Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers

I love this spot for Green Bay because this is classic Lambeau in December with two teams that both look like playoff outfits on paper (Packers 8-3-1 overall, Bears 9-3 overall). Chicago has shown it can handle road trips (5-2 record away from home), but Green Bay has quietly protected its own turf (4-2 at home) and has been tough to put away here for months (three straight wins coming in). The market is going to respect that Bears win streak, but underneath the records the way these teams score and the way their games flow tells a different story (Bears W5 vs Packers W3, with recent sample scores of 23-27, 14-13, 29-23 for Chicago and 34-37, 20-35, 37-31 for Green Bay).

This one's interesting – Green Bay's offense has been playing in track meets while Chicago has been living on a knife’s edge in tighter, lower-scoring battles (Packers putting up 34, 20, and 37 in those recent games vs Bears at 23, 14, and 29). Over that stretch, the numbers don’t lie – Green Bay is averaging about 30 points per outing compared to roughly 22 for Chicago (91 total Packers points over three games vs 66 for the Bears). Jordan Love has already shown he can carry a high‑ceiling passing attack over a full season (4,159 passing yards and 32 touchdowns in 2023), while Justin Fields’ profile still tilts toward his legs being a major weapon more than consistent pocket efficiency (1,143 rushing yards and 8 rushing TDs in 2022). At the same time, Bears games are being decided by a field goal or less far too often, which is tough to sustain on the road (Chicago’s last three decided by margins of 4, 1, and 6 points). When you pair that with Green Bay’s overall form in the larger sample, the gap gets wider (Packers 8-2 in their last 10 in the trend sample vs Bears just 2-8).

On the other side of the ball, Green Bay’s defense has sprung some leaks, but it’s mostly been about giving up big totals in shootouts rather than getting bullied for four quarters (allowing 37, 35, and 31 in those same three games). Chicago’s defense has kept scores a bit more modest, but they’re still giving up about three touchdowns a game over that run (27, 13, and 23 allowed, or 63 total points across three contests). Losing interior lineman Devonte Wyatt for the year dings Green Bay’s run front, taking one of their primary big bodies out of the rotation (one starting‑caliber defensive tackle ruled out for the season). Meanwhile, Chicago’s front seven and secondary are banged up with multiple linebackers and a corner on the injury report, which threatens the depth you need to deal with a full game of layered route concepts and play‑action shots (three linebackers and one corner listed with injury designations). With both sides roughly even in turnover luck, the edge shifts to who can consistently finish drives instead of counting on fluky takeaways (turnover margin sitting around 0 for each team according to the trend data).

Let me tell you why I’m confident here: Green Bay uses that home crowd and aggressive play‑calling to jump in front early, leaning into the same firepower that has already produced two 34+ point outbursts in their recent run (34 and 37 points in those games). That forces Chicago to open things up more than they’d like, and this is where their offense has struggled to separate on the scoreboard even in wins (only 14 and 29 points in their last two victories). In a game where both teams are winning overall but trending very differently against comparable competition, I trust the side that has been cashing more often in that extended recent sample (Packers 8-2 vs Bears 2-8 in that 10‑game stretch). The public is going to look at 9‑3 Chicago and the five‑game win streak and want the Bears at plus money or short points, but Green Bay’s underlying scoring profile and home edge justify backing them to simply win the football game (Bears 9-3 and W5 vs Packers 8-3-1 and 4-2 at home, with typical NFL home field worth roughly 2.5–3 points in expectation). That’s why I’m riding with the Green Bay Packers moneyline at standard juice in this matchup (effectively pricing this around a small favorite in the -110 range).

Only way this misses is if Green Bay’s defense completely falls apart again and turns every Bears drive into seven instead of three, replaying the worst of those recent shootouts (like the 37 and 35 they surrendered in two of their last three).