Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins

I’m laying it with Buffalo because a -535 moneyline paired with a -9.5 spread on the road screams separation, and when books hang near double digits away from home, the median outcome is two scores. The 50.5 total signals enough possessions for the better side to stretch the lead, and the -112 shading on Bills -9.5 (versus -108 on Miami) tells you the house is comfortable making you pay to back the favorite. The only worry is a late backdoor from a home dog, but that risk is already baked into 9.5 and the market still taxed the Bills side, which is my cue that the cover is the right side—have the guts to ride with me.