Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens

This is exactly the spot where value lives: Ravens–Steelers in early December, both sitting at 6–6 and staring at a de facto elimination game. Baltimore is just 3–4 at home this year while Pittsburgh is 2–3 on the road (records: BAL 6–6 with 3–4 at home, PIT 6–6 with 2–3 away), which screams grind-it-out more than shootout. These two have split things pretty evenly over their last 10 meetings (Pittsburgh 5–5, Baltimore 4–6 in that span), and when they met twice in 2023 both games finished 17–10 (just 27 total points each time).

Everyone’s focused on Lamar Jackson’s MVP-level upside, but the underlying profile of these teams has been defense-first in recent years. Last season Baltimore allowed just 16.5 points per game (best in the league) while scoring 28.4 per game (top‑5), a strong differential that actually encourages them to lean on their defense and run game when they get leads. Pittsburgh, meanwhile, has been living in rock fights for two straight seasons, averaging under 20 points per game on offense in 2023 (about 17.9 PPG) while the defense kept them afloat by holding opponents to 19.1 PPG. The numbers don’t lie – this is a pairing of one elite defense and one very sturdy defense that both prefer slower, physical football to track meets.

Here’s how I see this playing out. Lamar Jackson will still get his, but it’s more methodical than explosive – think 67.2% completions and 8.0 yards per attempt like last year, but paired with 5.5 yards per rush on designed runs that chew clock instead of piling up 40-yard bombs. Zay Flowers gives Baltimore a reliable chain-mover (77 catches for 858 yards and 5 TDs as a rookie) while the backs hammer between the tackles. On the other side, Pittsburgh’s identity stays the same: Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren splitting touches, with Najee’s track record of topping 1,200 scrimmage yards in each of his first three seasons showing he’s a volume grinder, not a home-run hitter. T.J. Watt’s pass rush (19 sacks last year) and Minkah Fitzpatrick’s ball skills (18 career interceptions) tilt this game toward field position and third‑down stops, not shootout chaos.

Recent form backs the under narrative. Both teams are just 2–3 in their last five. Pittsburgh’s offense has sputtered badly in losses of 30–14, 16–13, and 26–7 recently (three games of 14 points or fewer: 14, 13, and 7), and even in their win they needed defensive and short-field help to get to 30. Baltimore’s last five include a 7–10 loss and a 25–0 win – two games where their opponent was held to 10 or fewer, but their own offense has only cleared 25 once in that stretch. When both defenses are capable of putting up that kind of suppression and both offenses have multiple recent games in the teens or single digits, any total hung in a typical NFL range is going to look a little too high.

This screams value to me because the market knows this is a defensive rivalry, but it still has to post a number that accounts for Lamar’s ceiling and modern scoring norms. In reality, everything about these two clubs – 6–6 records, recent offensive inconsistency, and defensive star power – points toward another 20–17, 19–16 type of AFC North slugfest. Lock this in.

That’s why I’m riding with the Steelers–Ravens Under at -110. The only way this misses is if we get multiple non-offensive touchdowns or a completely out-of-character offensive explosion from one side, which is not the way these teams usually dance in December.