Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings

I’m grabbing the home dog with the hook because the market is telling us this stays tight—Baltimore’s -225 moneyline alongside a spread stuck at -3.5 and juiced to -115 points to a one-score game, not a runaway. That makes Minnesota +3.5 at -105 the sharper side, since we’re getting the key half point at cheaper juice in their own building. The risk is Baltimore stretches it to two scores, but if books believed that they’d be hanging -4 or worse, so the combo of -225 ML and -3.5 spread says the hook is likely to matter—got the guts to ride with me?