirmation of what the whole defense is right now.

  • DET's defense surrenders 0.8 fewer yards a snap

    0.8 Y/P

    This one's basically the summary of everything else IND's defense has shown — the extra rushing yards, the extra passing yards, and the red-zone leaks all land in that per-snap number, so it's not a new red flag, it's the sum of the ones already on the board. DET being nearly a full yard better per play means the edge isn't sitting in one category an offense could scheme around; it's spread across run downs and pass downs alike. Eight-tenths of a yard on every snap across two games is too wide a gap to chalk up to sequencing, especially with the run, pass, and red-zone numbers all pointing the same direction.

REPLACEMENT

  • Cade Mays (C) is out for DET

    OUT

    Detroit has to hand the protection calls and interior blocking work to its backup center, which puts extra strain on the offensive line against Indianapolis. OUT is final this close to kickoff, so the Lions’ offense has already moved on without him.

  • Josh Downs (WR) is questionable for IND

    QUESTIONABLE

    Downs returning to practice gives Indianapolis a path to using him, but QUESTIONABLE still leaves his final workload unsettled this close to kickoff. If he sits or is limited, the other receivers absorb his routes and targets, putting the effect squarely on the Colts’ passing offense.

  • Isiah Pacheco (RB) is questionable for DET

    QUESTIONABLE

    If Pacheco sits, Detroit has to divide his carries and pass-protection work among the other backs. QUESTIONABLE keeps him short of a firm clearance tonight, and the MCL issue matters most to the Lions’ offense because it can change both the workload split and protection choices.

  • Sione Vaki (RB) is questionable for DET

    QUESTIONABLE

    If Vaki sits, Detroit’s other backs absorb his offensive and special-teams work. QUESTIONABLE keeps him in the game-day decision window, with the broken nose making his availability more important than any expected change to the Lions’ blocking or passing plan.

SITUATIONAL

  • DET converts fourth downs at a +66.7% clip

    66.7%

    Going for it and converting tells you Detroit's staff trusts the offense in the tightest windows and isn't leaving points on the table by punting from makeable range. Indianapolis coming up empty in that same spot pairs badly with a defense that then has to answer for a short field on the other end. Fourth-down tries are rare enough in August that this is really a handful of plays deciding the whole read, more a story about who called it than who's actually built for that moment.

  • DET converts third downs at a +35.9% clip

    35.9%

    Detroit's offense is staying on schedule and turning first downs into more first downs, while Indianapolis is going backwards toward third-and-long before a drive even develops. That kind of gap snowballs over four quarters — extra plays, extra scoring chances, and a defense across the field that barely leaves the sideline. Two games into August with personnel still rotating, a chain-moving split like this is as much about which units were on the field for those series as it is about real scheme identity.

  • DET (1-1) at IND (0-1-1)

    -30 PT GAP

    Detroit's the team with actual momentum here — a winning record, a positive point differential, and a win last time out, while Indy's slide continues behind a minus-28 differential that's about as lopsided as preseason numbers get. The home/road splits temper that some, since neither club has actually won in the role it plays tonight, Detroit on the road and Indy at home. But when the point gap runs this wide, a winless road mark for the better team matters a lot less than a home record that comes attached to a team already getting outscored by four touchdowns on the year.

FANTASY USAGE

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown: 12.8 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline

    12.8 TGT/G

    Amon-Ra St. Brown averaged 12.8 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Amon-Ra St. Brown is currently active for DET; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. DET faces IND next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.

  • Jonathan Taylor: 22.4 opp/g in the 2025 baseline

    22.4 OPP/G

    Jonathan Taylor averaged 22.4 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Jonathan Taylor is currently active for IND; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. IND faces DET next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.

  • Jahmyr Gibbs: 20.6 opp/g in the 2025 baseline

    20.6 OPP/G

    Jahmyr Gibbs averaged 20.6 carries plus targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Jahmyr Gibbs is currently active for DET; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. DET faces IND next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.

  • Keenan Allen: 6.2 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline

    6.2 TGT/G

    Keenan Allen averaged 6.2 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Keenan Allen is currently active for IND; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. IND faces DET next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.

FANTASY MATCHUP

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown's team carries a 25.5 implied total

    25.5 IMPLIED

    fanduel puts DET versus IND in one of this slate's stronger scoring environments. That is market context for a player who cleared the usage gate in the labeled 2025 baseline, not a coverage grade or projection.

  • Jahmyr Gibbs's team carries a 25.5 implied total

    25.5 IMPLIED

    fanduel puts DET versus IND in one of this slate's stronger scoring environments. That is market context for a player who cleared the usage gate in the labeled 2025 baseline, not a coverage grade or projection.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it
Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data
Daily picks first stored August 27, 2026 at 3:21 PM ET.
Odds record
The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betmgm, betrivers, caesars, fanatics.
Accountability
Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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