Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills

Thursday night in Orchard Park, the last exhibition of the summer, and the two most famous arms in this building will spend it in ball caps — Josh Allen confirmed down for the night with a headset and maybe a play sheet, Aaron Rodgers not starting for Pittsburgh. Sunday is the cutdown. What kicks off at seven o'clock is a job fair.

Which is exactly why I'm laying the number. A preseason finale is not decided by the names on the marquee; it's decided by whoever is standing behind them, and that is the one place this matchup separates. Buffalo hands the ball to Kyle Allen and Shane Buechele — a two-man competition between established professionals, with Kyle Allen carrying a 96.2 percent adjusted completion rate and zero turnover-worthy plays this preseason after going 10 of 12 for 128 yards and a touchdown at 10.7 yards per attempt in Cleveland. Pittsburgh, by its own stated plan, gives extended run to Will Howard and Drew Allar. Howard's most recent outing was 74 yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions and a 38.6 rating at 4.9 per attempt. Allar posted a 56.5 percent adjusted completion mark and took three sacks. That is not a knock on either young passer's future — it is a statement about who is more likely to execute cleanly across four quarters tonight.

The evidence that matters most here is the game Buffalo already played under these exact conditions. In Cleveland, Joe Brady rested the top of his offense and the Bills still outgained the Browns 368 to 194, averaged 6.5 yards per play to 3.7, and shut Cleveland out in the second half — with a 71-yard touchdown coming from the third layer of the depth chart in the third quarter. That is reserve-phase production in a reserve-phase game, which is the only currency that spends tonight. Behind it, Ray Davis and Buffalo's backup runners have combined for 231 rushing yards and three touchdowns this preseason, and the Bills have scored 29 and 31 in their two outings for a 60-21 aggregate.

I've given the other side a real hearing. Pittsburgh's 17-0 loss overstates the beating — they reached the red zone once, put together a 10-play, 47-yard drive, hit a 38-yard completion, and came away with nothing, with both interceptions landing on the Jets' side of the field where a turnover kills your own points without gifting the opponent a short field. Eight days earlier the same roster won 28-9. Mike McCarthy has been blunt about wanting cleaner detail and execution, and his bubble players have loud public reasons to deliver it. That's a legitimate case for the points, and it's the reason this isn't a large position.

Where it loses me is that the shutout has a non-random explanation sitting right next to it. Pittsburgh's offensive line has been the club's most repeatedly flagged issue all camp, it surrendered four sacks in that game, and the protection was described as shaky throughout — which is precisely the condition that turns a developing quarterback into a 38.6 rating. Buffalo isn't spotless either; the Bills have trimmed real bodies off this roster in the last week, and if the backup job is effectively decided there's less reason to run Kyle Allen deep into the night. But Buffalo's depth held at every layer in Cleveland, not just the top one. At -2.5 laying -122, I'd rather buy the three points of cushion at that price than pay -152 for a one-point win, because if this edge is real it should show up as more than a field goal.