Arizona Cardinals at Green Bay Packers
O/U 36.5 · SPREAD Green Bay Packers -1.5 · Lambeau Field
Packers MoneylineThe pick & result
- Published pick
- Green Bay Packers ML -118
- Published odds
- -118
- Result
- Awaiting grade
- Final score
- Not available
Odds are the American price printed with this pick, not a current offer. Wins, losses and pushes remain on the public record; a missing grade is not a win.
The read
Friday night at Lambeau is less about regular-season hierarchy than which roster maintains its execution through a preseason finale. With backups and roster-bubble players expected to handle most of the work, I want the team with the stronger recent four-quarter performance without requiring it to win by multiple points.
Green Bay controlled its 33-13 victory over Denver from start to finish, with its offense, defense and special teams all contributing. Arizona arrives off a 34-13 loss to Dallas in which penalties erased two touchdowns, followed by its coach describing the preceding practice week as sloppy. Green Bay also has home field and seven days of rest compared with Arizona’s six.
Arizona supplied a legitimate counterargument by outperforming Green Bay in the joint-practice finishing periods, while Green Bay failed to score during all four of its two-minute periods. That keeps this from being a spread ticket. I prefer paying -108 for Green Bay simply to win instead of laying 1.5 points at +100; the moneyline better matches a narrow edge in a volatile preseason game.
Injuries noted
Arizona Cardinals: James Conner (Questionable) — Head coach Mike LaFleur said Saturday that there is no timeline for Conner (foot) to participate in 11-on-11 drills in training camp practice, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Tip Reiman (PUP-P) — Ankle; Josh Sweat (PUP-P) — Sweat (knee) could return from the active/PUP list as soon as this week, Howard Balzer of USA Today reports.; Garrett Williams (PUP-P) — Achilles; Joey Blount (IR) — The Cardinals placed Blount (neck) on injured reserve Saturday.; Zachary Carter (Questionable) — Cardinals head coach Mike LaFleur told reporters Friday that Carter is dealing with a knee injury and that it "doesn't look great," Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Kaleb Proctor (IR) — Knee - Meniscus; Xavier Weaver (Questionable) — Weaver is in concussion protocol after Thursday's preseason game versus the Panthers, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports.; Kenny Yeboah (IR) — The Cardinals placed Yeboah (hamstring) on injured reserve Saturday.; Carson Beck (Questionable) — Beck (ribs) is practicing Saturday, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.; Chase Bisontis (Out) — Head coach Mike LaFleur said Saturday that Bisontis (knee) will be placed on injured reserve, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports.; Jeremiyah Love (Questionable) — Head coach Mike LaFleur told reporters Saturday that Love will be sidelined for at least a week by an ankle injury that he sustained during the Cardinals' 27-14 preseason win over the Raiders on Thursday, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports.; Trey Benson (Questionable) — Benson (knee) did not play in Thursday's preseason game against the Cowboys and has no timeline for return, Howard Balzer of USA Today reports.; Elijah Higgins (Questionable) — Higgins (concussion) is progressing through the league's five-step concussion protocol and is close to returning, Howard Balzer of USA Today reports.
Green Bay Packers: Tucker Kraft (Questionable) — Kraft (knee) appears on track to be available for the Packers' Week 1 matchup with the Vikings on Sunday, Sept. 13, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.; Luke Musgrave (PUP-P) — Neck; Micah Parsons (PUP-P) — Knee - ACL; Jordon Riley (PUP-P) — Achilles; Carrington Valentine (Questionable) — Head coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday that the hope is Valentine (hamstring) is cleared to return to training camp practices next week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Matt Orzech (PUP-P) — Calf; Johnathan Baldwin II (IR) — Baldwin (knee) reverted to the Packers' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.; Javon Bullard (Questionable) — Bullard suffered a bone bruise to his right foot during Sunday's training camp practice, Ryan Wood of USA Today reports.; Domani Jackson (Questionable) — Head coach Matt LaFleur said Tuesday that Jackson is working his way back from core muscle surgery that he underwent in the offseason, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Josh Jacobs (Questionable) — Coach Matt LaFleur said Friday that Jacobs (groin) could potentially return to practice later next week, Weston Hodkiewicz of the Packers' official site reports.; Marlon Jones (IR) — Jones (undisclosed) reverted to the Packers' injured-reserve list Monday, per the NFL's transaction log.
The research
The dated measurements the app shows under this card — observations with their sample and source, not predictions.
QUARTERBACK
ARI's passing game is +89 yards per game
89 YPGARI is at 228 team passing yards per game over 3 games; GB is at 139 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
ARI averages +3.2 yards every time it drops back
3.2 Y/AARI is at 7.2 yards per pass attempt over 3 games; GB is at 4 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
TRENCHES
GB's front holds runners to 68.7 fewer yards per game
68.7 YPGARI is at 139.7 rushing yards allowed per game over 3 games; GB is at 71 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-27.
ARI is +53.5 rush yards per game
53.5 YPGARI is at 144 rushing yards per game over 3 games; GB is at 90.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
ARI gets +1.42 more yards a carry
1.42 Y/CARI is at 4.57 yards per rush attempt over 3 games; GB is at 3.15 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
PASS RUSH
ARI's pocket leaks 14.7 fewer yards per game
14.7 YDSARI is at 12.3 sack yards lost per game over 3 games; GB is at 27 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
GB's rush gets home 1.17 more times per game
1.17 SACKSARI is at 1.33 sacks recorded per game over 3 games; GB is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-27.
ARI's offense takes 1 fewer sacks per game
1 SACKSARI is at 2 sacks taken per game over 3 games; GB is at 3 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
PACE & SCRIPT
GB's defense gives up 6.5 fewer points per game
6.5 PPGARI is at 27 points allowed per game over 3 games; GB is at 20.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
ARI holds the ball 2:10 longer per game
2:10 TOPARI is at 33:10 time of possession per game over 3 games; GB is at 30:60 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
EXPLOSIVE PLAYS
ARI owns a +2.23 yards-per-play gap
2.23 Y/PARI is at 5.83 yards per play over 3 games; GB is at 3.6 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
RED ZONE
ARI gets inside the 20 1.83 more times per game
1.83 TRIPSARI is at 4.33 red-zone trips per game over 3 games; GB is at 2.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
MISMATCH
ARI's explosiveness against GB's — 5.83 yards a snap to 3.6
5.83 VS 3.6Arizona's picking up chunks of yardage on a huge share of its snaps, and Green Bay's defense has been giving up exactly that kind of play. That gap usually shows up as explosive plays that skip past the grind-it-out part of a drive, meaning Arizona doesn't need long, sustained series to put points on the board. Green Bay has to tackle in space and take away the big play first, because trying to out-execute Arizona snap-for-snap is already a losing rep for that defense.
COVERAGE
GB's defense surrenders 0.88 fewer yards a snap
0.88 Y/PARI is at 6.13 yards per play allowed over 3 games; GB is at 5.25 over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-27.
GB gets off the field on third down 9.9% more often
9.9%ARI is at 57.9% third downs allowed over 3 games; GB is at 48% over 2 games. Those come from the opposing team boxes in the games each side has already played this 2026 season, through 2026-08-27.
HEAD-TO-HEAD
ARI and GB have met once since 2025
1-0 SERIESThat one went down to the wire, Green Bay had to grind out a four-point win in Arizona to escape with it. Stealing a close one on the road is a good sign, and the Packers get to host this time instead of travel. Arizona will need to sharpen up from last time to turn a game that tight the other way.
REPLACEMENT
Carson Beck (QB) is questionable for ARI
QUESTIONABLEBeck (ribs) is practicing Saturday, Bo Brack of GoPHNX.com reports. Reported Aug 15.
Chase Bisontis (G) is out for ARI
OUTPlacing him on injured reserve isn't a game-day scratch, it's a transaction — Bisontis is out for a real chunk of time, and that guard spot is now a genuine opportunity for whoever's next on Arizona's interior line. The reps he would've taken this preseason go straight to that competition, and how the interior holds up in run blocking becomes the thing worth tracking. This is strictly an offensive line story, tucked inside the trenches at Green Bay tonight.
James Conner (RB) is questionable for ARI
QUESTIONABLEHead coach Mike LaFleur said Saturday that there is no timeline for Conner (foot) to participate in 11-on-11 drills in training camp practice, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. Reported Aug 15.
Xavier Weaver (WR) is questionable for ARI
QUESTIONABLEWeaver is in concussion protocol after Thursday's preseason game versus the Panthers, Tyler Drake of ArizonaSports.com reports. Reported Aug 7.
SITUATIONAL
ARI converts third downs at a +6.5% clip
6.5%ARI is at 51.4% third-down conversion rate over 3 games; GB is at 44.8% over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
ARI moves the chains 2.5 more times per game
2.5 FDARI is at 22 first downs per game over 3 games; GB is at 19.5 over 2 games. Those are current-2026 team-game results through 2026-08-27.
ARI (1-2) at GB (1-1)
+12 PT GAPArizona's record reads worse than Green Bay's, but Green Bay's plus-1 margin is basically a wash, so this one's tighter than 1-2 versus 1-1 makes it look. Arizona's got a road win already banked despite the losing mark overall, which counts for something in this setting. Green Bay hasn't played at home yet, so that side of the ledger is a blank page.
AFTER GARY
GB -118 → -105
NOW +2.91PPBETMGM · SAME BOOK · PRE-KICK
FANTASY USAGE
Trey McBride: 10.2 tgt/g in the 2025 baseline
10.2 TGT/GTrey McBride averaged 10.2 targets per game across 5 2025 regular-season games. BDL confirms Trey McBride is currently active for ARI; this is a labeled prior-season baseline, not current form. ARI faces GB next; this is measured opportunity, not a projection or snap-share estimate.
About this analysis
- Who made it
- Gary AI, an AI sports-analysis product operated by Gary A.I. LLC. No human reviewer is claimed unless one is explicitly named.
- Published data
- Daily picks first stored August 27, 2026 at 3:21 PM ET.
- Odds record
- The pick receipt shows the price printed in the published ticket. The matchup market and line ladder provide separate market context. Stored sportsbook sources: fanduel, draftkings, betrivers, betmgm, fanatics, caesars.
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- Read the editorial standards, source policy, and corrections process.
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