Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills

I love this spot for Buffalo at home in December with the Bengals walking in shorthanded. The records tell you the baseline story: Buffalo is 8-4 overall and 5-1 at home (8-4 overall, 5-1 at home), while Cincinnati is sitting at 4-8 and just 2-4 on the road (4-8 overall, 2-4 away). Recent form tilts the field too: in their last three listed games the Bills have hung 37, 45, and 23 points (35.0 points per game in that stretch), while the Bengals have managed 34, 7, and 3 (14.7 points per game over those three). That scoring gap of over 20 points per game in current form is exactly the kind of indicator I want when I’m laying a short number.

Everyone’s focused on Joe Burrow versus Josh Allen, but Trey Hendrickson being doubtful is the key to this whole game. Hendrickson was Cincinnati’s premier closer off the edge last season (17.5 sacks in 2023), and without him that front four loses its teeth. The numbers don’t lie – this Bengals defense already gave up more than 23 points per game last year (23.4 points allowed per game in 2023) and was soft on the ground (4.8 yards per carry allowed in 2023), and now they’re likely missing their best pass rusher. That’s a terrible recipe against Josh Allen, who accounted for 44 total touchdowns last season (4,306 passing yards with 29 passing TDs and 15 rushing TDs in 2023).

Here’s how I see this playing out: even with questions at tackle in front of him, Allen’s dual-threat profile smooths over protection issues. When protection breaks down he’s still moving the chains with his legs (524 rushing yards in 2023) and finding James Cook as an outlet (1,567 scrimmage yards for Cook in 2023). Buffalo has been piling up points lately (35.0 points per game over those last three) and has historically been a different animal at home, averaging close to 30 points per game in Orchard Park over the last few seasons (roughly 28–30 points per game at home from 2020–2023). Against a Bengals defense that just surrendered 20 and 30 in two recent losses (25.0 points allowed per game in those two defeats), Buffalo should live in the mid-to-high 20s if not the 30s.

On the flip side, Cincinnati’s offense has been wildly volatile in these recent results. Yes, there’s the 34-point outburst in the win (34 points in that Bengals victory), but bookending that are games of 7 and 3 points (5.0 points per game across those two losses). Now fold in the likelihood that they’re down a premier edge rusher on defense and dealing with a key receiver in Tee Higgins being in the concussion protocol (Higgins listed as questionable), and you’re asking Burrow to play near-perfect football against a Buffalo defense that’s been a top-tier scoring unit recently (under 19 points allowed per game in 2023). That’s a lot to ask on the road in December against a team that’s 5-1 in this building.

This is exactly the spot where value lives: strong home team, clear recent scoring edge, and a critical injury on the underdog’s defense that the market never fully prices in. With Buffalo’s offensive ceiling and Cincinnati’s inconsistency, I see the Bills winning this by a touchdown or more more often than not (projected margin in the 7–10 point range). Lock this in: give me the Buffalo Bills -3.5 -110 and let Allen and that home-field advantage do the heavy lifting.

Only way this misses is if Buffalo’s offensive line injuries spiral, leading to multiple turnovers and a rare low-scoring outing that keeps Cincinnati hanging around inside the number.