NFL · Fri, Aug 28 · 9:00 PM

Minnesota Vikings at Denver Broncos

O/U 37.5 · SPREAD Denver Broncos -3.5 · Empower Field at Mile High

GARY'S PICK

NFL@ Broncos· -110

Final preseason night at Mile High puts the spotlight on reserves and roster decisions, with neither regular-season starting quarterback expected to play a major role. That makes Denver’s four-quarter case less convincing than its favorite price suggests. Minnesota held its first two preseason opponents to 10 and 13 points. In the 13-3 loss to Baltimore, the Vikings still averaged 5.2 yards per play against Baltimore’s 4.3, but turnovers and failed scoring opportunities prevented that movement from reaching the scoreboard. Denver’s two results have been much wider—allowing 7 points against Atlanta and 33 against Green Bay—and its 27-7 victory was helped by a defensive touchdown. Minnesota’s obstacle is clear: it did not score a touchdown against Baltimore and managed only 0.30 offensive points per drive. Denver can cover if its reserves reproduce the Atlanta performance. But Denver’s offense generated little after Bo Nix completed his two scoring drives against Green Bay, and Nix probably will not play here. Minnesota’s recent defense and the extra half-point provide the stronger verified four-quarter path in a potentially tight preseason finale.

The pick & result

Published pick: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 -110
Published odds: -110
Result: Awaiting grade
Final score: Not available

Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.

The read

Minnesota held its first two preseason opponents to 10 and 13 points. In the 13-3 loss to Baltimore, the Vikings still averaged 5.2 yards per play against Baltimore’s 4.3, but turnovers and failed scoring opportunities prevented that movement from reaching the scoreboard. Denver’s two results have been much wider—allowing 7 points against Atlanta and 33 against Green Bay—and its 27-7 victory was helped by a defensive touchdown.

Minnesota’s obstacle is clear: it did not score a touchdown against Baltimore and managed only 0.30 offensive points per drive. Denver can cover if its reserves reproduce the Atlanta performance. But Denver’s offense generated little after Bo Nix completed his two scoring drives against Green Bay, and Nix probably will not play here. Minnesota’s recent defense and the extra half-point provide the stronger verified four-quarter path in a potentially tight preseason finale.

Injuries noted

Minnesota Vikings: Elijah Williams (Questionable) — Ankle; Joshua Metellus (Questionable) — Shoulder; Jordan Addison (Questionable) — Addison (thumb) is expected to be close to a full participant at the Vikings' night practice Sunday, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.; Gavin Bartholomew (Questionable) — Back; Dwight McGlothern Jr. (Questionable) — Hip; Jay Ward (Questionable) — Ward was placed in the NFL's concussion protocol Sunday, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports.

Denver Broncos: Caleb Lohner (Questionable) — Lohner (lower body) does not yet have a return timeline, Luca Evans of The Denver Post reports.; Nick Gargiulo (PUP-P) — Knee - ACL; Michael Deiter (IR) — The Broncos placed Deiter (quadriceps) on injured reserve Thursday, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; J.K. Dobbins (Questionable) — Dobbins isn't in line to play in Friday's preseason game in Atlanta, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Matt Henningsen (IR) — The Broncos placed Henningsen (Achilles) on the reserve/injured list Saturday, Chris Tomasson of The Denver Gazette reports.; Marvin Mims Jr. (Questionable) — Mims (undisclosed) did not play in the Broncos' 27-7 preseason win over the Falcons on Friday.; Jaylen Waddle (Questionable) — Waddle (leg) isn't slated to play in Friday's preseason contest in Atlanta, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports.; Luke Wattenberg (Questionable) — Wattenberg (undisclosed) was a limited participant in Monday's practice, Jon Heath of broncoswire.com reports.; Levelle Bailey (Questionable) — Bailey broke his leg during the Broncos' 27-7 preseason win over the Falcons on Friday, Mike Klis of 9News Denver reports.

The research

The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.

QUARTERBACK

DEN averages +1 yards every time it drops back
1 Y/A
MIN is at 5.05 yards per pass attempt over 2 games; DEN is at 6.05 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.

TRENCHES

DEN is +28 rush yards per game
28 YPG
MIN is at 88 rushing yards per game over 2 games; DEN is at 116 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
MIN's front holds runners to 24.5 fewer yards per game
24.5 YPG
MIN is at 64 rushing yards allowed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 88.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-27.

PASS RUSH

MIN's rush gets home 1.5 more times per game
1.5 SACKS
MIN is at 2.5 sacks recorded per game over 2 games; DEN is at 1 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-27.
DEN's offense takes 1.5 fewer sacks per game
1.5 SACKS
MIN is at 3 sacks taken per game over 2 games; DEN is at 1.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
DEN's pocket leaks 13.5 fewer yards per game
13.5 YDS
MIN is at 20.5 sack yards lost per game over 2 games; DEN is at 7 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.

PACE & SCRIPT

DEN is scoring +12 points per game
12 PPG
MIN is at 8 points per game over 2 games; DEN is at 20 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
MIN's defense gives up 8.5 fewer points per game
8.5 PPG
MIN is at 11.5 points allowed per game over 2 games; DEN is at 20 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
DEN holds the ball 2:25 longer per game
2:25 TOP
MIN is at 29:24 time of possession per game over 2 games; DEN is at 31:49 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.

RED ZONE

DEN scores on +33.3% more of its red-zone trips
33.3%
MIN is at 33.3% red-zone scoring rate over 2 games; DEN is at 66.7% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.

MISMATCH

DEN's protection against a MIN front — MIN takes 3 sacks a game to DEN's 1.5
1.5 VS 3
The widest gap on this matchup's tape: sacks taken / g — MIN 3, DEN 1.5, over 2 and 2 game samples.

REPLACEMENT

Jaylen Waddle (WR) is questionable for DEN
QUESTIONABLE
Waddle (leg) isn't slated to play in Friday's preseason contest in Atlanta, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports. Reported Aug 14.
Marvin Mims Jr. (WR) is questionable for DEN
QUESTIONABLE
Mims (undisclosed) did not play in the Broncos' 27-7 preseason win over the Falcons on Friday. Reported Aug 15.
J.K. Dobbins (RB) is questionable for DEN
QUESTIONABLE
Dobbins isn't in line to play in Friday's preseason game in Atlanta, Parker Gabriel of The Denver Post reports. Reported Aug 14.
Jordan Addison (WR) is questionable for MIN
QUESTIONABLE
Addison (thumb) is expected to be close to a full participant at the Vikings' night practice Sunday, Ben Goessling of The Minnesota Star Tribune reports. Reported Aug 9.

SITUATIONAL

MIN (1-1) at DEN (1-1)
+7 PT GAP
MIN is 1-1, -7 points on the year, has lost 1 straight in the preseason. DEN is 1-1, +0 points on the year, has lost 1 straight in the preseason. MIN is 1-0 on the road; DEN is 0-1 at home.

All research from this day

About this analysis

Who made it: Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
Published data: Daily picks first stored August 27, 2026 at 3:21 PM ET.
Odds record: The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics, caesars.
Accountability: Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.

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